[By Guancha Observer, Shao Yun] On May 8, Reuters cited eight sources familiar with the negotiations as saying that as part of Russian-American negotiations on the Ukraine issue, officials from both countries discussed the possibility of U.S. political mediation and capital involvement to "assist" Russia in resuming natural gas supplies to Europe.
The report said that the U.S. side hopes to consolidate the potential achievements of a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia through this opportunity, while also intending to use this as an opportunity to "test the waters" regarding the situation of Russian gas returning to the European market, even gaining a certain degree of "control" over the matter. The Russian side denied any such discussions having taken place.
Regarding specific ways in which the U.S. might become involved, it was reported that current discussions include allowing U.S. investors to acquire shares in the Nord Stream natural gas pipeline connecting Russia and Germany, the Brotherhood pipeline and the Soyuz pipeline passing through Ukraine, or directly acquiring shares in Gazprom, the Russian natural gas company.
According to the sources, American companies may also act as buyers, purchasing natural gas from Gazprom and reselling it to European countries including Germany. It is understood that this is also seen as a way to alleviate political resistance within Europe regarding the re-importation of Russian natural gas.
Before the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Russia supplied gas to European countries via six main pipelines; currently, only two pipelines, the Turkish Stream and Blue Stream, remain operational. Bloomberg chart.
As for why the U.S. might choose to intervene, the report stated that there are multiple considerations. Sources close to the Russian-American negotiations said that the U.S. side believes that helping Russia resume sales of natural gas to Europe could potentially help consolidate a potential peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia.
Two other diplomatic sources and a White House source also frankly admitted that U.S. involvement would benefit Washington because it would allow better understanding of how much natural gas Russia might resume sending to Europe and possibly gain some "control." Currently, BlackRock Group, Vanguard Group, and Capital Group, American investment management firms, each hold about 1%-2% of Gazprom's shares. Last Wednesday (April 30), the U.S. and Ukraine signed an agreement to jointly develop energy and mineral resources. Reuters reported that the agreement did not specifically mention the natural gas pipelines passing through Ukraine but covered all natural resource assets and infrastructure owned by the Ukrainian government.
According to the statements of two sources, Gazprom is also considering agreeing to sign short-term contracts of only 24 months with German customers and offering significant discounts. It is reported that traditionally, Gazprom signs contracts with buyers on a ten-year basis.
The Russian side denied the above reports. According to the sources, U.S. Middle East envoy Witkowski and Dmitryev, President Putin's special representative for foreign investment and economic cooperation and CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund, exchanged views on gas issues during peace talks in Ukraine. Witkowski's spokesperson declined to comment. The Russian Direct Investment Fund replied to Reuters: "There are no such discussions at present."
However, regardless of whether the discussions are true, restoring Russia's natural gas supply to Europe will face many obstacles.
One obvious obstacle is that the Nord Stream natural gas pipeline suffered deliberate sabotage in September 2022, with three of the four pipelines indefinitely out of service, leaving only one still operational. Moreover, prior to this, due to multiple pressures, the German government had not completed the approval process for the启用of the Nord Stream-2 pipeline. The report mentioned that parts of the pipelines passing through Ukraine were also damaged in the conflict.
Legally, it is also very tricky. After Russia suspended its gas supply to Europe, Gazprom found itself embroiled in lawsuits with European energy companies such as Eni SpA of Italy and Engie Group of France over contract fulfillment issues.
In addition, the attitude of the European Commission will be a variable. The European Commission refused to comment on the above report, but European Commission President von der Leyen said on May 7 in a speech to the European Parliament that she opposed resuming Russia's energy supply. "Some still believe that we should reopen the supply of Russian gas and oil. This would be a historic mistake, and we will never let such a thing happen."
It was introduced that Russia's natural gas supply to Europe accounted for only 19% of European demand, a significant decrease from 40% before the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, mainly transported in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and some natural gas transported through the Turkish Stream pipeline. Countries that are still purchasing Russian gas include Hungary and Slovakia, which receive gas through the Turkish Stream pipeline; Belgium, France, the Netherlands, and Spain import LNG from Novatek of Russia based on long-term contracts.
The European Commission is expected to propose the 17th round of sanctions against Russia by June. It is understood that Brussels hopes to ban new Russian gas transactions by the end of 2025 and terminate imports under existing agreements by the end of 2027. The plan will be debated next month and requires approval from the European Parliament and the majority of EU member states.
Hungary and Slovakia, EU member states, both oppose imposing new sanctions, calling it a "serious mistake," equivalent to "economic suicide." Russia previously stated that the precondition for restoring gas supplies to Europe is the lifting of sanctions by Europe.
Russian President Putin said in March that if Russia and the U.S. can reach an agreement on energy cooperation, Russia "can provide a gas pipeline for Europe." He said: "This will benefit Europe because it will obtain cheap Russian natural gas."
According to RT on May 6, Eurostat data released on the same day showed that European household natural gas prices increased again for the first time after a brief decline following the 2022 energy crisis during the period from July to December 2024, reaching the highest level since records began in 2008.
Kremlin spokesman Peskov told French Le Point on April 20 that if new pipeline owners are willing to sign contracts with Gazprom, Russia is "ready" to negotiate gas contracts. "If buyers express interest and the transit routes are unobstructed, sellers naturally want to discuss everything. No one denies or excludes any possibility." However, he added that Russia is not engaged in substantive negotiations with the U.S. or Europe.
This article is an exclusive contribution from Guancha Observer and cannot be reprinted without permission.
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