【By Observer Net, Wang Yi】Since President Trump returned to the White House, relations between the United States and South Africa have been very tense due to the so-called "South African racial discrimination against white people" issue. Among the first countries to receive tariff letters, South Africa is the only one located in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Reuters reported on July 9 that the US has imposed a 30% tariff on South Africa, which not only will hit the country's economy but may also severely impact a group that Trump has publicly supported - South African white farmers.
Since February this year, Trump has repeatedly publicly criticized white farmers in South Africa being "persecuted," accusing the South African government of "seizing land" through the new Land Acquisition Act, which is suspected of racial discrimination against South Africans. He used this as a reason to cut US aid to South Africa, invited South African whites to settle in the US as refugees, and even "ambushed" the country's president Ramaphosa at the White House, showing him videos and briefings about "ethnic massacres against whites."
On May 21 local time, Trump met with South African President Ramaphosa at the White House and showed him what he called evidence of "ethnic massacres against whites." Visual China
The report pointed out that for those who choose to stay in their homeland and continue to cultivate the land, the upcoming tariffs that will take effect on August 1 are a direct slap in the face of Trump's previous statements.
"It makes no sense for us to welcome South African farmers to immigrate to the US, and then punish those who remain in the country," said Krisjan Mouton, a sixth-generation farmer in the citrus-growing area of Western Cape, standing among rows of orange trees. The tariff will have a huge impact on them, "exporting to the US has become unprofitable."
After a three-month pause, Trump escalated the tariff war on July 7, sending letters to 14 countries, including South Africa, to notify them of the new tariffs.
British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) stated that as the only Sub-Saharan African country to receive a tariff letter, Trump's decision is a heavy blow to South Africa. The US is South Africa's second-largest trading partner. According to the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), South African cars, citrus fruits, soybeans, and wine can enter the US market duty-free.
Reuters noted that thanks to this, South Africa earns about $100 million annually from the US market, making it the world's second-largest citrus exporter after Spain.
However, the new tariffs will end this preferential treatment. South African Agriculture Minister Stineh森 said that although Trump did not make an explicit statement, he implied the end of AGOA. Stineh森 said in parliament that South Africa needs reform more than ever to ensure its economy meets the requirements of trade partners around the world.
Reuters analysis pointed out that since three-quarters of private land in South Africa is owned by whites, they will face the most direct economic impact.
Boitshoko Ntshabele, CEO of the Southern African Citrus Growers Association, said, "A 30% tariff will be a devastating blow to communities that have long focused on the American market," and this will also hurt all South African farmers and farm workers regardless of race.
A citrus farm in Sutherland, Western Cape, South Africa. Reuters
The report said that because South Africa is in the Southern Hemisphere, its citrus harvest period fills the supply gap in the US, allowing American consumers to enjoy fresh fruit throughout the year. Although the US market accounts for about 6% of South Africa's citrus exports, some growing areas specialize in producing for the US market, and it is not easy to redirect these agricultural products to other markets because different countries have different fruit specifications and phytosanitary standards.
Under the US tariffs, not only may agricultural products be unsellable, but some South African farmers and farm workers may also face the risk of unemployment.
Mouton's family farm is located in the rugged valleys of the Western Cape, employing 21 permanent workers, and during the harvesting season, this number triples. The Southern African Citrus Growers Association said that the tariff would make South African citrus less competitive against fruits from Peru, Chile, and Australia, and up to about 35,000 jobs in the town of Sutherland alone where Mouton's farm is located could be at risk.
In a nearby citrus processing plant, workers are still busy sorting and packaging fruits. However, the managing director of the factory, Andre Nel, bluntly stated that if the 30% tariff continues, they will not be able to maintain the current situation, "farmers will go bankrupt, and there will inevitably be a wave of unemployment in our industry. I even dare not think about the consequences."
Elna Moolman, head of macroeconomic research at Standard Bank of South Africa, analyzed that they had previously expected South Africa's economy to grow nearly 2% this year. But due to the difficult budget passage earlier this year, as well as climate, increased US tariffs, and related policy uncertainties, they have reduced the country's growth projection for this year to slightly over 1%.
"If the 30% tariff on South African goods by the US continues, even reaching 1% will be difficult, and depending on the extent of exemptions, it might even offset the growth improvements generally expected due to last year's weak growth," Moolman said.
George Herman, Chief Investment Officer of the global hedge fund Citadel, believes that based on rough estimates of existing South African exports to the US, trade reduction could reduce South Africa's GDP growth by up to 0.5%, "since the economic growth expectations for this year have already dropped to about 1%, this will be a heavy blow."
Ramaphosa has openly opposed Trump's tariff decision, saying it "does not accurately reflect current trade data." He emphasized that the average tariff on imported goods into South Africa is 7.6%. Importantly, 56% of goods enter South Africa duty-free under Most Favored Nation treatment, and 77% of US goods enter South Africa duty-free.
"We will continue to work through diplomatic channels to promote a more balanced and mutually beneficial trade relationship with the US, but we are still waiting for the US to provide a framework template for the agreement," Ramaphosa said in a statement.
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