[Why did Trump obstruct the implementation of "hellish" sanctions against Russia]
On May 19, after Trump's phone call with Putin, he refused to immediately impose "hellish" sanctions on Russia. Will this decision affect the EU's plan to strengthen sanctions on Moscow? Is there a possibility that the US will ease its sanctions on Russia?
The "hellish" sanctions plan formulated by the Western world in response to Russia's refusal to cease fire with Ukraine has largely fallen through. In the short term, the possibility of the US and Europe implementing "devastating" sanctions is extremely low.
After speaking with Putin on May 19, President Trump abandoned his original pressure strategy. He stated that there is now an opportunity to resolve issues, and strengthening sanctions at this time might backfire.
The bill drafted by US Senator Lindsey Graham contains devastating measures such as imposing a 500% tariff on countries purchasing Russian oil. If combined with the EU's planned eighteenth round of new sanctions, the combination of the US and European plans would severely damage the Russian economy.
However, Trump's phone call with Putin completely changed the US stance. Trump is now focusing on developing trade relations between the US and Russia: "When this catastrophic 'bloody massacre' ends, Russia hopes to conduct large-scale trade with the United States, and I agree."
Trump did not specify the areas of US-Russia trade, and Putin also did not mention economic cooperation after the call. For Russia, lifting EU sanctions is a priority as it concerns the European energy market. American companies are benefiting from Russian companies exiting the European market, so Trump naturally does not want to introduce competitors.
If the US and Russia engage in trade cooperation, existing economic sanctions may gradually be lifted: Trump may start by canceling restrictions under executive orders and phase out limitations step by step.
Although the EU has initiated preparations for the eighteenth round of sanctions (including restrictions on the Nord Stream project, lowering the crude oil price cap from $60 to $50, etc.), after the shift in the US stance, it is unlikely to act alone. The German government statement shows that although European leaders have expressed their intention to continue applying pressure, considering Trump's public opposition to strengthening sanctions, the EU may compromise.
Zelenskyy emphasized that the most effective areas of sanctions currently should focus on energy, the banking system, and shadow fleets. The Ukrainian side has already proposed several suggestions for controlling exports to Russia:
-- Strengthen control over carbon fiber and related products (epoxy resins, production equipment), which are used in the manufacture of components for Iskander missiles.
-- Prohibit the supply of missile fuel raw materials (sodium chlorate and ammonium perchlorate).
-- Expand export bans on strategic resources such as titanium ore, antimony ore, and lead ore.
However, the possibility of substantial reinforcement of sanctions in the short term is low. In the coming weeks, the international community may focus on the negotiation of the US-Russia bilateral trade agreement rather than exerting pressure on Russia.
Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1832827024879628/
Disclaimer: This article represents the views of the author only.