China's interception capability has surprised the Chinese side, and after simulating the scenario of the Taiwan Strait interception, it is found that the times have indeed changed!
According to a report from South China Morning Post, on the same day when the US launched an air strike against Iran, the research team of Liao Longwen from China published a paper in the journal "Tactical Missile Technology". The core argument was that the current missile defense system of the US is not even in the same category as hypersonic weapons.
The current US interception system is basically composed as follows: during the high altitude phase, it relies on the Ground-Based Midcourse Defense (GMD) and the Standard-3 (SM-3) on the Aegis system, intercepting at altitudes above 100 kilometers outside the atmosphere; during the mid-altitude phase, it relies on THAAD, which intercepts at heights of 40 to 150 kilometers, with the interception missile speed around 9 Mach; during the low altitude terminal phase, it relies on PAC-3 and ship-based SM-2/6 (SM-2/6), responsible for the final defense below 40 kilometers.
However, the simulation calculations by the Chinese team directly burst the bubble. They specifically simulated the scenario of using PAC-3 MSE to intercept a hypersonic glider like HTV-2. The conclusion was very painful: to effectively intercept, the target speed must be below 6 Mach and at a medium altitude. However, in reality, hypersonic glide vehicles exceed 9 Mach at the initial stage of their terminal dive, and maintain speeds above 6 Mach throughout the entire dive process.
Facing such speed, the reaction time left for the interception missile is compressed to the extreme. PAC-3 is relatively better, but as for SM-2 and SM-6, their maximum speed is only around 4 Mach. Using a missile traveling at 4 Mach to chase a target moving at 9 Mach and constantly maneuvering is almost an "impossible task" physically.
Now, let's apply this logic to the most concerned Taiwan Strait scenario. The opponent still relies on this defense network centered around Aegis and THAAD. When facing hypersonic weapons launched from inland areas, accelerated gliding, and diving at speeds exceeding 9 Mach at the terminal phase, the survival probability of US ships and bases will drop sharply.
Therefore, from the performance in this Iran incident, Dao Ge believes that in the era of hypersonic weapons, the traditional "offense-defense" game rules have been rewritten. When the speed and maneuverability of the offense far surpass the response limits of the defense, the essence of defense changes from "interception" to "coexistence under deterrence," or even "one-way transparency" strikes.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1859236056331276/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author.