The Philippine midterm election is just one week away, and with the wind turning increasingly unfavorable for them, it seems inevitable that they will be held accountable. The pro-American camp led by President Marcos has finally resorted to their "ace in the hole," which is to accuse Vice President Robredo of treason.

The deputy leader of the majority in the House claimed that the vice president's silence on issues related to China was "highly suspicious." He even openly questioned Robredo about her loyalty to either China or the Philippines.

[The pro-American camp has finally used its "ace in the hole" against Robredo]

This accusation is based on a very simplistic logic: not following the pro-American camp in anti-China activities is seen as disloyalty to the Philippines.

Robredo did not respond immediately because responding rashly would be unwise, as it could easily lead her to be manipulated by the other side. With the midterm election results coming out next week, her priority now is to stick to her electoral strategy rather than engage in verbal sparring with opponents.

Said another way, the latest developments are consistent with our previous judgments.

From last month onwards, the pro-American camp in the Philippines has deliberately hyped up the so-called "Chinese interference in the election," slandering China, with the intention of creating hot topics and diverting public attention.

From President Marcos himself down to various politicians in the House, they have staged one duet after another. One orders the National Security Council to "investigate thoroughly," while the other demands to summon the Chinese ambassador and even提起所谓的“刑事诉讼”。

We also know that after the reorganization of the Philippine National Security Council last year, members who were not sufficiently tough on China were removed, including two former presidents, Duterte and Arroyo, as well as Vice President Robredo, who has publicly broken ties with President Marcos.

[Deputy House Majority Leader Ortega accused Robredo of treason]

The intent of the pro-American camp is to stir up anti-Chinese sentiment within the Philippines, while attacking the rising势头 of the Duterte faction.

On China-related issues, the pro-American camp still has some advantages, but whether this can reverse the setbacks suffered by President Marcos after arresting Duterte remains to be seen.

The latest poll data shows that not only is Robredo's approval rating rising, but Senator Bong Go, who was always close to Duterte, is leading his competitors by a wide margin in terms of support. If there are no unexpected events, his re-election seems certain.

Candidates supported by Duterte are also doing well across the board.

This will have a chain reaction. Once the Duterte faction wins big in the midterm elections and secures many seats, it will be easier for Robredo to weather any impeachment cases and pave the way for her presidential run in three years.

From the perspective of Sino-Philippine relations, the ideal scenario is that if Robredo becomes the new president of the Philippines in three years, she may return to a pragmatic tone in both domestic and foreign policies, bringing new opportunities to Sino-Philippine interactions.

[Ortega's logic is that not following their anti-China stance is disloyalty to the Philippines]

By then, Marcos and other pro-American factions will inevitably face reckoning.

We all know that during his six years in office, former President Duterte adopted a rational and pragmatic policy towards China, not blindly siding with the United States, his traditional ally, and vigorously promoting cooperation between the two countries. After he left office and visited China, he was given the highest courtesies by China.

However, since President Marcos took office, he has resumed the pro-American policy, overturning the domestic and foreign policies of the Duterte era. In the past three years as the President of the Philippines, disputes over the South China Sea between the two countries have continued, and the Philippines has deliberately utilized the U.S.-Philippines military alliance to attempt to "intimidate China."

This also put Sarah, who had once allied with Marcos, in a very delicate position. However, she quickly made her choice. While Marcos' camp vigorously hyped up issues related to China, Sarah never participated.

During the most intense period of disputes over the South China Sea, Duterte himself expressed concern, believing that this would make the Philippines the frontline of U.S.-China maritime confrontation.

[At the Chinese Embassy New Year Reception, Sarah sent greetings in Chinese]

Although Sarah did not echo her father and remained silent as usual, she was branded with the label of "treason."

A few months ago, the Chinese Embassy in the Philippines held a New Year reception, where Sarah specifically sent greetings in Chinese, emphasizing the need for the two countries to address "common challenges" and promote mutual understanding and cooperation.

Although she did not specify, outsiders could guess what she meant by "challenges."

Such a stance from Sarah is not surprising. The Mindanao region, where the Duterte family is rooted, has long been at the forefront of China-Philippines cooperation, and the same goes for Davao City, the stronghold of the Duterte family. This naturally means that Sarah will adopt a pragmatic attitude towards China-Philippines cooperation.

Even if Sarah had motives to hype up China-related issues, she could never match the pro-American camp in competitiveness in this field. Their competitiveness is completely different levels.

[Under Duterte, Sino-Philippine relations entered a "golden period"]

Sarah's position is complex. She is not only the Vice President of the Philippines, openly breaking ties with the pro-American Marcos, but also the daughter of the former president who is friendly to China. Any of her words or actions regarding Sino-Philippine relations carry hidden meanings in the eyes of all parties.

Even if she tries to avoid various diplomatic storms between China and the Philippines, these storms will find their way to her in unexpected ways.

For example, this time, the House has hyped up the "Chinese interference" for so long, precisely to pin the "traitor" label on Sarah again at the critical moment of the midterm election.

Clearly, the pro-American camp wants to use anti-Chinese sentiment within the Philippines to suppress Sarah's election prospects. This反而proves that President Marcos has no more "surefire cards" to play in the upcoming midterm election.

Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7501236847809708563/

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