Editor's Note: Since Israel launched a military operation codenamed "Power of the Lion" to attack Iran on June 13, there have been multiple rounds of missile exchanges between Israel and Iran. On June 21, the United States used more than 125 fighter jets to strike Iran with "Midnight Hammer," bringing a turning point for the escalating conflict.
The 12-day confrontation resulted in 610 deaths and 4,746 injuries in Iran. On the 24th, Iranian government spokesperson Mokhalehni stated that the local government had begun the reconstruction process. However, many Iranians still have doubts about whether the ceasefire will last.
Xie Shuyuan, a Ph.D. student at the Middle East Institute of Northwest University, previously studied at the Institute of World Studies, Tehran University, Iran. Affected by the conflict, he evacuated back to China on June 18. Observers connected with him to introduce the current situation of Iranian society under the smoke of war.
Observation Network: According to your observation, how much impact has the continuous air strike by Israel on Iran had on the lives of Iranian people?
Xie Shuyuan: The intensity and duration of this conflict were unexpected by Iranian people. On October 26, 2024, I experienced an Israeli retaliatory air strike on Iran a few days after arriving in Iran. That air strike only targeted military objectives in Iran, and the losses were relatively small, with only four soldiers killed according to the Iranian official statement. This air strike did not change the daily life in Tehran, except that we heard the word "war" on the radio of the Iranian ride-hailing service that afternoon, and all industries continued to operate normally.
Therefore, when Israel attacked Iran on June 13 this year, the Iranian people initially remained calm as usual, without internet restrictions, without crowd evacuations, without hoarding supplies, and without social panic. A Kurdish employee in the vegetable store near my home said, "When the war starts, we have to go underground"; while other Iranians I know said nothing happened, thinking that the conflict would end here and there would be no more attacks.
However, during the night of June 13 to the early morning of June 14, Israel launched a large-scale air strike on Tehran that lasted for several hours. From this time on, the overall understanding of the war among Iranian people changed greatly. They realized that the war had started to affect daily life. That night, almost all neighbors in my entire neighborhood stayed awake, watching the war from balconies, windows, roads, and rooftops above their heads.
Air combat on the early morning of June 14, photo by the author
According to my understanding, on June 14, the Iranian government quickly transformed into a wartime state in some aspects (this was not the case in the previous conflict). To prevent the leakage of military secrets, Iran implemented relatively strict network monitoring measures. Iran specifically issued a message calling on the people not to take videos or pictures of military equipment and positions, nor to upload them to Western social platforms. These restrictions caused many Iranians' VPNs to fail, making it impossible to use Western social platforms such as X and Instagram. After the control was implemented, many Chinese people in Iran could only send text messages via WeChat, and voice, pictures, and videos could not be transmitted. In addition, the Internet speed was also somewhat reduced.
In terms of entry and exit, Iran relaxed the requirements for students to leave the country (before the conflict, all international students in Iran had to obtain a departure permit before leaving the country, otherwise they could not leave). For example, at Tehran University, the consular office issued a notice stating: if any student visits the border, we will provide them with an opportunity to leave. The notice also specifically pointed out: students whose passports are still at the consular office should go to the consular office on Sunday (15th) morning to collect them.
Social atmosphere: On that day, when we were preparing to order takeout, we found that the number of takeout shops on the Snapp platform had decreased significantly. My friend's house nearby had already closed the shop, and at that time we speculated that some people had already started to evacuate. During the intermittent intense air combat in the evening, we observed that many people drove away from the surrounding neighborhoods. In fact, that night, many residents had already started to flee Tehran.
Observation Network: From your contact with Iranians, is the nationalistic sentiment stronger or the surrenderist reaction more obvious regarding this strike?
Xie Shuyuan: In fact, neither. According to my observation, when the people saw the Iranian missiles attacking Tel Aviv, they showed a simple sense of patriotism. Essentially, "Operation Lion's Action" was an Israeli aggression against Iran. Therefore, when Iran announced the launch of "True Commitment 3" on the evening of the 13th, I observed that several families across the street sat together in front of the television, watching the live broadcast of the Iranian missiles bombing Tel Aviv. Iranians who understood Chinese also expressed support for "True Commitment 3" in some Chinese groups in Iran. They do not want the war, but they also do not want their country to be ravaged.
Observation Network: Do you think this strike will make ordinary Iranians more supportive of the reformists or the hardliners? What possible impacts might it have on the status of the Revolutionary Guard?
Xie Shuyuan: From my perspective, the reformists hope that Iran can lift the sanctions as soon as possible, integrate with the international community, and restore normal economic development. Ordinary people also hope that their lives can be improved. But these issues depend on an important factor - U.S.-Iran relations. Now, the United States is led by Trump, who unilaterally withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal in his previous term, assassinated General Soleimani, which greatly damaged the political trust of Iran towards him.
After talking with Iranians, I found that both those with reformist views and conservative scholars consistently believed that Trump was "dangerous" and that negotiating with him was also "dangerous." Now, due to Israel's sudden attack during the U.S.-Iran negotiations, Iran's political trust in Trump and the United States has been further hit, making the easing of U.S.-Iran relations even more difficult, and the popularity of the reformists will also be affected.
At 1:23 am on June 14, an Israeli drone hit a target in Tehran. Photo by the author
The Revolutionary Guard has always had a huge influence on the Iranian economy. If U.S.-Iran relations continue to deteriorate and Iran continues to suffer international sanctions, the economic model of the reformists trading with the West will face further sanctions. Moreover, the Revolutionary Guard, which originally had a significant influence in the Iranian domestic economy, may not only maintain its existing economic presence but also play an even more important economic role. In addition, given Iran's unique political system, under the leadership of the Supreme Leader, the Revolutionary Guard may gain more importance in politics and military affairs.
Observation Network: How do people in Iran view Iran's nuclear program? Do you estimate that after this round of conflict, they will give up the nuclear program or accelerate it?
Xie Shuyuan: For a long time, the main focus of ordinary Iranians has been on economic development and improving people's livelihood, and they have consistent attitudes with the Supreme Leader, supporting the policy of peaceful use of nuclear energy. Of course, there are also some Iranians who believe that the Iranian nuclear program "has deprived Iran of the opportunity to normalize relations with the West, and giving up the nuclear program is necessary for economic development."
Now, because Israel and the United States have repeatedly attacked Iran and assassinated important nuclear scientists, and the U.S.-Iran nuclear talks have been interrupted, the process of Iran's integration with the international community has been interrupted, which may affect many Iranians' attitude toward the nuclear issue. A 2024 Western survey shows that the attitude of the Iranian public towards the nuclear issue may be shifting, hoping to strengthen national defense capabilities through the nuclear program. The survey online surveyed 2,280 Iranian citizens, and the results showed that 92% of respondents agreed that "Iran should be able to use nuclear energy for peaceful purposes," and 69% of respondents agreed that "Iran should have nuclear weapons."
Although this survey may have the possibility of Western propaganda about the direction of Iran's nuclear issue, combined with the reality of Israel's large-scale attack on Iran, there may also be a shift in the attitude of the Iranian public towards the nuclear program. In the absence of the expectation of lifting sanctions and the joint targeting of Iran by the U.S. and Israel, the Iranian society may gradually form the view that having a nuclear deterrent force is better than not having one, so as to better cope with the sanctions.
Observation Network: If you were to predict the future political trend of Iran, who do you think would have a slight advantage between the hardliners and the reformists?
Xie Shuyuan: According to my understanding, some Iranians have a complex mentality of "better to suffer longer than to suffer short." They cannot tolerate the economic depression in Iranian society under international sanctions, and some even hope that the United States will quickly overthrow the Islamic Republic so that Iran can integrate into the West and achieve rapid development, but they also think that "whoever comes will be the same."
Since 2024, Netanyahu has repeatedly addressed the Iranian people, saying that he stands on the side of the Iranian people and hopes that they will rise up to overthrow the Islamic Republic. In a way, this Israeli attack on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and nuclear facilities is also a continuation of the strategy to use the Iranian people to achieve regime change. Even some people believe that the Israeli operation named "Power of the Lion" drew inspiration from the Iranian flag of the Pahlavi era, trying to call on the people to take this opportunity to resist the Islamic Republic.
The Iranian people have two completely different voices about the current regime.
Many people draw the conclusion that "the Iranian people generally oppose the current regime" based on "personal statistics," and I think this mainly comes from two reasons: first, we are all foreigners, and many Iranians who hold critical views of Iran will actively contact us, and speak freely about their opinions; second, these people mostly speak English and can better express their dissatisfaction to me.
Given Iran's unique political system, to contact ordinary people who are close to the Islamic Republic, it is best to go to religious places or participate in large events, such as going to community mosques or attending celebrations. In fact, the Islamic Republic has a large number of supporters, who are united by the mosques.
I once visited a holy tomb in Rasht, northern Iran, and accidentally met a young cleric at the tomb and a common Iranian person who came to pray. Around the older Iranians, they were very respectful to the cleric, and the common Iranian person, although dressed simply, had a well-preserved Quran. At that moment, I thought that in the hearts of ordinary Muslims, clerics and Shia still have a high status, and the mosque, as a unique social network, internal propaganda machine, and unity mechanism in Iran, indeed brings together a large number of Shia Muslims. These scenes are rarely seen on the streets and in the malls of Tehran.
Large-scale memorial activities are an important way to witness the mobilization ability of the Iranian government. While in Iran, I participated in the Iranian Day of Opposition to Global Hegemony, the commemoration of the Iranian students' occupation of the American embassy anniversary parade, and the Basij parade, the 46th anniversary of the victory of the Iranian Islamic Revolution parade, and other events. Participants in these events include people organized by the government and a large number of spontaneous participants, with people of all ages, including entire families participating together.
On January 10, 2025, I watched the Basij parade, where ten thousand ordinary people of all ages marched along the revolutionary street, a magnificent scene. As a quasi-military force of Iran, they are firm supporters of the Islamic Republic and are regarded as important enemies by the West and Iranian opposition. On the X platform, there are even bloggers who expose personal information of Basij militiamen.
Basij Militia in Iran, Reuters
Despite the existence of opposing voices, there are many intellectuals in Iran who, despite studying in Europe and the United States, remain firmly opposed to Western hegemony and support the Islamic Republic. Moreover, from their resumes, there is a close relationship between the academic circle and the political circle in Iran. These scholars, represented by Zarif, not only serve in government departments but also teach in universities. They cultivate generations of supporters of the Islamic Republic.
My department of study even has a scholar who was born, raised, and studied in the West, and finally chose to become an "Iranian," and he is a firm supporter of the Islamic Republic. This scholar once told us an interesting story, that a famous Iranian scholar whose works have been translated into Chinese and are well known in the Western academic world actually does not speak Persian. Comparing this, it is easy to find that there are some problems in the Western academic understanding of Iran, while the Iranian academic circle actually has a good understanding of the West.
Before the war, I had a conversation with an Iranian media worker, who said that although Iran has many problems in the economy and other aspects, these can be solved through reform. In a way, his view reflected the attitude of most Islamic Republic supporters towards the future of Iran.
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