Trump will not propose a "division of the world" with Putin, he has other considerations.
The meeting between the Russian and American presidents could resolve many issues, but preparatory work has repeatedly been obstructed.
Author: Dmitry Rodionov
Image caption: Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump (left to right).
Commentary guests:
Dmitry Yerov, Mikhail Nezhmakov
U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Marco Rubio said on CBS's "Face the Nation" that he expects the issue of the upcoming meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin to be resolved soon.
"Preparing for such meetings requires certain work, so I cannot reveal specific locations or dates. But the president wants to push this forward, and he hopes to facilitate the meeting as soon as possible." He stated.
The Secretary of State noted that the Russian side also expressed willingness to meet. It just needs to "coordinate all parties" to determine the time, place, and agenda of the meeting.
The Kremlin stated that high-level dialogue is indispensable for bilateral relations and international issues including the Ukraine conflict, but emphasized that the dialogue requires "long-term and intensive preparation."
—"The meeting between Putin and Trump is undoubtedly necessary, and its preparation itself at least indicates the normalization of Russian-American dialogue, which is undoubtedly a positive signal for the international community." Dmitry Yerov, associate professor at the Political Science Department of the Russian University of Economics, believes.
—"But as we all know, this normalization faces resistance from some American and European elites. Moreover, it should be noted that the preparation for the leaders' meeting is not something achieved overnight; it requires detailed planning, including coordinating schedules, selecting the best venue, and other issues."
It is worth noting that choosing a neutral location will not be interpreted as favoring either side. Clearly, the Trump administration has more motivation to promote the normalization of relations. Russia has adapted to life under sanctions, while the U.S. official level has acknowledged the failure of the Biden administration's Russia policy. The U.S. side needs to initiate the repair of the situation and realize the potential benefits of cooperation with Russia - this point, Trump, as a politician and business tycoon, could not possibly fail to understand.
—"Currently, the intensity of the preparation for this meeting is indeed higher than in the first few months of Trump's second term." Mikhail Nezhmakov, director of the analysis project at the Political Economy Communication Institution, pointed out.
—"The White House can very well claim that in recent months, the Russian side has taken several steps towards Washington, including initiating the first round of negotiations with Ukraine. Indeed, when U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio visited Ukraine before the Istanbul negotiations, he mentioned that the Russian side 'only sent a low-level delegation to Ukraine.' But regardless, the U.S. government now at least has reason to refute critics, saying that holding the meeting is not Trump's unilateral 'concession'."
In addition, all observers have realized how complex the discussion around the Ukrainian crisis is. Even if the meeting between Trump and Putin fails to resolve the Ukrainian crisis, it will not be seen as a failure of this overly self-confident U.S. president, but rather more likely to be interpreted as his last attempt after other means have failed.
Clearly, the U.S. government is trying to guide the public to accept such an interpretation - Rubio's statement that "direct negotiations between U.S. and Russian presidents are the only way to make progress" stems from this.
But on the other hand, if no preliminary results are achieved in resolving the Ukrainian crisis after the meeting between Putin and Trump, the pressure on him domestically will increase. People will remind him that he has repeatedly promised to intensify sanctions against Russia if necessary, and Trump himself confirmed this position when responding to Fox News host Bret Baier's question about sanctions.
If the U.S. determines that the meeting between Trump and the Russian president has failed, the bipartisan bill proposed by Republican and Democratic congressmen to impose a 500% tariff on imports from countries purchasing "oil, gas, uranium, and other products" from Russia will at least be discussed more enthusiastically. This is not to say that a failed meeting would put Trump in a desperate situation, but it would indeed compress his political maneuvering space. Therefore, the White House holds a relatively cautious attitude toward the preparation for the meeting.
Free Media Report: Who needs this meeting more?
— At present, the U.S. side shows a more obvious public interest in preparing for the meeting. Of course, Trump's statement that "nothing will happen unless he meets with Putin" can be seen as part of the traditional political style of the current U.S. president - he always wants to continuously attract attention as a "core player."
But it must be emphasized again that Marco Rubio mentioned the importance of the meeting multiple times, indicating that "preparing for face-to-face talks with Putin" is not an impromptu remark by Trump, but part of the consistent strategy of the current U.S. government.
It can be speculated that the Russian leadership also attaches great importance to this meeting. However, from the perspective of Russian interests, pushing for the meeting too forcefully carries risks - if the negotiations fail to achieve at least perceivable results, the next meeting between U.S. and Russian presidents may take a long time to come.
If the preparation for the meeting does not break down, the White House and the Kremlin are likely to announce the meeting simultaneously.
Free Media Report: Where should the meeting be held? Why not in Moscow or Washington?
— Holding the meeting in Moscow or Washington could become a reason for Trump's domestic opponents to criticize him for "giving too much diplomatic concessions to the Kremlin." Therefore, a neutral location is more likely, with many options - from Saudi Arabia and the UAE to less popular places, including Vietnam, which is currently mentioned less frequently (in February 2019, Trump met with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un here).
Free Media Report: Trump said only he could end the Ukrainian conflict by meeting with Putin. Is this true?
— Obviously, the meeting is not a panacea. If held in the coming weeks, the conflict is likely to continue afterward.
Free Media Report: What other topics need to be discussed? Which are of mutual concern, which are of our concern? What consensus might be reached?
— Trump mentioned discussing "trade" when previewing his call with Putin, meaning broad economic issues. For Russia, at least discussing the prospects of easing sanctions is crucial. The U.S. may involve issues affecting the global energy market and broader international issues in the negotiations. However, this is not like some popular predictions suggest, that Trump will propose dividing the world with Russia. More likely, his mention of wide-ranging international issues is a form of "testing," assessing the possibility of tactical cooperation with Russia on these issues.
Free Media Report: How should the success or failure of the meeting be defined?
— For Trump, any continuation of the Ukrainian peace talks after the meeting is considered relatively successful; for Russia, increasing U.S. pressure on Kiev is a result.
Correspondingly, a scenario of failure for Trump would be the stagnation of the Ukrainian crisis negotiation process; for Russia, the worst-case scenario would be the long-term stagnation of dialogue with the U.S., or even further expansion of U.S. support for Ukraine.
Clearly, many factors depend on the date of the meeting and the situation in the conflict region at that time. But for now, even if the meeting between the U.S. and Russian presidents takes place soon, it is unlikely to become a clear turning point. More likely, if the meeting takes place in the early summer, the situation of the Ukrainian crisis will largely remain unresolved.
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Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7506101203688800819/
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