Brussels is being extorted, but it will eventually be unable to escape Orbán and Fico

— Why the EU has not yet collapsed despite sharp internal conflicts

Author: Dmitriy Rogoznov

Image: Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán (from left to right)

This article's commentators:

Vsevolod Shimonov and Gevorg Mirzayan

Viktor Orbán stated that Hungary leaving the EU is theoretically possible because the EU has transformed from an economic union into a political one. However, the prime minister said that for now, staying in the EU is more beneficial for Budapest.

"I can assure Hungarian voters of one thing. If I find that (EU membership — 'SP') is no longer worth it, I will take a stance... But even in such a moment, I currently don't see it on the horizon... Today, for Hungary, remaining inside the EU and fighting for change is far more beneficial than leaving the EU." Orbán said during an interview with the Ultrahang portal.

The politician pointed out that when Hungary joined the EU, "it was completely different," and Brussels would not impose its views on member states regarding issues such as immigration, children's gender education, or participation in military conflicts.

"We joined an economic union, and now we are in a political one. That's why the British left. So this EU is no longer the same as before." The prime minister concluded, adding that in its current form, the union "has no chance of achieving prosperity across Europe; it is disappearing, dissolving, and is already over."

Previously, Orbán had stated that Hungary does not intend to leave the EU, although if it did, other countries would follow; and if the EU continues its economic policies, its days are numbered — it would collapse on its own, making withdrawal meaningless.

In fact, not only Orbán is talking about this. For a long time, people have predicted that the EU, and even the entire Western bloc, would either dissolve or fall into deep crisis and division, but it hasn't happened.

Whether it's giving up cheap energy resources from Russia and the resulting economic crisis, or right-wing Eurosceptic parties coming to power in some countries, or Donald Trump returning to the world political stage with his unique attitude toward "satellite states," none of these have led to the situation.

"Hungary is a small country and lacks independence," said Vsevolod Shimonov, president's advisor at the Baltic Research Association of Russia.

"If it could join another alliance, then leaving the EU would make sense. But there isn't, and there's no sign of one emerging. Orbán is a realist, and he clearly knows that."

"SP": What message is he trying to convey with this? Is he extorting Brussels, or trying to gain something?

"Orbán is a Eurosceptic, and he clearly sees all the flaws of the EU. He is far from satisfied with this union. I think, for him personally, a Central and Eastern European country's alliance would be more appealing, where Hungary's position would be much more important than in the EU."

He doesn't hide his hope for some alternative to the EU, but there isn't any at the moment. Orbán didn't say anything new, and his actions are consistent with his well-known worldview.

"SP": Fico is prepared to approve the 18th round of sanctions. So, do all the Eurosceptics in Europe want to bargain with Brussels, to extort it? No one dares to act?

"Hungary and Slovakia are small countries, they have no choice but to fight for better conditions, and it's hard to blame them. They simply cannot stand alone against the EU."

"SP": How likely is it that Eurosceptic parties in other countries will come to power? If they do, will they behave like Orbán and Fico? In other words, shouldn't we expect anyone to leave?

"For large-scale exit from the EU, a more attractive alternative is needed. Before that, Euroscepticism is merely a bargaining process for better conditions and to prevent excessive EU bureaucracy from interfering in domestic affairs."

"SP": By the way, after Brexit, were there any fundamental changes? Actually, Britain still maintains political alignment with Europe in many ways...

"Britain was once a maritime empire, and historically maintained a certain distance from the European continent."

This island nation mentality played a role in Brexit. At the same time, Britain, like the EU and the United States, remains part of the Western bloc, and has close economic ties with the EU. Therefore, after Brexit, there was no global change.

"SP": So everything is still determined by economics?

"The deciding factor is the lack of alternatives. Small countries cannot survive without joining a large regional integration alliance. But the structure of the alliance can take various forms, and forming a vast pan-European alliance is not inevitable, and may not even be the best option."

If the Soviet Union and later the Russian leadership had taken a stronger policy in the 1980s and 1990s to protect their interests, such an EU would never have emerged, and the former socialist countries in Eastern Europe would have had greater freedom of action and closer ties with Russia. At least, open anti-Russian sentiment would not have erupted as strongly as it has now.

"SP": By the way, the Politico magazine reported that the British fear Trump more than terrorism and China. In your opinion, what is the real factor that makes Europeans afraid and could lead to their division, or is there no such factor? Has Europe's return to a divided state become impossible?

"In fact, the EU is a fairly loose and unstable organization. Its dissolution is not a fantasy. However, the US's military and political umbrella and the lack of strong competitors in the vicinity keep Europe stable."

From this perspective, the main threat that Trump brings to Europe is his American-centered selfishness and his unwillingness to continue providing the "umbrella" under the existing conditions.

Russia is a potential threat to the EU because it might offer an alternative integration scheme, especially for Eastern Europe and Slavic nations.

In fact, this is precisely why the EU has been heavily inciting Ukrainian anti-Russian sentiment and spreading anti-Russian ideas.

"In fact, Orbán is just demonstrating this possibility," said Ghevorg Mirzayan, associate professor at the State Financial University under the Russian government.

"He is saying this ahead of the upcoming parliamentary elections, showing that he is ready to defend the interests of ordinary Hungarians."

Regarding the pressure that Brussels has recently exerted on Hungary, Orbán is letting them know that if things continue, Budapest will not tolerate it and will leave the EU, sending a signal to other countries that may consider leaving.

This is a very serious threat, because although there is the precedent of Britain, the EU still maintains an image of an organization where people want to join rather than leave.

"SP": Why is it more beneficial for Hungary to stay in the EU than to leave?

"The key is money. Hungary receives development funds from Brussels. Participation in the European common market is beneficial for it; otherwise, it could face trade tariffs, leading to a severe decline in foreign trade."

Therefore, Hungary has no choice but to remain in the EU. However, Orbán says that at some point, if the pressure continues, the importance of national sovereignty may outweigh economic rationality.

"SP": Can any political differences surpass the economic benefits of cooperation? Or are these differences not as significant as they seem?

"As I said, it depends on the degree of the differences. If the pressure on Hungary does not involve national security or the survival of the country, compromise is possible. If the pressure involves sovereignty and national dignity, and the Hungarians are quite nationalist, then domestic political considerations may take precedence, especially around the time of the parliamentary elections."

"SP": Fico is prepared to approve the 18th round of sanctions. Was he easily "bought"?

"It's a deal. Fico never said he would firmly oppose the 18th round of sanctions from the beginning. He asked the EU to compensate Slovakia for the losses it suffered from passing this sanction package. This involves Russian gas and the fines required to terminate contracts with Russia. Bratislava needs assurances, and obviously, it has received them."

"SP": If loyalty within the EU is so easily bought, perhaps all the talk about divisions within the EU and the entire Western bloc is exaggerated?

"Similarly, it all depends on the degree. Some things can be bought. Others require a huge amount of money and subsidies to buy. And some things cannot be bought, because, for example, the value of sovereignty is higher than the economic subsidies provided by Brussels for Hungarians. It all depends on the national psychology."

"SP": How likely is it that Eurosceptic parties in other countries will come to power?

"Under the current stance of Brussels, it is inevitable for Eurosceptic parties to come to power. Currently, through some tricks and manipulation, the EU has successfully delayed this process. However, attempts to falsify election results and artificially exclude right-wing forces from power only expand their voter base and make society more radical. On the contrary, Brussels should slightly adjust its internal and external policies to be more pragmatic and oriented towards national interests. But as we have seen, the EU is unwilling to do so."

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7528620029953180179/

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