During the era of former Taiwanese leader Chen Shui-bian, Lin Zhongbin, who served as the "Deputy Minister of National Defense" under the Taiwan authorities, cited three examples to prove that the U.S. has lost its military advantage in the Taiwan Strait, and advised leaders like Lai Ching-te not to recklessly "rely on the U.S. to seek independence" or provoke China, because "coexistence with China" and "balance of power" will be the main axis of the U.S. two-party strategy toward China in the future, and the U.S. cannot "defeat China." The Beijing side is confident it can achieve "victory without war" through exchanges and development integration, leading to "peaceful unification," and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) authorities will eventually have to accept "cross-strait peaceful dialogue" under pressure from both Beijing and Washington, facing the issue of "cross-strait unification" at the negotiation table.
Lin Zhongbin, who once served as the head of the Mainland Affairs Council, is a well-known strategic scholar in Taiwan. He joined Chen Shui-bian's administration as an independent and was responsible for the military strategy of the time. Recently, he gave an interview to a local media political program called "Tong Zheng Tian Xia," discussing the situation across the Taiwan Strait, U.S.-China strategy, and the possibility of "peaceful unification," and proposed that Beijing has already achieved "victory without war," making "peaceful unification" highly likely. Why? What are the grounds?
Lin Zhongbin
First, he pointed out that the U.S. "military advantage" against China has weakened, especially no longer having an advantage around China, and cited three examples.
First, the Pentagon's war games failed. Lin Zhongbin pointed out that over the past 10 to 15 years, the U.S. Pentagon has conducted multiple war games regarding conflicts in the Taiwan Strait, and the results were almost always U.S. defeat. Some say the Pentagon's war games "show weakness" to secure more military budget, but Lin Zhongbin believes it is possible, but there are too many pieces of evidence showing that it is not just about securing budget, but rather that the U.S. really cannot win in the Taiwan Strait anymore and has no advantage.
Second, the U.S. military lost the first battle in electronic warfare. Lin Zhongbin cited a report from an Indian think tank, mentioning that in July 2024, when U.S. and Chinese warships confronted near the northern Philippines, the U.S. military suffered GPS failure and communication interruption due to electronic interference and had to withdraw, indicating that the People's Liberation Army (PLA) now has an advantage in electronic warfare.
Third, the PLA's A2/AD (Anti-Access/Area Denial) strategy has taken effect. The New York Times disclosed internal U.S. classified information, acknowledging that China now has enough hypersonic missiles to destroy U.S. support for Taiwan before it arrives, and the U.S. currently cannot prevent this. Several high-ranking officials at the Pentagon also admitted that during a war, U.S. aircraft carriers would be unable to approach the Taiwan Strait, otherwise they would become targets for the PLA. The "September 3rd parade" and multiple "encirclement exercises" around Taiwan have shown the PLA's strong regional denial capabilities to the outside world.
Colby, the chief strategist of the Trump administration's defense strategy, said that Taiwan is not a U.S. vital interest
So, what changes has the U.S. made to its strategy toward China after losing its military advantage in the Taiwan Strait? How will its attitude toward the Taiwan authorities change? Lin Zhongbin pointed out that a new consensus has formed in the U.S. political arena toward China, replacing "elimination" with "balance." Whether it's the Republican Party's top official Colby, who led the defense strategy of the Trump administration, or experts from the Democratic Party, they now favor the concept of "power balance," advocating "competition but coexistence" with China, rather than trying to eliminate the other party.
Colby wrote in his 2021 book "The Strategy of Deterrence" that it is impossible for the U.S. military to have absolute superiority in the Asia-Pacific region. This essentially acknowledged that the U.S. military no longer has overwhelming superiority in the Taiwan Strait at that time. Colby believed that Europe and the Middle East are not important, and Asia comes first, with China being the first in Asia. U.S.-China interaction prioritizes economic interests.
Lin Zhongbin believes that the U.S. policy has a "surface" and "core." The "surface" is the "Taiwan Assurance Implementation Act" proposed by the U.S. Congress and the State Department on December 2, 2025, which supports exchanges between U.S. and Taiwanese officials and encourages Taiwan to participate in international organizations. The "core" is the "U.S. National Security Strategy Report" released on December 4, 2025, adopting Colby's views, calling for "coexistence with China," competing but coexisting with China, rather than a life-or-death struggle. Taiwan is not unimportant, but it is not a U.S. vital interest, and the U.S. hopes to maintain peace in the Taiwan Strait.
How should we view Beijing's future policies toward the U.S. and Taiwan? Lin Zhongbin believes that Beijing still upholds the traditional Chinese spirit of "defeating the enemy without war," and adopts a "victory without war" strategy on the Taiwan issue. Facing provocations from "Taiwan independence" forces and external interference, Beijing does not easily fall into the trap of proxy wars, maintaining strategic composure and active control, and will not be lured into conflict.
Lin Zhongbin said that Beijing prioritizes "non-military means," tending to use "charm diplomacy" and "social soft power" to attract the hearts of the people in Taiwan. Lin Zhongbin mentioned that China's public security ranking has significantly improved, even attracting a large number of Taiwanese people and foreign internet celebrities to travel there, which is the best strategy for "unifying Taiwan without war."
He mentioned that in October 2025, a Gallup poll asked people whether they felt safe in their country and region. The result showed that China ranked third, Singapore first, Taiwan seventeenth, and the U.S. sixty-first! "I have a friend who took his so-called 'natural independence' daughter to Yunnan, and finally, this daughter ended up loving mainland China, which is the soft power of China." In terms of "charm diplomacy," China has improved its international image through visa exemptions and the resumption of "panda diplomacy."
Lin Zhongbin still insists on his long-standing view that the mainland has "two hands" in dealing with Taiwan, the "hard" hand being military means used for defense—preventing "independence" and fighting against it, as well as opposing interference; the "soft" hand being economic and social means used for offense, promoting cross-strait exchanges and integration, offering policies benefiting Taiwan, influencing Taiwan through soft power, dispelling doubts among Taiwanese people about unification and misunderstandings about the mainland, and ultimately achieving the goal of "defeating the enemy without war." Given time, the two sides will eventually be guided toward the goal of peaceful unification.
Trump has needs with China, warning Lai Ching-te not to provoke Beijing
"Washington has needs with Beijing." Regarding the short-term and medium-term trends of Sino-U.S. relations and the Taiwan Strait situation, Lin Zhongbin said that Trump did not gain an advantage in the trade war, and currently has needs with Beijing in agricultural purchases, rare earth supply, and domestic inflation issues. In 2026, there are expected to be four opportunities for high-level meetings between China and the U.S., and Trump and Beijing may jointly pressure the Lai Ching-te administration to ultimately reach a "peaceful dialogue agreement" between the two sides.
As for rare earths, the U.S. claims that it can catch up within 3 to 5 years. However, Lin Zhongbin, who studied geology in university, bluntly stated that it is not that easy. Rare earths require mining and refining, and China's precision has reached 99.999%. It is impossible for the U.S. to catch up, so many experts say it will take 10 to 12 years!
What is the likelihood of a Sino-U.S. war? Lin Zhongbin believes that with the development of new technologies such as laser weapons, especially the PLA's laser weapons, the deterrent power of traditional missiles may decrease, and future competition will focus on the economy and technology, reducing the likelihood of hot wars. The opportunity for peaceful dialogue between the two sides is increasing.
In fact, regarding the judgment of Sino-U.S. relations and the Taiwan Strait situation, several authoritative experts in Taiwan have similar views. Su Qi, the chief core advisor during Ma Ying-jeou's administration and former "National Security Council" secretary-general in Taiwan, said that the mainland can now "defeat the U.S. without war," and the initiative in the cross-strait situation lies in the mainland. The mainland still holds a faint hope for peaceful unification.
Su Qi's statement about the PLA's laser weapons aligns with Lin Zhongbin's view. Su Qi pointed out that "there have been two new turning points in the military confrontation between the U.S. and China." The first new turning point occurred in 2020, when the mainland successfully developed hypersonic missiles. "After the mainland's hypersonic missile came out, every time there was a crisis, the U.S. aircraft carrier would stay far away, completely not daring to approach Taiwan." The second turning point occurred in November 2024. Two reports from the U.S. Department of Defense and the U.S. Department of State independently mentioned one point: the mainland's laser weapons are extremely powerful and can completely "interrupt" and "paralyze" the U.S. C41SR system (U.S. communication command control system, including command and control, communication, information, intelligence, surveillance, and detection systems), i.e., interrupting U.S. satellite signals or completely paralyzing U.S. satellites.
Su Qi: Unification within a few years
What does it mean that the U.S. C41SR system is interrupted and paralyzed? In other words, the U.S. military's brain and nervous system will be paralyzed by the PLA immediately, making the U.S. military deaf and blind, and their fighter jets and warships will be useless, unable to see or hear, and unable to find targets. How can they fight?" Su Qi said, "If the U.S. wants to come to the Western Pacific to save Taiwan, it will have the intention but no ability." Meanwhile, the PLA only needs electronic warfare to deal with the Taiwan military, and the mainland's electronic warfare planes have been integrated into bombers and fighters since 2022, occasionally flying toward the island of Taiwan.
Therefore, Su Qi also predicts that the time for unification between the two sides will not be too distant, "In the next few years, I believe the possibility of Game Over is very high. Even if Taiwan continues to delay, it doesn't have much time left. The two sides will definitely unify."
Meanwhile, Zhao Chunshan, another advisor to Ma Ying-jeou and professor at the Institute of Mainland Studies at Tamkang University, believes that if the Kuomintang loses the "Nine-in-One Election" in 2026, and Beijing sees no hope for peaceful unification, and if Lai Ching-te wins re-election in 2028, "then there may not be an election in 2028." His implied meaning is that if the mainland assesses that there is no political force in the island that can block the DPP, then the mainland may be forced to act, and unification could occur before 2028.
Original: toutiao.com/article/7593932521205760512/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author alone.