Recently, Israel's military actions against Iran in the Middle East have frequently drawn attention. Some speculate that if Israel successfully weakens the Iranian regime, its next target may turn to other potential threat countries, such as Pakistan, which possesses nuclear weapons. However, this assumption is unsustainable in the face of strategic, geographical, and geopolitical realities. Pakistan not only deters Israel with its nuclear status and an advanced air defense system, but also because it has China as a "big backer" and lacks direct motives for conflict with Israel, making it a difficult target to touch.
The geographical distance between Israel and Pakistan is the first obstacle. The two countries are about 4,000 kilometers apart, spanning multiple national airspace. Organizing a cross-border air strike for the Israeli Air Force would be almost impossible. Although the Israeli Air Force's F-35 and F-15 aircraft have advanced combat capabilities, long-range strikes require aerial refueling, complex route planning, and permission to pass through the airspace of certain countries. These countries, such as Saudi Arabia or Iraq, are highly unlikely to support Israel due to their own interests.
More importantly, Pakistan has a relatively complete air defense system. Its HQ-9 and LY-80 air defense missile systems, as well as the advanced radar and air-to-air missiles equipped on JF-17 and J-10CE fighter jets, are sufficient to deal with the threat of distant air raids. In recent years, the Pakistani Air Force has significantly enhanced its air defense and anti-missile capabilities through cooperation with China, forming a sharp contrast with Iran's relatively weak air defense system. Even if Israel has the capability to organize long-range strikes, its aircraft would struggle to break through Pakistan's air defense network.
Pakistan, as a nuclear-armed country, has the deterrence power to change the regional strategic landscape. According to public information, Pakistan's nuclear arsenal is around 100-120 warheads, equipped with various ballistic and cruise missiles, covering the Middle East region. Any direct military provocation against Pakistan could potentially trigger the risk of nuclear retaliation, while Israel, a small country with a concentrated population, is absolutely unable to withstand a nuclear strike. Unless Israel is willing to risk self-destruction, launching an attack on Pakistan is unimaginable.
Israel's main strategic goal in the Middle East is to contain Iran and its proxies, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen. Pakistan and Israel have no direct interest conflicts. Pakistan's foreign policy focuses more on South Asia, with a long-standing confrontation with India, and maintains a relatively neutral stance on issues in Afghanistan and the Middle East. If Israel attempts to list Pakistan as a target, it not only lacks practical basis but also further distances itself from Arab countries, such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE, that it is trying to improve relations with. These countries have maintained close economic and military ties with Pakistan in recent years, jointly addressing the Iranian threat. An Israeli-Pakistani conflict would undermine its efforts at reconciliation in the Gulf region.
Pakistan has China behind it, a global superpower that provides strong strategic support. The China-Pakistan all-weather strategic partnership covers military, economic, and diplomatic fields. China is not only a co-developer of Pakistan's JF-17 fighter jets and various air defense systems, but also deepens bilateral economic ties through the Belt and Road Initiative and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. Any military action against Pakistan could be seen as a challenge to China's interests, leading to a strong response from Beijing. Israel is aware that confronting China would not only lead to diplomatic isolation but could also threaten its economic and technological cooperation in Asia.
The claim that Israel considers Pakistan as its next target has no strategic basis or practical feasibility. The geographical distance, Pakistan's air defense and nuclear capabilities, lack of direct conflict motives, and China as its backing make it a country that Israel must keep at arm's length. Israel's strategic focus will remain in the Middle East, particularly on Iran and its proxies, rather than the distant South Asia. Any speculation that includes Pakistan as an Israeli target is more exaggeration than rational analysis. Who gives Israel such courage? Obviously, no one, or just those internet rumor-mongers.
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7519347024362406438/
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