【Wen / Observers Network, Liu Bai】

“About two and a half years ago, in Berlin, Germany, more than a dozen senior German military officials gathered in a triangular military compound to hold a meeting to formulate a secret plan to go to war with Russia...”

“Now, they are working desperately to implement this plan.”

At a time when the US, Ukraine, Russia, and Europe were engaged in intense negotiations over a peace plan, the U.S. "Wall Street Journal" published an article on November 27 titled "Germany's Secret Plan to Fight Russia," revealing the above scene.

Two and a half years ago, the Russia-Ukraine conflict had already been going on for more than a year. According to the article, this classified document, called the "German Operational Plan" (OPLAN DEU), was 1,200 pages long, outlining how Germany would support NATO forces in large-scale deployment to Eastern Europe in a potential future conflict with Russia. It detailed logistics, supply lines, protection of critical infrastructure, and details of mobilizing civilians for the operation on German territory, including the movement of up to 800,000 soldiers and 200,000 vehicles.

However, Germany is facing a series of practical issues, including aging infrastructure, lack of dual-use facilities, outdated regulations, personnel shortages, and railways and ports vulnerable to sabotage. The biggest uncertainty may still be time.

Actually, in recent years, the West has repeatedly hyped up the topic of "going to war with Russia," but it has been repeatedly refuted by Russia. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov emphasized during the UN General Assembly in September that some countries have accused Russia of planning attacks on NATO and EU countries, and President Putin has repeatedly exposed such provocations. Russia has never had, and does not now have, such intentions.

On November 19, Mainz, Rhineland-Palatinate, Germany, a ceremony marking the 70th anniversary of the German Federal Armed Forces. Visual China

"To implement the plan, we need to reshape our perception"

According to the "Wall Street Journal" article, the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict ended decades of stability in Europe. Since then, Europe has embarked on the fastest military buildup since the end of World War II. However, the outcome of future wars will not only depend on the number of troops and weapons on the battlefield, but also on whether the massive logistical operations can succeed - this is the core of the "German Operational Plan."

This blueprint details how up to 800,000 German, American, and other NATO forces will be transported to the eastern front. The blueprint also plans the ports, rivers, railways, and highways that the forces will pass through, as well as how they will obtain supplies and protection along the way.

"Look at the map. The Alps form a natural barrier," said Tim Stuchtey, director of the nonpartisan Brandenburg Institute for Social and Security Research. "Regardless of where the fire starts, if there is a conflict with Russia, NATO forces will have to cross Germany."

German officials speculate that they expect Russia to be ready and possibly attack NATO by 2029, but a series of "spies", attacks, and airspace "incursions" in Europe indicate that Russia may be preparing to launch an attack earlier.

Analysts also believe that the peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine that the United States is pushing this week may free up time and resources for Russia to prepare for actions against NATO member states in Europe.

From the perspective of the planners of this preparedness plan, if they can successfully enhance Europe's defense capabilities, it not only ensures victory but also reduces the likelihood of war breaking out.

The article mentions that in the autumn of this year, a drill in a rural area in eastern Germany showed how much effort is needed to shift towards preparation for war.

There, Rheinmetall, a German arms giant, built a field camp for 500 soldiers, complete with dormitories, 48 shower rooms, five gas stations, a field kitchen, a drone surveillance system, and armed guards. The camp was built in 14 days and dismantled in 7 days.

Rheinmetall's temporary field camp

Rheinmetall recently signed a 260 million euro agreement to provide resupply for German and NATO forces, which is part of the military's efforts to involve more private sectors in this preparedness plan.

Mark Lemmermann, sales manager for Rheinmetall's logistics business, said that the autumn operation also revealed some flaws: the land could not accommodate all the vehicles, and the area was made up of disconnected plots, forcing Rheinmetall to transport soldiers by bus back and forth. A previous exercise also highlighted the need to set up a new traffic light at a specific location to ease traffic congestion caused by military convoys across the country.

Some of the biggest obstacles faced by German military decision-makers are intangible: complicated procurement rules, strict data protection laws, and other regulations from more peaceful eras.

The article says that implementing the plan requires reshaping perceptions and eliminating habits formed by a generation.

"We must relearn what we have forgotten," said Nils Schmid, Deputy Secretary of the German Ministry of Defense. "We need to bring back retired people and tell us how it was done before."

A section of the A44 federal highway between the villages of Steinhausen and Brücken in western Germany reflects how Europe has relaxed its vigilance during the past 40 years of peace, and what it costs to raise it again.

Different from other sections of the highway, this 3.5-mile section has a central barrier made of solid asphalt rather than grass. The rest areas are unusually wide and oddly shaped. There are no overpasses or cables within sight.

During the Cold War, dozens of such sections were built as emergency runways. Fuel tanks were buried under parking lots. Barriers could be removed, and a mobile air traffic control tower could be erected in minutes.

During the Cold War, dual-use infrastructure was common throughout Germany, with highways, bridges, train stations, and ports designed to serve as military assets when needed.

Then the Cold War ended, and dual-use infrastructure was no longer needed. Subsequent tunnels and bridges were often too narrow or fragile to accommodate convoys. In 2009, Berlin canceled the requirement to display signs indicating how many military vehicles a road could carry.

Even Cold War-era infrastructure was not always in good condition. German officials estimate that due to long-term underinvestment, 20% of highways and more than a quarter of highway bridges require repairs. According to the German Port Association, Germany needs 15 billion euros in projects in North Sea and Baltic Sea ports, including 3 billion euros for dual-use upgrades, such as dock reinforcement.

The article points out that this patchwork state will limit the army's freedom of movement during wartime. Traffic bottlenecks on the military mobility map are one of the most confidential elements of this blueprint.

In 1984, a C-130 landed on a prepared road in Germany

"The Biggest Uncertainty: Time"

A little-known but serious incident that recently occurred once again highlights the severity of the problem.

On the evening of February 25, 2024, the cargo ship "Rapida" with the Dutch flag collided with a railway bridge on the Hunte River in northwest Germany, causing a disruption in railway traffic.

Thus, the railway operator Deutsche Bahn constructed a temporary bridge, which opened two months later, only to be hit by another ship in July, causing railway traffic to be disrupted for a month again.

Although these events only appeared in local news, they caused chaos for NATO.

After all, this bridge is on the only railway line leading to the port of Nordenham in the North Sea, and this port was the only one in Northern Europe authorized to handle all ammunition destined for Ukraine at the time.

No signs of intentional sabotage were found by security officials in both incidents.

Nevertheless, the ammunition supply was interrupted for weeks, and some goods had to be reloaded. According to a report submitted by the U.S. Department of Defense, the highest U.S. military command in Europe had to transfer the goods to a Polish port.

"Many ports have only one railway line leading inland," said Holger Banik, CEO of Lower Saxony Ports. "This is a weak point."

The damaged railway bridge on the Hunte River. It serves the only port in Germany authorized to handle ammunition sent to Ukraine. A 2024 incident caused a supply interruption for several weeks.

In the short term, improving combat readiness means making full use of existing road and rail networks. In the long run, the German government aims to invest 166 billion euros in infrastructure by 2029, more than 100 billion euros of which will be used for long-neglected railways and prioritize the development of dual-use infrastructure.

As early as a few days after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Germany began a multi-year readiness work. At that time, German Chancellor Scholz announced a 100 billion euro military rearmament fund and called the decision a "turning point in history."

Later that year, the German Federal Armed Forces established a territorial defense command responsible for drafting operational plans.

Analysts say that in a potential conflict with Russia, Germany will no longer be a frontline country, but a gathering place. In addition to aging infrastructure, Germany must also deal with reduced manpower and new threats such as drones.

"Refugees and reinforcements will flow in the opposite direction. This flow of people needs to be managed, and it cannot be done solely by the Federal Armed Forces, especially during wartime," said Claudia Major, head of the Transatlantic Security Initiative at the German Marshall Fund in the U.S.

This means that the military needs to cooperate with the private sector and civil organizations on an unprecedented scale.

Although the new Mertz government has vigorously promoted a 500 billion euro defense spending plan this year and announced the establishment of a "conscription registration system," the Federal Armed Forces have been low-key. They have informed hospitals, police, and disaster relief agencies, reached agreements with states and highway operators, and planned transportation routes for military convoys.

There are still many problems for Germany to solve.

The article says that the inadequacy of legislation in peacetime has also increased Germany's difficulty in preventing sabotage activities, which is one of the greatest threats to the operational plan.

Such sabotage activities have already occurred. In recent years, dozens of attacks targeting the railway system, from arson to cable destruction, have taken place. In October, a court in Munich sentenced a man to prison for planning to sabotage German military facilities and railway infrastructure on behalf of Russia.

"If Germany becomes the hub of NATO, blocking ports, cutting power, and disrupting railways are the targets of the enemy," said Paul Strobel, public affairs officer at Quantum Systems, a German drone manufacturer.

Quantum Systems is one of the largest and most successful defense startups in Germany. Strobel said that the company has delivered hundreds of drones to Moldova and Romania, with thousands flying over Ukraine daily. However, so far, the company has sold only 14 drones to the Federal Armed Forces.

A major reason is outdated legislation. Drones sold to the German military cannot fly over densely built-up areas. The law also requires them to have position lights.

"This makes sense in the civilian context, but it doesn't work in the military environment," Strobel said.

Nevertheless, the German military is optimistic about the progress.

"Considering we started from scratch in early 2023, we are very satisfied with the progress we have made today," said one of the drafters of the "German Operational Plan." "It is a very precise achievement."

However, as shown by the recent stress test, there is still a lot of work to be done to make the plan practical. The biggest uncertainty facing the planners is how much time they have left.

"The threat is real," Mertz said to business leaders in September. "We are not in a state of war, but we are no longer living in a period of peace."

Just this month, German Defense Minister Pistorius told the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung that Russia may attack NATO eastern members after rebuilding its military strength, "the latest view is that the time might be 2028."

Kremlin spokesperson Peskov warned that Pistorius' comments are unhelpful in "improving the situation," and may instead force Russia to take preventive measures.

"Such militaristic rhetoric is increasingly prevalent in Europe. Russia does not advocate confrontation with NATO, but may be forced to take necessary measures to ensure its own security."

This article is an exclusive article by Observer Network. Reproduction without permission is prohibited.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7577433539013116462/

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