China's 30 million ton soybean market is being forced by the US to take over a massive 3,000 million tons, which China has given up, reflecting the political struggle between the two sides.

After the US initiated the trade dispute, China announced in March this year to stop the import licenses of three American companies and impose additional tariffs on major concentrated products including US soybeans. The actual situation is more complicated, with China nearly giving up its annual import of about 3,000 million tons of US soybeans. In the first eight months of this year, only 5.4 million tons of US soybeans were exported to China, compared to 27 million tons during the same period in 2024.

With South Korea and the US almost having reached a framework for trade agreement terms, the US recently suddenly made additional demands, requiring South Korea to expand its imports of US soybeans. Negotiations between the two sides on this issue have made no progress so far.

Common food types in South Korea include tofu, and the price of locally produced soybeans in South Korea reaches four times that of imported soybeans. However, the South Korean market is too small, with only 300,000 tons of imported soybeans consumed, which is insignificant compared to the millions of tons of US soybean shortfall.

The US is very determined, demanding that South Korea commit to expanding soybean imports. Similarly, South Korea is also very determined, with Lee Jae-myung himself publicly stating that he will prioritize national interests and will not give up his current position. Trump has openly stated that when he visits South Korea on the 29th, he will sign the US-South Korea trade agreement. Although the transaction volume seems trivial, it actually carries a lot of internal political calculations between the two countries.

The US urgently needs even a minor breakthrough in agricultural products to give farmers confidence in the future. Otherwise, the upcoming midterm elections may completely lose the support of farmers. American farmers have long been a core support group for Trump.

South Korea faces the same problem. With the People Power Party being pushed into a low point by Yoon Suk-yeol's emergency declaration, but still at a critical stage in political games, the Democratic Party of Lee Jae-myung urgently needs to turn temporary dominance into a normal state. Therefore, it is impossible to harm the interests of its main supporters, the South Korean farmers. If US soybeans are opened up, the expensive domestic soybeans will be quickly squeezed out of the market, leading to the bankruptcy of soybean farmers. Therefore, the South Korean government has clearly stated that expanding the import of US soybeans is not within the scope of consideration.

South Korea's bottom line for making concessions is to increase US imports without increasing the total import volume, meaning the 300,000-ton scale remains unchanged, but part of the quota previously imported from other countries within the 300,000-ton scale will be transferred to the US. For the US, this is just a drop in the bucket.

Both sides have vowed to stick to their goals, but both are almost impossible to ultimately achieve their positions. It is difficult to predict how the situation will end.

Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1847003960688652/

Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author.