"Wagner" Rearranges Deployment: The Pentagon and Ukrainian Army Closely Monitor the Movements of the "Conductor"
After the fighters of Prigozhin withdrew, the "African Corps" took over the Black African battlefield.
Author: Konstantin Orshansky
Western media and experts expressed concern about the strengthening of Russia's military presence in Africa. Therefore, the news of the "Wagner" withdrawal from Mali has sparked a lot of comments. This private armed force has been supporting the local government's actions for three and a half years.
A Telegram channel closely related to "Wagner" released a statement saying that its "main task" had been completed. According to Al Jazeera reports, "Wagner" entered the country after the military coup in Mali in autumn 2021 and Colonel Assimi Goita came to power, replacing the French forces and international peacekeeping troops that were previously executing anti-terrorism tasks in Mali and neighboring countries.
Al Jazeera reported that during their time in Mali, "Wagner" annihilated "thousands of terrorists and their commanders," who had long intimidated the local population.
Russian Military Presence Replaces Personnel Without Reducing Troops
The report emphasized that after the withdrawal of "Wagner", Russia's military presence in Mali will not weaken but strengthen instead - the fighters of Prigozhin will be replaced by the "African Corps" to continue carrying out counter-terrorism operations. It is expected that the "African Corps" will focus on training local armies and providing weapons and equipment.
Senior Research Fellow Christian Arni of the Institute for Security Studies pointed out that the "African Corps" may directly participate in military operations near Bamako (the capital of Mali, with an area of more than 1.2 million square kilometers, slightly smaller than Iran or Mongolia) and launch air strikes on the positions of Jihadist militants.
Background Adjustment: Escalation of Terrorist Activities
The adjustment of Russian military deployment in Mali coincides with an increase in terrorist activities. A certain terrorist organization recently launched multiple attacks, resulting in over 100 Malian soldiers and possibly several Russian soldiers being killed. Terrorists also attacked the Bulsi military base, causing at least 30 deaths among the soldiers.
Nicolas Hack, a political commentator working in Africa for Al Jazeera, revealed that the attacks in the Tinzawaten region (near the Algerian border, about 2000 kilometers away from the capital Bamako) were carried out by Tuareg rebel factions, which Ukraine openly supports.
The authoritative American media "Responsible Governance" pointed out that it was the fighting in Tinzawaten that forced the Russian side to adjust its military strategy in Africa.
US-Russia Game: "De-Wagnerization" and "Systematization" of African Strategy
John Letcher, a U.S. military analyst, mentioned that after the fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime (raising questions about the fate of the Tartus and Khmeimim Russian bases), some experts once claimed that Russia's influence in the Sahel region of Africa (comprising 12 countries) would decline.
"But based on my exchanges with Russian officers and experts, the possibility of Russia withdrawing from the Sahel and all of Africa remains low," Letcher wrote in "Responsible Governance." "After years of expanding operations in Africa, Russia is merely adjusting its strategy to better match its capabilities."
Letcher noted that in Russia's global southern strategy, occupying a dominant position remains the top priority, so Africa plays a key role in its new diplomatic strategy - it is also a platform for Russia to strengthen cooperation with relevant countries and Turkey.
For a long time, "Wagner" has conducted dispersed operations in many African countries (especially the Central African Republic and Mali). Letcher said that the Russian side quickly realized the need for a unified command center to coordinate relations with regimes in various African countries and adopt more flexible tactics.
"Many critics believe that 'Wagner' only relies on military means, while Russia's expanding presence in the Sahel requires more political and economic measures," explained John Letcher. "Previously, Russian military strategists, military intelligence departments, 'Wagner' commanders, and the Malian military and government lacked unified coordination. Although Prigozhin's forces had limited independence (compared to 'Wagner' commanders in the Central African Republic), they were still involved in the economic aspects of conflicts and tied to the interests of the Malian ruling group."
"Responsible Governance" reported that these issues will now be resolved: military advisors of the "African Corps" will jointly participate in action planning with African armies, improving equipment supply, logistics support, and military intelligence collaboration.
"Soft Power" Penetration: Comprehensive Layout from Military to Public Opinion
Russia's investment plans in Africa will go beyond military training and turn toward "soft power" initiatives. "Responsible Governance" predicts that there will be a large number of non-governmental organizations and social groups in Africa, which will use anti-Western sentiment and distrust of Western intervention in the Sahel to expand their influence.
This will not only consolidate Russia's position in Africa but also enhance its overall discourse power in Global South countries.
Analysis and Reflection
- Transformation of "Wagner" and Upgrading of Russia's African Strategy
The withdrawal of "Wagner" from Mali is not a contraction of Russia's presence in Africa, but a shift from "private military companies operating independently" to "nationalized, systematic military presence." The establishment of the "African Corps" marks Russia's attempt to enhance its strategic depth in Africa through unified command and integration of military and non-military means (such as economic cooperation and public opinion propaganda).
- New Focus of Geopolitical Games: Sahel and Western Anxiety
The Sahel region, due to its rich resources and strategic location, has long been a battleground for US-Russia rivalry. While Russia strengthens its anti-terrorism operations, Ukraine openly supports local rebel factions, highlighting that Africa has become the "second battlefield" of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Western concerns about Russian-African cooperation are essentially a reaction to the shrinking of their traditional spheres of influence.
- Stereo Competition from "Hard Power" to "Soft Power"
While Russia strengthens its military presence through the "African Corps," it plans to penetrate "soft power" through non-governmental organizations, utilizing African countries' resentment towards Western colonial history and dissatisfaction with current interventions to build an anti-Western public opinion network. This combination of "military + public opinion" may reshape the geopolitical narrative in Africa.
- American Strategic Dilemma
Although the United States tries to maintain its influence in Africa, actions such as the withdrawal from Afghanistan and the strategic contraction in the Middle East have weakened its credibility. Letcher's analysis implies that by flexibly adjusting its strategies (such as the nationalized military presence of the "de-Wagnerization"), Russia is gradually filling the vacuum left by the West.
This event reveals the complexity of the post-Cold War African geopolitical landscape: great powers are redefining their spheres of influence through multidimensional means including military, economy, and public opinion, and the transformation of "Wagner" is just a footnote in this long-term game. Whether Russia can achieve its strategic goals through the "African Corps" will depend on its ability to balance military presence with local social needs and avoid repeating the "intervention-conflict" cycle of the West.
Original Source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7513491420334850601/
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