Russia's MS-21 will surpass Boeing.

Author: Olga Samofalova

As the most in-demand passenger aircraft model globally, the MS-21 has become a symbol of Russia's resistance to sanctions. The Russian State Corporation Rostec stated that not only has the project "survived," but it is also preparing to "surpass Boeing." Despite unprecedented pressure, Russia has successfully replaced about 80 Western systems and components, with the first MS-21 aircraft scheduled for delivery to airlines in 2026. This is something few in the West anticipated.

"The MS-21 has become a symbol of resistance to sanctions. Although foreign partners who initially participated in its development have withdrawn, the project is not only 'alive' but is also preparing to surpass Boeing," said Oleg Yevtushenko, Executive Director of Rostec.

The MS-21 is the most demanded medium-haul passenger aircraft worldwide. Its maiden flight took place on May 28, 2017, using imported components and systems at first. However, due to sanctions, adjustments had to be made, though the project was never frozen. According to Rostec, the test prototype of the MS-21, completed with local substitutes for imports, has begun factory debugging tests in spring 2025.

According to the import substitution plan, around 80 systems and components, including the composite wing and engines, have been replaced.

Yevtushenko stated that the certification tests for the MS-21 are set to begin in Zhukovsky, Moscow Oblast. He added that the first aircraft are planned to be delivered to airlines starting in 2026.

When the decision to develop the MS-21 was made over a decade ago, no one could have imagined that Russia's aviation industry would face such severe sanctions. At that time, cooperation with Western (American, European, etc.) aviation component manufacturers was standard practice.

"Aircraft manufacturing is an extremely complex technological process. Building an airplane requires thousands of components; establishing a complete production chain in one country is very difficult. Only a few companies worldwide produce civilian passenger aircraft, and end-to-end autonomous manufacturing in aviation is extremely rare, even during the Soviet era. The myth that the Soviet Union manufactured airplanes entirely independently is a misunderstanding and a myth. In reality, many components and equipment were produced by the republics, and countries like Poland and Czechoslovakia were involved in collaborations," said Fedor Borisov, chief expert at the Institute of Transport Economics and Transport Policy of the New Economic School.

In addition, after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the industrial system collapsed, and even paying employees became challenging, let alone producing aircraft. The decline of the national economy led to a sharp reduction in demand for air travel among the population, and the connections with dispersed production bases in other countries and former republics were cut off. The "lost decade" dealt a heavy blow to Russia's aviation industry, with some technical capabilities lost along with the outstanding talents and designers of the time. Western aviation manufacturers were far ahead, forcing Russia to catch up. Collaborating with them made the journey easier, faster, and cheaper.

"We have always produced our own avionics, we are good at making airplanes, we have excellent technical accumulation, and we can independently develop engines. However, to produce competitive products, we must procure the best global solutions available. Therefore, we never produced or procured parts made by the republics; instead, we purchased them from abroad. At that time, there was little motivation to produce these parts domestically, as it required significant investment and time. But when we found ourselves in confrontation with the West, most Western products became unobtainable. Thus, we faced an unprecedented challenge since World War II – producing an aircraft that maximizes import substitution," Borisov said.

As for Boeing and Airbus, Russia currently cannot compete with them in the international market. This may only be possible after 2030.

"The primary task of Russia's aviation industry is to meet the domestic market's demand with domestic technology. Western enterprises have refused to supply passenger aircraft to Russia. Completing this task will take five to seven years. During this period, the inevitable 'growing pains' in the development of new products, improvements in domestic production, and potential cooperation with friendly or neutral countries must be addressed. Users typically discover all defects during use and then make improvements," Borisov said.

After the domestic market is saturated with MS-21 aircraft, Russia may export to friendly countries. Russia currently owns more than 600 Boeing and Airbus aircraft that need to be replaced with domestic planes.

Time will tell what will happen to Boeing in ten years. However, Boeing's situation has been dire in recent years. Due to accidents caused by its new models and allegations of production violations, the company is facing severe financial problems. Former Boeing employee Sam Mohawk revealed that the factory was "chaotic, with severe shortages of parts due to supplier issues."

Boeing's aircraft sales have plummeted sharply in the past two years. Before 2023, the two aviation giants were neck-and-neck, but in 2023, Boeing sold 207 fewer aircraft than Airbus. In 2024, Americans performed worse, with Boeing trailing Airbus by 418 aircraft, an unprecedented gap in the history of aviation giants. Americans delivered only 348 commercial passenger aircraft to airlines, which was the worst performance since 2005 (excluding the pandemic period). Meanwhile, Airbus sold 766 aircraft, setting a record since 2019.

"I believe that Boeing and Airbus's current 'biggest concern' is not the MS-21 but the relevant national aviation industries. Like us, they are now focusing on their domestic markets to ensure the supply of domestic passenger aircraft," Borisov said.

Although direct sanctions against the MS-21 indicate that the U.S. fears Russia's progress in aviation manufacturing, such as breakthroughs in composite wings and other technologies.

Russia indeed leads in certain areas, providing a promising prospect for exporting components and engines to the relevant country in the future.

"In the engine sector, Russia is more advanced than the relevant country because the latter does not produce engines for its aircraft but purchases them from the West. At the same time, the relevant country is rapidly advancing in many aspects of aviation, although we do not fully understand the extent of their progress due to information isolation. It should be noted that the C919 aircraft of the relevant country is produced under international cooperation, meaning that the model extensively uses foreign components. The pressure of import substitution for the relevant country is not as urgent as it is for Russia," Borisov said. However, considering the escalating trade war between the U.S. and the relevant country, the relevant country undoubtedly excludes the possibility that the West might impose economic blockades on it in multiple fields, including aviation.

Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7511647918026211852/

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