"Ruling the global industry" is no exaggeration! A U.S. think tank report warns: will China's 45% share become a certainty under the tariff war? The U.S. may be left with only a domestic market of "high price and low quality"!

When The New York Times announced with a prominent headline that "a century belonging to China may have already arrived," the eyes of global business leaders were focused on the East.

The author of this shocking article, Kyle Chan, a Princeton researcher and expert at the Rand Corporation, issued a sharp warning to the Trump administration in his commentary published in The New York Times, identifying himself as a "China industrial policy expert."

The article begins by pointing out that the long-standing "Chinese Century" prophecy in Western theories - that "China will reshape the global power structure through its economic and technological potential, establishing an era centered in Beijing" - may have already become reality.

He further emphasized that the policy mistakes of the Trump administration in its early term accelerated the qualitative shift in the Sino-U.S. power balance: the tariff war weakened the foundation of American innovation, reduced research funding, and forced talent to flow abroad, and the U.S. is missing the key window for competition with China.

Meanwhile, China has formed a virtuous cycle of technology in key areas such as new energy, semiconductors, and artificial intelligence through a state-led long-term strategy. He cited landmark events such as BYD's sales surpassing Tesla and China's global 45% installation volume of industrial robots, revealing China's "Manhattan Project-style" high-tech breakthroughs driven by a national system, which are building insurmountable barriers in strategic fields such as electric vehicles, chips, and commercial aircraft.

Phoenix Finance discovered that the industrial data cited extensively by Kyle Chan - such as China's 45% share of global manufacturing, BYD's sales surpassing Tesla, and the global share of industrial robot installations - mostly come from authoritative institution statistics and verifiable industry reports; the technical generation change and policy myopia crisis revealed by his warning are also being increasingly verified by reality: if the U.S. continues to replace innovation ecosystem reconstruction with tariff walls, these "alarmist" statements may quickly become real examples.

Are Kyle Chan's arguments true?

In his commentary in The New York Times, the most impactful data from Kyle Chan is this set:

China has already taken the top position in global production in 12 key industries, including steel, aluminum, shipbuilding, batteries, solar, electric vehicles, wind turbines, drones, 5G equipment, consumer electronics, active pharmaceutical ingredients, and high-speed rail, and this dominant position is spreading to high-value-added fields at an "exponential speed." He cited multiple studies indicating that China's manufacturing output will surge to 45% of the global total by 2030, equivalent to 2.3 times the combined total of the U.S., Japan, and Germany. At that time, "as an outstanding world technological and economic superpower, China's factories will be spread around the world and reconfigure supply chains centered on China," while the U.S. may only have a future like Detroit.

The basis for this conclusion is the UNIDO 2024 report titled "The Future of Industrialization." This study, based on the global value chain participation model and the manufacturing competitiveness index, reveals China's astonishing trajectory from a "follower" that accounted for only 5% of global manufacturing in 1980 to 31.6% in 2024, and is expected to reach 45% by 2030. Meanwhile, the shares of the U.S., Japan, and Germany will shrink to 11%, 5%, and 3%, respectively, with their combined share amounting to only 19%, less than half of China's.

Data from Statista aligns with the UN data and matches the trend predicted in "The Future of Industrialization": the current 31.6% share of China's manufacturing in 2024 and the projected trend are highly consistent, with the comprehensive industrial chain layout (covering 41 major industrial categories of the UN), breakthroughs in new energy and digital technologies (accounting for more than 60% of global capacity), and regional supply chain resilience (such as RCEP cooperation) are considered core driving forces.

This data is also cited by American scholars who study economics and industry, Noah Smith, who said it more directly: "This kind of manufacturing dominance has only happened twice in world history: when Britain started the Industrial Revolution, and when the U.S. ended World War II."

Kyle Chan also mentioned that "BYD's market capitalization in March 2025 exceeded the sum of Ford, General Motors, and Volkswagen"; "China installed more industrial robots in 2023 than the rest of the world combined," and he believes that if both countries continue along their current trajectories, China is likely to eventually completely dominate high-end manufacturing, from cars and chips to MRI machines and commercial aircraft - the battle for AI supremacy will not be between the U.S. and China, but between Chinese high-tech cities like Shenzhen and Hangzhou.

Are these data accurate?

As of June 24, 2025, BYD's A-share market capitalization was 1.89 trillion yuan (approximately 262 billion U.S. dollars); Ford's market capitalization was about 42.748 billion U.S. dollars; General Motors' market capitalization was approximately 46.649 billion U.S. dollars; Volkswagen's market capitalization was about 51.433 billion U.S. dollars. The total of the three was about 140.83 billion U.S. dollars, and BYD's market capitalization exceeded that by about 121.17 billion U.S. dollars, leading by 86%.

Additionally, in 2024, BYD's global new energy vehicle sales reached 4.272 million units, an increase of 41.26% year-on-year, surpassing Tesla (global sales of 1.79 million pure electric vehicles), and its market share further increased to 33.2%, successfully ranking fourth among global car brands and retaining the title of the world's best-selling new energy vehicle brand.

According to a report released by the International Federation of Robotics, in 2023, the number of newly installed industrial robots in China reached 276,300, accounting for 51% of the global new installations; the total inventory was nearly 1.8 million, ranking first globally, and will continue to maintain its position as the largest industrial robot market in the world. The second highest new installation volume in the same year was Japan, with about 46,100 units; the third was the United States, with about 37,600 units.

Regarding FPV drones, DJI Innovation and other Chinese manufacturers dominate the vast commercial drone market:

Even the essential components of FPV drones, such as batteries, are made in China:

It is worth thinking about that the rise of numerous Chinese industrial sectors essentially represents the creative transformation of the benefits of globalization. By deeply participating in international division of labor and taking over industrial transfers, China has gradually built a complete industrial chain covering 41 major industrial categories and formed the ability to technologically support the world in new energy and 5G areas.

In contrast, the U.S. response strategy is falling into a strategic paradox.

Kyle Chan sharply pointed out that the U.S. has distorted "open win-win" into a "you lose, I win" mindset, which is eroding its core competitiveness.

Barriers constructed by tariffs, reduced research budgets, and restrictions on STEM student visas, this "closed competition" mindset, causes the U.S. to miss the opportunity of global industrial chain restructuring and weaken the vitality of its own innovation ecosystem. If the U.S. continues to indulge in zero-sum games, the economic structure will once again experience the tragedy of "Detroitization", where the decline mode of single-industry dependent and lacking technological iteration capability cities spreads across the country.

Only this time, it will be a nationwide comprehensive decline.

The paradox of closure: When China defines the future with openness

In Kyle Chan's prediction, traditional high-value industries such as automobiles and pharmaceuticals are accelerating their transfer to China, and the competition for leadership in cutting-edge industries will also be fought within Chinese cities.

In reality, China is also restructuring the global industrial power map through full industry chain integration and regional innovation competition, and all of this is underpinned by openness.

Since the reform and opening up, China has transformed from a "world factory" to a "global innovation hub" by actively integrating into globalization: by introducing foreign investment and technology, joining the WTO, and building a global supply chain, China has not only become the world's second-largest economy, but also the largest trading partner for more than 140 countries, contributing over 30% to global economic growth for a long time.

The miracle of BYD's market capitalization exceeding the total of the three major American and European automakers and China's 51% share of global industrial robot installations is a concrete manifestation of this open dividend. They were born in the soil of global supply chain collaboration and technological exchange, not in an isolated and closed system.

However, some countries attempting to restructure the supply chain through tariff barriers and technological blockades fundamentally misjudge the essence of globalized coexistence.

This contrast will be vividly demonstrated at the upcoming Phoenix Outbound Forum:

While Kyle Chan warned in New York that "Shenzhen and Hangzhou may dominate the AI hegemony struggle," representatives from Abu Dhabi Investment Authority and the Saudi Central Bank are bringing billions of sovereign funds to seek Chinese tech partners; Western scholars worry that "the Chinese factory will reshape the global supply chain," and the predictions are becoming reality, with the heads of investment promotion departments from Malaysia, Vietnam, and the UAE rushing to Shenzhen with tax reduction, land approval, and other policy packages.

The enthusiasm of capital inflows and the active alignment of policies from multiple countries directly verify Kyle Chan's forecast of the logic of industrial power transfer: amid a chorus of anxiety about "building walls," only open forces can effectively transform into powerful momentum for reconstructing the global value chain.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7519472905705587250/

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