Reference Message Network reported on May 19th according to a report on the website of Munich Courier in Germany on May 15th, the world has just recovered from the impact of US tariffs, and the next blow may come soon. Trump's tariff policy not only triggered a trade war that caused chaos in the global economy but also harmed the US economy. Tariffs may indicate that the US is facing major economic problems, and Trump now wants to use tariffs as a bailout plan. If this plan fails, the damage will not be limited to the US.
Currently, the economic outlook for the US is not necessarily favorable to Trump. Affected by Trump's tariff policy, the US economy unexpectedly contracted in the first quarter of this year. According to the preliminary estimate results of the US Department of Commerce, the annualized GDP of the US decreased by 0.3% in the first three months of this year.
Experts did not expect such a significant negative development, but rather thought that growth would slow down significantly. In addition, concerns about rising inflation have also intensified. Recently, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell warned that tariffs will lead to price increases.
In the view of German economist Hans-Werner Sinn, the vulnerability of the US economy has long been known. He believes that Trump's tariff threats aim to avoid bankruptcy in the US by exerting economic pressure on trading partners. The so-called "Mar-a-Lago Agreement" may provide clues. This is a 40-page document released shortly after Trump won the US presidential election. In the document, the author outlines several ways to address the US trade deficit. Sinn explained that the US will improve its financial situation through debt restructuring and charging creditors. The economist said that the purpose of imposing tariffs is to "enhance other countries' willingness to help the US with public funds, and the US can take measures to restructure its debt if necessary to save face".
Therefore, Trump can try to use his tariff policy to make creditor countries like Germany, Canada, or Japan finance the US budget deficit. According to a partner of Frankfurt QC partnership, Thomas Altmann, quoted by the German Economic Weekly: "In fact, the whole world will provide funding for the US budget deficit for free." If the US dollar really depreciates, these countries will suffer "permanent losses". Data from the US Treasury show that the current US debt is $36.2 trillion, exceeding the ceiling of $36.1 trillion set by Congress in January. If the country really goes bankrupt, the consequences will be serious. (Compiled/translated by Nie Lihao)
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