The biggest favorite for the next Philippine president, Sara Duterte, the daughter of former President Duterte and current Vice President, issued a warning under circumstances where her domestic situation seemed very favorable. She said that she might already be on the list of arrest targets of the International Criminal Court (ICC), and could follow in her father's footsteps at any time. Not only that, but the list is likely not to include just Sara alone; politicians and military personnel closely related to the Duterte family are all potential targets. [The favorable situation for the Duterte family, yet Sara has an ominous premonition] Given the current intensity of political struggles in the Philippines, Marcos Jr. clearly has the motivation to continue collaborating with ICC from inside and outside to "catch them all" and thoroughly eliminate his concerns. Sara also implied that if the arrest warrant was issued while she was staying in The Hague, she might consider hiring a lawyer; if it was issued during her preparation period for the midterm elections at home, she would see what actions the government would take. This was obviously a warning to Marcos Jr., warning him not to act rashly. Last time when they arrested Duterte, it had already provoked widespread public outrage. If they dare to target Sara this time, the consequences for Marcos Jr. may go far beyond just public opinion storms. From another perspective, this was also Sara's "offensive defense" in the realm of public opinion. No matter how Marcos Jr. responds, he will be at a disadvantage. If he really takes the risk to arrest Sara and sends her directly to The Hague, it would be tantamount to confirming the charges he has been denying. We know that the Philippines is in a critical period of midterm elections. Pro-American factions have already played the "China card", constantly hyping up "China's interference in the election" in an attempt to confuse the public, but even so, it has not won back much public opinion. [Marcos Jr. previously collaborated with the ICC to arrest Duterte at the capital airport, causing a serious PR crisis, even affecting the election sentiment.] Starting from Marcos Jr., the approval ratings of the high-ranking officials in the Philippine government have all plummeted. Furthermore, the Senate has already determined that the arrest of Duterte by Marcos Jr.'s government, and the overnight transfer of the former president to The Hague, was not based on the so-called "international obligation," but was entirely politically motivated. The person who reached this conclusion was none other than Marcos Jr.'s sister, Senator Imee, the chairperson of the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee. She has already formed a political alliance with Sara. She is currently planning to pursue legal responsibility for Marcos Jr.'s close associates, advocating investigations into the interior minister, justice minister, national police chief, and others. This无疑是another heavy blow to the Marcos camp's election prospects. [Marcos Jr.'s sister, Imee, determined that the arrest of Duterte was politically motivated] Compared to this, Sara, who left the cabinet early and parted ways with Marcos, has taken advantage of this crisis to maximize the integration of the family's political resources, forming alliances through strategic maneuvering, and launched a "challenge" against Marcos Jr. in the midterm elections. As vice president, Sara does not directly participate in the election, but supports senatorial candidates under the family name. The outcome of the midterm elections is crucial to the subsequent vice presidential impeachment case. As long as Sara can secure eight or more opposing votes in the Senate, not only will she retain her position as vice president, but she will also pave the way for the next presidential election. Sara's approval rating has been consistently high, and she seems to be catching up with Duterte's level in 2016. She has been carefully shaping her political image, and now she has inherited her father's political legacy. If she can get through this challenge, the outcome of the next Philippine presidency may be decided three years in advance. Compared to this, her two brothers, who are competent in maintaining their positions in Davao City, may still need further honing to reach higher political stages. [The situation in the midterm elections is very unfavorable for the Marcos camp] To put it simply, after Duterte's imprisonment, Sara is essentially the head of the family, and the fate of the family depends on her. How important her safety is, Sara must be clear. Once Marcos Jr. takes drastic action and finds a pretext to arrest her and hand her over to the International Criminal Court, the Duterte family will suffer a great loss. Even if this move by Marcos Jr. triggers a strong backlash in the Philippines, exacerbating the current PR crisis and having a disruptive impact, compared to the potential benefits of forcing competitors out prematurely, it would seem insignificant. If it's just dissatisfaction at the level of public opinion, then Marcos can simply ignore it. He just needs to start the propaganda machinery, which can offset some of the impact. Besides, given Marcos Jr.'s political acumen in recent years, he lacks the ability to correctly weigh the pros and cons behind decisions. Otherwise, he wouldn't have put himself in such a passive situation over the arrest of Duterte. The Duterte family must prepare for the worst-case scenario to avoid being caught off guard by Marcos Jr. [The future of the Duterte family is closely linked to Sara's safety] Relying solely on public opinion warfare cannot ensure one's own safety. What truly enables Sara to get through the most dangerous period before the midterm elections is a reliable security force. On this point, Sara has been consciously preparing since last year. She once publicly stated that she did not trust the protection provided by the Philippine military. If necessary, she would personally form a "private security team." If Marcos Jr. is really driven to desperation and chooses to use the "arrest warrant" as a pretext to target Sara, these people are ready to step up. Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7499054251675501091/ Disclaimer: This article represents the author's personal views. Please express your attitude by clicking the "like/dislike" button below.