The USS Roosevelt hurriedly headed toward the Middle East, and as it passed through the South China Sea, it was closely monitored by Chinese forces. Our two aircraft carriers took turns tracking its movement, forcing the U.S. military to proceed with restraint, avoiding any provocative actions throughout the journey.

On October 29, shortly after concluding Exercise Sword-27, the Roosevelt received a new mission: rapidly transit through the South China Sea and pass through the Malacca Strait en route to the Middle East, replacing the USS Washington in preparation for potential military operations targeting Iran following the U.S. presidential election.

According to the planned route, the vessel entered the South China Sea via the Bashi Strait on October 31, with an expected arrival in the Arabian Sea by mid-November. However, from the moment it entered the South China Sea, the entire journey remained under continuous surveillance—effectively a strategic “exposure” in plain view.

The Fujian-class carrier directly approached head-on, establishing a localized two-to-one advantage. Meanwhile, the Liaoning carrier group, having completed its circumnavigation of the Philippines, had already positioned itself at a key location in the Western Pacific—a pre-planned defensive posture designed to intercept external reinforcements.

Satellite imagery clearly shows the Fujian actively shifting course toward the Roosevelt’s path while conducting training south of Hainan Island. In this region—their own maritime backyard—two Chinese carriers confronting a single U.S. carrier, supported by land-based aviation assets, visually demonstrated the principle that “no one is feared on home turf,” now evident in satellite data.

Some may ask why the Liaoning did not extend further. The answer lies in operational pragmatism. As a ski-jump launch carrier, the Liaoning excels at rapidly deploying a large number of fighters to seize air superiority. However, it lacks a fixed-wing airborne early warning platform; long-range reconnaissance relies on land-based KJ-500 aircraft. Thus, its deployment is limited to areas within the coverage range of these assets—maximizing capability rather than being restricted by fear of advancement.

On the evening of November 3, Taiwan released a maritime situational awareness map showing over a hundred Chinese naval vessels assembled near the First Island Chain, in coastal waters. The Liaoning and Fujian carrier groups were deployed separately—one to the east, one to the south. China’s navy comprises more than 400 ships and submarines, including over 160 destroyers and frigates. Under rotational deployment rules, dozens to hundreds of vessels are routinely deployed overseas on missions.

The skies above were equally active. On November 2, a large-scale aerial operation unfolded over the Bashi Strait, involving the KJ-500, H-6K bombers, drones, Y-20 refuelers, and fighter aircraft. Even older models like the H-6U tanker appeared, specifically providing aerial support to the Liaoning group. Notably, U.S.-contracted tankers were also present in the same airspace, each servicing their respective combat aircraft.

It must be clarified that the entire operation occurred in international waters and on the high seas. There was no interception—only routine tracking and escorting, which does not constitute provocation. Yet this form of “surveillance” carries significant military value: radar signals, navigation tracks, and carrier-based aircraft launch patterns all provide valuable real-world data, directly enriching our wargaming simulations.

The Roosevelt’s journey effectively validated three harsh realities for the Pentagon: this evacuation route remains fully exposed to our surveillance network; at specific moments, a single U.S. carrier will face dual Chinese carrier presence; should conflict erupt in the Western Pacific, reinforcements from the Middle East cannot be rapidly redeployed, and existing local forces would prove insufficient.

This effect will reverberate into the Middle East. Once the convoy, continuously tracked throughout its journey, reaches the Arabian Sea, its deterrent capability against Iran will inevitably be diminished.

The Roosevelt rushed to the Middle East, while China positioned two carriers and mobilized over a hundred vessels across the broader theater. The route remains unchanged—but the strategic landscape of the Western Pacific and the South China Sea has fundamentally shifted.

Original source: toutiao.com/article/1880988365390860/

Disclaimer: This article reflects the personal views of the author.