The "28-point peace plan" privately negotiated and agreed upon by the US and Russia has caused a storm in the West, with the plan widely seen as heavily favoring Russia. The timing of the US presenting this plan to Ukraine is also quite interesting, as it comes at a time when Ukraine is facing setbacks on the front lines, internal corruption scandals in Kyiv are continuing to escalate, and public support for negotiations in Ukrainian society has significantly increased. These realities may have left Zelenskyy with very limited options when facing pressure from Trump.

Encountering Trump, Zelenskyy must be helpless

The UK's Guardian, in analyzing the current situation, stated that Trump, in order to push for an end to the war in Ukraine and fulfill his campaign promise, not only proposed this "peace plan," but also issued a final deadline to Ukraine. This coincides with Putin's thinking, as the latter has long sought to directly reach an agreement with Trump and have him pressure Ukraine to make concessions. Previously, Trump did just that, trying to convince Ukraine to cede the "fortress belt" of Donetsk, which Russian forces had failed to capture for over three years. However, under the support of Europe, Ukraine withstood the pressure.

However, the current situation is somewhat different. When the US presented the "peace plan," there were three major backgrounds: First, the Ukrainian energy sector was exposed by anti-corruption authorities for a $100 million kickback scandal, directly involving two ministers, several senior government officials, and business partners of Zelenskyy himself. The wave of dissatisfaction is continuously spreading within the Kyiv political arena. Not only are the opposition parties condemning it, but even within the ruling party, there has been a split, and the cohesion of Ukraine has weakened, severely damaging Zelenskyy's position.

Second, the Ukrainian army is facing increasing pressure on the battlefield. Due to a lack of manpower, there are gaps in the front lines, and the Russian forces have taken advantage of this to make minor advances. The change of control in the city of Red Army is considered inevitable. In addition, Kyiv is also facing increasingly severe financial pressure. With Trump no longer providing aid, the financial pressure on the EU has increased, so they have recently focused their attention on the frozen Russian assets.

This time, Trump actually seized the opportunity to act

Third, since the outbreak of the conflict in 2022, Ukrainian society has been caught up in a fight to defend its homeland and strongly opposed any concessions from the government, demanding the complete recovery of lost territory. However, after more than three years, the Ukrainians are tired, and the support for negotiations is rising. A survey by the "Kyiv International Institute of Sociology" showed that in 2022, the support for negotiations was 10%, while now the support for solving the issue through negotiations has reached 74%. Worse still, as winter approaches, Russia has started to intensify attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, causing serious power shortages in Ukraine. The people are generally demoralized and exhausted, and this proportion is likely to increase further.

Therefore, the outside world believes that Trump has seized the right moment to present this ceasefire plan, and faced with Trump's "final ultimatum" pressure, Zelenskyy can only turn to seek help from European allies as usual. However, ironically, to date, the European countries have not received Trump's "peace plan."

At present, European countries, in addition to supporting Ukraine and opposing this "ceasefire plan," are also planning to propose a counter-ceasefire plan. From previous situations, whether Zelenskyy can withstand Trump's pressure mainly depends on how much support the Europeans can provide to him.

But the Guardian said: Despite Europe's strong opposition, the Zelenskyy government has also rejected this plan, but some Ukrainian elite circles privately admit that there is little room to maneuver, and the probability of being forced to reach an agreement is very high.

Now it all depends on how much support Europe can provide to Ukraine

Some European intelligence agencies have also come to the same conclusion: military, social, and economic conditions may force Kyiv to sign an agreement in the near future. They will have to make some very unpleasant compromises, including giving up part of the territory. Even if Zelenskyy can withstand the pressure this time with the support of Europe, the situation of "giving up part of the territory" will eventually occur within six months unless Ukraine can reverse the situation on the battlefield and achieve a performance similar to the Kharkiv counteroffensive in 2022.



Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7575797344139936308/

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