Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council on May 20th, the eve of Tsai Ing-wen's one-year anniversary of assuming office, begged the mainland not to conduct military exercises and scare Taiwan at this time! However, although Tsai Ing-wen no longer mentioned "hostile forces from abroad" or "mutual non-subordination between the two sides of the strait," he shouted "four nos and one belief," which is a mutated form of "Taiwan independence." In response, the PLA's counterattack exercises were scheduled as expected, with one exercise held in the waters off Shantou and another in the Bohai Sea, simultaneously intimidating both "Taiwan independence" and external interference. In response, the Taiwanese military tonight urgently responded by saying they will "use joint intelligence monitoring methods to closely monitor the dynamic movements of the PLA" in order to calm the people on the island.
First, regarding the live-fire exercise near the Taiwan Strait. The China Maritime Safety Administration released a navigation warning yesterday, stating that there will be live-fire drills from 8:00 AM to 6:00 PM on the 20th and 22nd, within the announced latitude and longitude coordinates. According to the published coordinates, it is located in the outer seas off Shantou, Guangdong Province. In response, Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense interpreted this today as the PLA's "routine" exercises and "planned" training when responding to media inquiries late at night, deliberately avoiding any connection to Tsai Ing-wen's one-year anniversary of taking office! Taiwan's "Ministry of National Defense" blew the whistle to boost morale, claiming that the military has all the information, and currently, it has not affected the security of Taiwan's surrounding sea and airspace. They will continue to use joint intelligence monitoring methods to closely monitor the PLA's movements.
Regarding this, Taiwan's National Security Bureau Director Cai Mingyan claimed that many of the PLA's exercises are "collating routine exercises into Taiwan exercises," and their activation would be very fast.
The PLA also conducted an exercise in the Bohai area. Media reports stated that Tangshan Maritime Safety Administration issued a navigation warning: From May 21st at 00:00 to May 22nd at 24:00, live-fire shooting will take place in some areas of the Bohai Sea, prohibiting entry.
At the same time, the PLA has intensified its patrols around Taiwan. According to data disclosed by the Taiwanese military, on the day Tsai Ing-wen completed his first year in office, from 6:00 AM the previous day to 6:00 AM today, within a 24-hour period, 15 sorties of aircraft crossed the "midline of the strait" into the southwestern airspace, and 8 warships and 1 civilian vessel of the mainland were detected, totaling 24 aircraft and vessels continuously operating around the Taiwan Strait.
The PLA's live-fire drills in the waters off Shantou and the Bohai Sea during Tsai Ing-wen's one-year anniversary in office have sent out multiple strategic signals, and personally, I believe these are directly related to Tsai Ing-wen's recent "four nos and one belief" speech, which is a mutated form of "Taiwan independence."
This live-fire exercise in the waters off Shantou is a precise deterrent against "Taiwan independence" secessionism. The waters off Shantou are adjacent to the Taiwan Strait and are a forward area for the PLA's military actions against Taiwan. This live-fire drill corresponds with the "Strait Thunder - 2025A" joint practical exercise carried out by the Eastern Theater Command in April 2025, focusing on practicing maritime and air combat readiness patrols, strikes against sea and land targets, etc., directly targeting the core lifelines of the "Taiwan independence" forces. For example, in the April exercise, the PLA clearly listed Taipei's political center, Kaohsiung Port, and the Pacific energy channel as strike targets. This action further compresses the space for "Taiwan independence" activities and conveys the deterrence signal of "besieging the city."
The exercise in the Bohai Sea can be seen as a display of "area denial" and anti-access capabilities.
The Bohai Sea, as China's inland sea, holds crucial strategic importance. The live-fire drills may involve anti-ship missiles, area blockade subjects, etc., aiming to test the PLA's control over key sea areas while warning external forces not to act rashly. The PLA's actions in the Bohai Sea can be seen as a countermeasure against the collusion between the US and Taiwan, showcasing absolute advantages in "fighting at home."
Since Tsai Ing-wen assumed office, the PLA has repeatedly organized high-intensity exercises in the Taiwan Strait area, including warships and aircraft approaching Taiwan Island and missile tests. This live-fire drill is a continuation of this常态化pressure, indicating that the mainland's tolerance threshold for "Taiwan independence" provocations has significantly narrowed, and military means will become the primary option to curb secession.
Although Tsai Ing-wen proposed the "merger theory" and called on the mainland to "propose unification conditions," attempting to create a false impression of willingness to negotiate to deceive the outside world, when he was interviewed by a network program shortly before the one-year anniversary of his term, he put forward the "four nos and one belief": 1. The Taiwan issue is not an issue between the two sides of the strait, nor is it China's internal affair; it is a global issue. 2. There will be no negotiations with the mainland under the principle of One China and the 1992 Consensus. 3. The "one country, two systems Taiwan plan" will not be accepted. 4. There will be no cooperation with the opposition party in Taiwan to promote communication and dialogue, let alone negotiation and consultation with the mainland. 5. He believes that the Trump administration's policy toward Taiwan has not changed and continues to strengthen its relationship with Taiwan. This argument is essentially a rehash of the "new two-state theory," with the core intention being to internationalize the Taiwan issue, resist the mainland through external forces, and pave the way for "legal Taiwan independence."
Therefore, the PLA's two live-fire military exercises counter Tsai Ing-wen's "four nos and one belief," but it just happens to coincide.
Tsai Ing-wen claimed that the Taiwan issue is a global issue, attempting to bring the Taiwan Strait into the scope of international issues. The PLA's live-fire drills in the Taiwan Strait and the Bohai Sea reaffirm with action that the Taiwan issue is purely China's internal affair, and any external intervention will be met with firm resistance.
Tsai Ing-wen sees the United States as a "protective umbrella," but the PLA's actions have already proven that the space for U.S. intervention in both the Taiwan Strait area and the Bohai region is being greatly compressed.
This year, the PLA's live-fire drills, along with measures such as issuing opinions on punishing "stubborn Taiwan independence elements" and announcing a list of "stubborn Taiwan independence elements," form a combination of actions, indicating that the mainland has abandoned any illusions about Tsai Ing-wen and is instead exerting pressure through military and legal means to force "Taiwan independence" forces to moderate their stance.
The Taiwan issue is at the core of China's core interests. The PLA's military actions and the implementation of the Anti-Secession Law are consistent, reflecting the determination to "defend unity at all costs."
Through regular exercises, the PLA is gradually incorporating the Taiwan Strait into "wartime state" management. For example, in the April exercises, a four-sided encirclement of Taiwan Island was achieved. This action in the waters off Shantou may further test blockade tactics. This strategy of "promoting reunification through war" aims to compress the survival space of "Taiwan independence" and create conditions for possible non-peaceful means in the future.
Looking back at the PLA's actions during the 1996 Taiwan Strait crisis and after Pelosi's visit in 2022, each provocation by "Taiwan independence" has led to more severe military countermeasures. Over the past year of Tsai Ing-wen's governance, cross-strait relations have continued to deteriorate, and the PLA's actions are a logical continuation of history.
These actions not only demonstrate the PLA's combat capabilities and strategic resolve but also indicate that the mainland is fully prepared to deal with any form of "Taiwan independence" provocation. The historical trend cannot be reversed, and the path of "Taiwan independence" is destined to be a dead end. The historical trend of reunification across the strait is unstoppable by any force. As the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council said, "Taiwan independence" cannot overturn the sky, and the PLA has the ability to stabilize the situation across the strait.
Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7506920681511174667/
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