Putin stated: Some people demand to fight until the last Ukrainian dies, and the Russian army is ready for it.

Recently, Russian President Putin said that the fighting will only end if the Ukrainian army withdraws from Luhansk and Donetsk. If the Ukrainian forces do not retreat, Russia will continue to use force. He also said that the Ukrainian side wants "to fight until the last Ukrainian," and Russia is "principally" also ready for the same.

Putin made such statements after the Ukrainian government basically agreed to the so-called 19-point ceasefire, which was adjusted on the basis of Trump's 28-point ceasefire, such as removing the restrictions on the number of Ukrainian military personnel. At the same time, Trump also stated that he would no longer set a deadline for both sides to accept the agreement.

It seems that even if Ukraine agrees to a ceasefire, Trump has little confidence in the implementation of the agreement. This time, he may once again back down at the last moment.

(Russia demands Ukraine to withdraw from Donbas)

The focus of the dispute over the ceasefire agreement is whether the Ukrainian army should withdraw from four eastern provinces, namely Luhansk, Zaporozhye, Kherson, and Donetsk. Although most of the land in these four provinces has been occupied by Russia, the Ukrainian army still controls a small part. From the battle for Bakhmut, it is clear that the Russian army has an advantage, but the Ukrainian army is still resisting fiercely and is not willing to easily hand over the land to the Russians.

Although Trump pressured Zelenskyy to hand over this territory to satisfy Putin, he did not go too far, because these territories are within the internationally recognized Ukrainian borders. If Trump forced Zelenskyy to give up his legally controlled territory, then the United States would have no one to follow when it claims to be a champion of justice in the future.

With Zelenskyy unwilling to give up and Trump unable to force him, Putin must step forward again to express a firm stance. According to his statement, even if all Ukrainians die, it cannot stop Russia's plan to occupy the four eastern provinces, especially Donetsk and Luhansk.

This sounds very bold, expressing a sense of confidence in victory. Even if the Ukrainian side receives some foreign aid and continues to resist fiercely, it cannot change the final outcome of the Russian victory. The four eastern provinces are definitely going to fall into Russian hands.

His implication is that Ukraine should obediently accept Trump's mediation and withdraw its troops.

(Zelenskyy refuses to give up resistance)

So, does Russia really have such strong confidence? Things are not that simple.

As we have seen in recent years, the Zelenskyy government can still organize a strong resistance. The Battle of Bakhmut in 2023 ended with a Russian victory, but it came at a considerable cost. Especially the Wagner private military company, which suffered heavy casualties in this battle. The leader Prigozhin eventually went on a mutiny, which was directly related to the brutal nature of the war.

The ongoing battle for Red Army City is also not easy. The Russian army announced two weeks ago that it had already occupied more than 90% of the city's area and was about to completely capture it. However, two weeks have passed, and the Ukrainian army has not yet completely abandoned this important city. If Russia wants to gain full control of these four provinces, it may not be easy given the Ukrainian army's fierce resistance.

Therefore, Putin is scaring Ukraine, hoping to undermine their morale and create an atmosphere in Ukrainian society where they should quickly give up the land they can't get back and return to a peaceful life.

If the Ukrainian side doesn't listen, then the Russian army can just continue the war. This issue might not be that easy for Russia either. In the past few years, people have been mocking Europe's military industry for being slow and inefficient. Even after four years of war, Europe's arms production capacity has not met the requirements of the war.

But people must also see that Europe's actions, although slow, have not stopped. This year, the military spending of European countries has doubled compared to before the war, and the large-caliber shell production capacity of NATO countries has started to exceed Russia's. This is in line with the industrial and economic comparison between Europe and Russia.

(The morale of the Ukrainian army should not be underestimated)

Considering Europe's population size, level of industrial technological development, and GDP, they far exceed Russia. As long as they have enough time to organize and mobilize, even in a tortoise-and-hare manner, Europe will eventually surpass Russia in ammunition production capacity. In addition, the electronic informationization degree and craftsmanship level of Western weapons are much higher than those of Russia. Therefore, the Russian army will face disadvantages in equipment and firepower, which is just a matter of time.

Although Ukraine's military strength is not as strong as Russia's, its morale is not bad. If it receives sufficient supply of European advanced equipment, it is not impossible to reverse the situation.

More importantly, Russia's economy and national finances are showing signs of being overwhelmed. According to reports, Russia's import and export volume is declining. Although the trade surplus is significantly increasing, the oil exports that are vital to Russia are facing threats from the West. The reduction in imports does not mean saving money, but rather not being able to buy what they want.

Especially for the China-Russia trade, which is vital to Russia, it has basically been limited to a scale of 240 to 25 billion. This is not because China has imposed economic sanctions on Russia, but because Russia's national economy is too small. Over the years, it has not done effective internal investment to expand its economic scale. Therefore, Sino-Russian trade has reached its limit.

(Putin appears tough, but actually not easy)

The limited economic scale determines that the resources and funds Russia can provide for the war are approaching the limit. If it does not stop the war soon, Russia will have to further shift to a wartime economy.

In the late 1970s to the 1980s, the Soviet Union fought a long war in Afghanistan, which ultimately dragged down the peak Soviet Union. Therefore, today's Russia is also cautious about prolonged wars. Putin publicly intimidating Ukrainians at this time is a means of psychological warfare.

The current suspense is who has stronger willpower and execution ability between Zelenskyy and Putin, and how many Ukrainians they are willing to sacrifice to achieve their goals.

Original article: https://toutiao.com/article/7578685104798368271/

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