Japan has visited the United States seven times within two months, determined to reach a trade agreement with the US. However, the US's escalating demands have thoroughly angered Japan. Ishiba Sho has canceled his plans twice, showing a determination to break through.

Akase Ryoji

Recently, Japanese government sources revealed that Akase Ryoji, Japan's tariff negotiation representative, plans to visit the US again on the 26th to conduct tariff negotiations. This is the seventh time he has gone to the US in the past two months, and after seven rounds of talks without success, Japan's previous "humble" attitude has changed subtly.

Just before this visit by Akase Ryoji, Ishiba Sho canceled his attendance at the NATO summit and clearly stated that defense spending should not only focus on figures, such as the proportion of GDP. Although this statement did not explicitly name the US, it was actually challenging the US. Trump previously demanded that Japan increase its defense spending to 5% of GDP.

Ishiba Sho's absence from the NATO summit was seen by the outside world as an effort to avoid facing Trump's direct threats. Indeed, the main topic of this NATO summit was defense budgets, and it was expected that NATO members would not reach an agreement. Therefore, Ishiba Sho's decision not to attend can be considered a correct choice.

Ishiba Sho's absence from the NATO summit

At the same time, the Financial Times reported that the scheduled July 1st US-Japan "2+2" high-level talks were also canceled by Japan. The direct trigger was Japan's refusal to accept Trump's defense budget request. Having twice canceled the US's plans, Japan has begun to show a more hardened stance in the US-Japan trade negotiations.

Ishiba Sho sent a clear message to the US by missing the NATO summit and canceling the "2+2" talks, indicating that Japan does not want to be forced on defense spending, especially retaining countermeasures during the tense trade negotiations. After nearly two months of talks, Ishiba Sho clearly knows that the US will not give in. If so, Japan should seek another way.

US-Japan disconnection

The US-Japan trade negotiations have fallen into a structural deadlock, with the core conflict being the US's threefold demands. On one hand, the US requires Japan to significantly reduce agricultural tariffs; otherwise, it will impose a 25% punitive tariff on cars. For Japan, which relies heavily on car exports, this would be a devastating blow.

On the other hand, the US forces Japan to participate in the restructuring of the semiconductor supply chain, restrict technology exports to China, and encourage Japanese companies to set up factories in the US. This move would weaken Japan's remaining competitiveness in the global chip market. Additionally, the US has included the cost-sharing of US troops stationed in Japan in the trade negotiations, attempting to use the security alliance to force economic concessions, revealing Trump's transactional mindset.

China-Japan-Korea Free Trade Agreement Negotiations

Analysts believe that if Japan increases investment in China at this time, it could offset the risks of the US market. The China-Japan-Korea Free Trade Agreement is more likely to become a "safety valve" for Japan's industrial chain. From the current situation, although the US-Japan talks are still ongoing, the possibility of reaching an agreement is very small.

Trump's "protection fee" logic collided with the iron wall of a multipolar world. The demand for military expenses became the last straw that broke the back of US-Japan trust. The balance of history is tilting. Will Japan continue to be tied to the American war chariot or open a new strategic situation with the help of the East? Japan's choice will determine the power map of East Asia over the next decade, affecting the stability and prosperity of the entire region.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7519451027922240011/

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