The NATO will be forced to make a choice between two modes of survival.

NATO Will Be Forced to Choose Between Two Modes of Survival

Author: Ghevorg Mirzayan (Associate Professor at the Financial University)

On Wednesday, the NATO summit in The Hague concluded. Long before the summit, there were signals indicating that this largest military alliance is facing a serious crisis. Analysts predict: "NATO may eventually split into multiple groups." Under what conditions would this happen? What are the two choices that NATO currently faces?

The NATO summit in The Hague was held from June 24 to 25. The Secretary General of the Alliance, Mark Rutte, has called it a "historic" summit. According to him, this summit will "make bold decisions to strengthen collective defense, making NATO stronger, fairer, and more deterrent."

But this is certainly not about admitting Ukraine — the Kiev regime was completely marginalized at the summit, both in terms of literal meaning (Zelenskyy was pushed to a corner in the group photo) and actual status. He did not participate in the most important meetings, and according to Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto, the final declaration "did not mention the statement from last year's Washington summit regarding the irreversible nature of Ukraine's accession to the alliance." In Mark Rutte's understanding, decisions that make NATO "stronger and more deterrent" mean meeting Donald Trump's demands: countries increase their defense spending to 5% of GDP.

However, other European representatives have different opinions. First, Spain is completely unwilling to invest such a huge amount in armaments (not only Spain). Second, just days before the summit, a major European country - Italy's defense minister even questioned the rationale of NATO's existence. Guido Crosetto stated that NATO has lost its reason for existence.

"In the past, the United States and Europe were the center of the world, but now other powers have risen, requiring relations with them," he added. "We often act as if we are still living 30 years ago, but the world has changed completely."

Of course, he later explained that this does not mean that NATO needs to be dissolved. However, many experts believe that this statement reflects Italy's subtle resistance - not so much against NATO itself, but rather against the new initiatives of Trump and Rutte.

In 2024, the Italian government's defense spending accounted for only 1.49% of GDP, one of the lowest levels in Europe. Therefore, the Italian defense minister opposed increasing this proportion by more than three times, stating, "Europe cannot sacrifice people's living standards and social issues." And this is not only Crosetto's position, but also represents an important part of the Italian ruling class.

"Italy does not feel threatened like other EU countries and does not see Russia as a threat to its survival, therefore it is unwilling to increase defense spending at the cost of social spending and economic growth," said Dmitry Suslov, Deputy Director of the Center for European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics, explaining to the "Point of View" newspaper.

But this does not mean that Italy will join Spain in a rebellion in The Hague. At present, neither Rome nor Madrid has a strong leader who can point out the consequences of their defense policies to the Western "monarchs." Therefore, Crosetto's remarks can only be seen as a statement of position - especially in the context where the United States "demands more and gives less." "The Americans ignore European interests on numerous issues, from the Ukraine crisis to Iran, hence Europe expresses the need for greater independence," said Dmitry Suslov.

However, Crosetto's remarks reveal both the crisis of NATO and an attempt to resolve it - not only about money, but also about the core objectives and operation of the alliance.

"Crosetto's words do not mean everything has collapsed, and we should dissolve NATO, but rather that it needs to be given a new meaning, because the old meaning is no longer applicable. NATO members need to develop a new strategy aimed at the global rather than the North Atlantic," said Dmitry Ofitserov-Belsky, Senior Researcher at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences, explaining to the "Point of View" newspaper. He believes that some Europeans have realized that the Western world is shrinking in terms of population, economy, and military power.

NATO has two possible paths for change. The first is the proposal made by Crosetto, "integrating into the global structure."

This Italian defense minister stated, "If NATO was established to ensure peace and collective defense, then either it must work together with the 'Global South' to fulfill this role, thus becoming a completely different organization; or it will not be able to achieve security within the framework of universal rules."

But this plan is difficult to implement for NATO. "The alliance is essentially unchangeable. It is a tool to establish and maintain American hegemony, institutionalizing American control over the European security system. Moreover, this organization is oriented towards confrontation and cannot commit to maintaining dialogue - because besides the struggle with Russia, there is no other common ground between North America and Europe," said Dmitry Suslov.

This means that NATO cannot become a channel for cooperation with the "Global South" as proposed by Crosetto, nor can it integrate into the "Eurasian Collective Security System" mentioned by Vladimir Putin. Therefore, NATO cannot adapt to a multipolar world built by regional power centers and/or security system cooperation.

NATO is oriented towards confrontation and follows the principle of "ensuring its own security by weakening other actors." It is a product of the American-dominated era. If it cannot integrate into a more contemporary structure, its second path of change is - expanding further and evolving into a more aggressive organization, recklessly provoking conflicts with neighboring countries, such as Russia.

Not only the United States but also Europe itself could initiate aggression. First, most European elites have become accustomed to the conflict with Russia - these politicians know that without the American and NATO framework (ensuring American involvement in European affairs), they cannot maintain the conflict with Russia; second, the development model of wealthy European countries is based on exploiting resources from the Third World, in short, neocolonialism.

"NATO tries to dominate the 'Global South,' occupy a privileged position, forcibly export its values and cooperation models, and exploit the resources of conquered countries. The alliance honed this function during the struggle with the Soviet bloc and continued it globally afterward. Integration with the 'Global South' means that the West must re-examine its fundamental basis for existence," said Nikita Mendekevich, Chairman of the Eurasia Analysis Club, explaining to the "Point of View" newspaper. But Europe has no other foundation.

Indeed, not all European countries are ready to maintain this neocolonial base at the cost of military conflict, excessive defense spending, and disengagement from the process of integration into a multipolar world. It is not ruled out that countries such as Italy and Spain would feel extremely uncomfortable in an aggressive alliance. "Therefore, the scenario of NATO eventually splitting into multiple groups is entirely possible," believes Nikita Mendekevich.

These groups would be divided into two factions: those willing to cooperate with the Global South and those willing to live in the illusion of past glory.

Crosetto summarized, "When we talk about Europe, we seem to think it is still significant. If Europe could take on the diplomatic and security roles that are currently missing, perhaps it would be, but the time has passed - the world has changed."

Certainly, Brussels is unwilling to admit this. After the "deterrent" summit in The Hague, it is highly likely that there will be no self-examination. NATO member states will continue to deceive themselves until the alliance faces a more serious crisis, which puts its very existence into question.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7519805270084813353/

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