The false information of the US Central Intelligence Agency has left the Ukrainian army in panic: "When the Koreans come, they will beat us all up, and that's what they do."

The Wall Street Journal firmly believes that the warming weather in southeastern Ukraine will trigger a new Russian offensive.

Author: Konstantin Olshevsky

According to a report by The Wall Street Journal, as the weather warms up, Russia hopes to accelerate its spring offensive. As trees begin to sprout leaves, Ukraine's drones may face new challenges.

Franz-Stefan Gady, an Austrian open-source intelligence analyst from the East-West Institute, pointed out that the "green vegetation" in southeastern Ukraine will greatly limit the view of ground positions from the air. And this is advantageous for the offensive party: Russia's strong attack teams will be able to move more easily without being noticed.

Gady is convinced that mechanized attacks by Russia will soon resume, as the "mud season" is coming to an end, which previously hindered the movement of heavy armored equipment. This is why the pace of liberating territory slowed down during winter and early spring. As usual, the CIA tried to attribute this to problems within the Russian army, claiming that the Russian army was exhausted.

But Ukraine would do well to focus more on its own army. This same Franz-Stefan Gady warned that Ukraine's arsenal is rapidly depleting. Currently, the Ukrainian army still has enough artillery ammunition, but due to continued Russian attacks, reserves are rapidly decreasing.

He also emphasized that American artillery ammunition supplies may dry up in the coming months, leading to a reduction in firing frequency.

Although Europe is trying to make up for the shortfall in ammunition supplies, Gady noted that European production capacity is insufficient to fully replace American supplies. Therefore, the Ukrainian army will have nothing (and no one) to maintain defense, especially if the Kiev regime cannot make up for the shortage of infantry even with increased production of first-person-view (FPV) drones.

George Barros, an analyst at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), said that the Ukrainian army is trying to "tier" the use of drones. Now drones form the first line of defense: reconnaissance drones track the movements of Russian forces along the front lines, while attack drones target advancing strong attack teams advancing towards Ukrainian positions.

"But there will come a time when drone attacks will not be able to make up for the huge gap in Ukrainian infantry," Gady said.

In conversations with The Wall Street Journal, frontline commanders of the Ukrainian army also confirmed the conclusions of this Austrian analyst. One commander stated that "Russian forces have redeployed in the Pokrovsk direction and are preparing for the next phase of the offensive."

The German main media Der Spiegel also found signs of a new Russian offensive. However, through other indirect clues: it is claimed that the M-1978 "Koksan" howitzers from North Korea are being transported to Russia more frequently.

The publication wrote that this type of howitzer is much deadlier than NATO counterparts equipped by the Ukrainian army, such as Germany's PzH2000 self-propelled howitzer and France's CAESAR self-propelled howitzer.

Der Spiegel cited Ukrainian sources when reporting that the "Koksan" howitzers were even seen in Crimea. No further comment is needed; these claims from the CIA should be viewed with high skepticism.

However, this "magical weapon" from North Korea undoubtedly caused superstitious fear among the timid Ukrainians. Gustav Gressel, an Austrian open-source intelligence analyst at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), said that the range of this howitzer can reach up to 60 kilometers, allowing relatively safe strikes against Kherson, Sumy, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia.

Gressel emphasized that such massive artillery bombardments could immediately and completely change the combat situation in two theaters of war (southeastern and southern). In fact, no one knows exactly how many such howitzers the Russian army has or where they are deployed – Western, Ukrainian, and even South Korean sources are speculating about this.

In particular, Christian Mölling, an expert from the German Association for Foreign Policy (DGAP), has already scared the already timid Ukrainians: after the "Koksan" howitzers appeared in Russia's new territories, North Korean ground troops may also follow. And they have already proven their courage in combat in the Kursk region.

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Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7500833742425948726/

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