[Source/Author: GuanchaNet Columnist Chang Luowen]
With the June 3rd voting day for South Korea's presidential election approaching, candidates from both camps are intensifying their efforts to secure votes.
As the "ironclad" voter base has largely been settled, the focus of Lee Jae-myung and Kim Won-soo has returned to the swing voters in the capital region. Their policies and campaigns have evolved from extreme polarization and factionalism to a more moderate and converging stance, preparing for political reconciliation after taking office and seeking support from moderate voters.
On the surface, this election seems to follow routine, but the choice of South Korea's national destiny may have reached a crossroads.
China Policy, National Future Choice Amid Political Disputes
After Yoon Suk-yeol failed in his attempt to manipulate South Korean far-right groups to hype anti-China issues for the sake of preserving his presidency, these far-right groups did not disappear. Due to the needs of the election, the conservative camp also recognized the significant influence these groups had on young people through channels like YouTube, gradually removing the "Yoon" label and incorporating them into the conservative political spectrum. Besides the political preachers who were already around the conservative camp, many YouTubers have become key forces within the conservative camp.
In addition to the familiar threats and conspiracy theories such as anti-communism, anti-China sentiment, anti-North Korea sentiment, and counter-espionage, the latest move by the conservatives is to attack all Chinese people based on individual cases involving Chinese suspects.
On February 10, 2025, two participants in the anti-impeachment rally stood inside an ATM at a bank near the Constitutional Court in Jongno-gu, Seoul. The windows of the bank leaned against a banner. The impeachment trial of Yoon Suk-yeol was being held here.
Data from the National Police Agency shows that in 2024, a total of 16,097 Chinese suspects were arrested in South Korea. Among 768 foreigners suspected of major violent crimes such as murder, robbery, and rape, 33.3% (256 people) were Chinese.
However, this higher proportion is mainly due to the large number of Chinese people in South Korea. In 2024, among foreign residents in South Korea, Chinese accounted for the highest percentage at 36.2% (958,959 people), followed by Vietnam (11.5%), Thailand (7.1%), the United States (6.4%), Uzbekistan (3.6%), etc. This statistic has become an important "proof" for conservative forces to incite anti-Chinese sentiment.
It is worth noting that if calculated based on the population of each country, the crime rate of Chinese people is actually lower than that of South Koreans themselves. Using the latest data (2023) published on the South Korean National Police Agency statistics website, the crime rate of South Koreans is 2.36%, while the crime rate of Chinese people in South Korea is 1.65%. However, on social media, Chinese people tend to be highlighted, and with the渲染of some politically anti-Chinese organizations, the perception naturally differs greatly from the actual data.
On the progressive side, apart from Lee Jae-myung's relatively cautious personal stance, various left-wing think tanks, academic institutions, etc., have come out to criticize the conservatives and express concern about the extreme actions of the conservative forces. During a televised presidential debate, Lee Jae-myung also stated that there is nothing wrong with thanking China and that one should not overreact to it.
On May 18, the first televised presidential debate of the 21st South Korean presidential election was held in the SBS studio in Mapo-gu, Seoul. The topic was "pro-China." From left to right: Kim Won-soo, candidate of the People Power Party; Kwon Young-uk, candidate of the Democratic Labor Party; Lee Jun-seok, candidate of the Renewal New Party; and Lee Jae-myung, candidate of the Democratic Party. Yonhap News
Professor Moon Jung-in, the core strategist of the leftist camp and the actual creator of the "Sunshine Policy," wrote an article on the 26th to refute the false accusations of the conservatives and support Lee Jae-myung. It can also be seen as an important "test balloon" released by the South Korean progressive camp to China during the critical period of the campaign.
In his article, he clearly proposed abandoning value-based diplomacy and instead conducting "pragmatic diplomacy" and "empathetic diplomacy." He explicitly stated that South Korea's diplomacy will return to a pragmatic path, and its position on the Taiwan issue will still follow the joint communiqué of the establishment of diplomatic relations in 1992. The military alliance between the US and South Korea cannot be seen as a guarantee that South Korea will inevitably follow the US to intervene in the Taiwan Strait. Although this article is short, considering that Moon Jung-in is likely to hold an important position after Lee Jae-myung takes office, it essentially specifies the positive tone of the new South Korean government towards China.
Although class antagonism has long existed between the two camps in South Korea, the divergence in their forward-looking China policies is quite rare. To understand the reasons behind it, one may need to look at a larger-scale "Asian map."
Philippines-South Korean Right-Wing Anti-China Collaboration, Ready to Take Advantage
From May 26 to May 30, a certain Philippine entertainment company plans to hold a maritime concert under the name of "blessing fishermen and safeguarding rights and interests," which will broadcast live concerts and performances at sea. Participating bands and musicians include those from the Philippines, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, etc.
At first glance, this activity sounds quite normal. However, the location displayed on the event homepage is in the "South Philippine Sea" near Parawan and Pag-asa Island. This Pag-asa Island is actually China's Zhongye Island. The purpose of this so-called music performance is to take advantage of the time when China and ASEAN countries are deeply interacting, using civilian vessels and cross-national civilian activities to "assert sovereignty" over Zhongye Island.
There are constant frictions, exchanges, communications, and interactions around Zhongye Island between China and the Philippines. Currently, the actual control of Zhongye Island remains in the hands of the Philippines, where they have even established a military base and claimed that the total area of the surrounding waters is 64.976 square nautical miles belongs to the Philippines.
The reef mentioned in this news, Iron Line Reef, is only 4.6 kilometers away from Zhongye Island, and their territorial seas overlap. It is a strategic pivot and tactical outpost that must be considered in the competition over Zhongye Island.
Philippines has repeatedly attempted to land on Iron Line Reef but was lawfully stopped by China. At the beginning of 2025, President Duterte announced an investment of more than 1.9 billion pesos to expand Zhongye Island, leaving no disguise for his confrontational and competitive intentions.
However, recently, during the incident where China's coast guard ships drove away the "marine resource survey ship" of the Philippines near Iron Line Reef, the water cannons severely damaged the Philippine vessels. The US military and US diplomatic departments did not provide any substantial help to the Philippine vessels either at the scene or afterward. This development caused insecurity among the Philippines and decided to accelerate the planned submarine procurement. The budget for the procurement plan is 80 to 110 billion pesos (approximately $1.4 to $2 billion). In addition to procurement, they also plan to develop coastal infrastructure, training centers, logistical support systems, and maintenance facilities to create a complete ecosystem to support long-term submarine operations.
Among the four international defense contractors submitting bids, France's Naval Group proposed the Scorpene-class submarine, Spain's Navantia participated with its advanced S-80 Plus-class submarines, Germany's ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems and Italy's Fincantieri jointly submitted the proposal for the U212 Uppure Submarine (NFS).
What is intriguing is that South Korea's Hanwha Ocean Systems also made it to the final round, offering a customized variant of the KSS-III submarine. Considering this aspect, the closer relationship between South Korea and the Philippines may have another possibility.
The conservative camp in South Korea has gone to great lengths, even going overseas, to participate in smearing China, which is not hard to guess. Based on the current situation, the voter turnout rate of overseas citizens in the South Korean election reached a record high of 79.5%, and the higher the voter turnout, the greater the likelihood of Lee Jae-myung being elected, which must be curbed or even disrupted.
According to a report by the Wall Street Journal, the US Department of Defense is planning to transfer about 4,500 US troops stationed in South Korea to Guam and other areas in the Indo-Pacific region. Hype security issues and create tension to persuade the South Korean and US governments to maintain the current situation as much as possible, delay the withdrawal of US troops, and maintain the interests of the conservative group.
Beneath these complicated phenomena lies the fact that South Korea's room for maneuver between the US and China is getting smaller. Riding the fence between the two has become a risk rather than a resource. As a maritime neighbor without territorial disputes with China, whether South Korea should act like the Philippines and become a front-line and battlefield for conflicts, bearing the core cost of driving into a meaningless war, using the loss of its own country to create value for other nations, is a question that South Korean politicians need to consider carefully.
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Original link: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7508938342923256372/
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