Russia's Claims on Ukraine: To Kyiv or Lviv?
Marco Rubio tries to play the role of "Justice World" but ends up in a mess.
Author: Yuri Enzov
Comment Guest: Alexander Shatilov
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that, in his view, the core issue in resolving the Ukrainian conflict lies in: "Russia wants something it currently does not have and has no right to possess, while Ukraine wants to regain something it cannot recover through military means."
In this situation, people can only repeatedly emphasize the "diplomatic mantra" — the crisis must end through negotiations, and the conflict can only be resolved through diplomatic rather than military means.
In general, the main obstacle to achieving peace still lies in the irreconcilable demands of both sides. Russia insists on demanding recognition of the territories it controlled in 2022, including Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions.
Meanwhile, Ukraine attempts to regain control over these regions, and the current U.S. administration believes that this goal cannot be achieved solely through military means. How to reconcile the irreconcilable?
Political scientist, professor, and dean of the School of Social Sciences at the Financial University, Alexander Shatilov, pointed out that Rubio initially had a strong critical stance towards Russia and the special military operation:
"He can be said to belong to the 'hawkish camp', the inheritor of the Cold War era, and thus he was dissatisfied with Trump's 'pro-Putin' policy.
He tried to draw the boundaries of American compromise as firmly as possible. Perhaps, this is a response to our clear definition of our own 'bottom line for survival' — as we say, this is the lowest demand from which we are willing to start.
His words are not intended to appear profound like aphorisms; instead, they aim to dress wishes as reality. But in fact, the situation in Ukraine does not match Rubio's description.
Firstly, this issue needs to be viewed from a historical perspective. From this perspective, our advancement towards southeastern Ukraine is actually the recovery of certain inherent territories.
The second point is that the Russian armed forces are currently in dynamic offensive and continuously achieving success. Therefore, calling us 'unreasonably coveting what does not belong to us' is debatable. I would like to tell him: 'Don't speak too soon!'
I believe that we will make significant progress at least in the next one or two months. In this case, Rubio's argument acknowledges Ukraine's weakness to some extent. Where compromise is needed, one should not be overly rigid.
Zelenskyy not only insists on maintaining the existence of Ukraine but also tries to maintain its territory within the borders of 1991. Even Americans consider this unrealistic.
In other words, on the one hand, Rubio tries to present an 'objective neutrality' — balancing the positions of 'us' and 'you'. However, given the current situation, this position leans more towards being anti-Russian.
Russia clearly states: the four new regions have been written into our constitution. We are almost impossible to give way here.
"Reporter: So what is the significance of Rubio's remarks, even those of Trump? Essentially, they do not truly need Russia. Even if the president fails to fulfill campaign promises and loses some face — this is quite common.
Americans tend to equate some 'mediation mission' with hegemonic pressure. A mediator should be a neutral moderator, not someone who coerces, preaches, or commands others.
Nowadays, when Trump says that Zelenskyy 'has no cards left' — this may be true — we must understand that America has also lost its good cards in the global leadership race. It must face the new world order. Multipolarity may not yet be clearly established geopolitically, but it exists in fact.
"Reporter: Please explain Rubio's viewpoint: what exactly do we have the 'right' to claim? In the past, they said we had the 'right' to retreat to the Urals, now what? Crimea seems to have been 'granted' to us by the United States.
Trump and his team are known for their 'business mindset.' This is first reflected in aggressively selling useless items to consumers while pretending to sell them at exorbitant prices while also bestowing great favors.
In some cases, this is akin to 'selling air.' The so-called 'recognition of Crimea's归属' is such a 'selling air' behavior. Crimea has long been our territory, and the peninsula has been seamlessly integrated without dispute. Americans attempt to package the 'acknowledgment of facts' as a 'great favor' to us.
Americans want to strike another deal, with the core goal of stopping our actions in Ukraine at all costs. Perhaps, in addition to Crimea, they are also prepared to recognize the归属 of Luhansk and Donetsk?
But as the saying goes, 'too much for Atas, too little for Count Dravere.' Ultimately, part of Trump's election premise was that he promised to curb our actions in Ukraine and prevent us from achieving 'geopolitical relief.'
"Reporter: Do you think this is why Trump replaced Biden?
Yes, because Biden is weak in ability, and his team's efficiency is also low.
In this regard, Trump's team is much more efficient, and he is closer to the mindset of the Russian leadership. Therefore, he gained the opportunity to govern. At least, one of his main goals was to stop our advances in the Ukraine direction.
"Reporter: This statement is surprising. Generally, it is believed that for American voters, foreign policy is not key; Americans will not replace the president due to foreign issues. The core is always domestic issues.
American elites have realized that the failure of the West (the United States, Anglo-Saxon countries, call it whatever you want) in Ukraine may trigger global tectonic shifts.
In that case, the West will lose not only in words but also in fact the status of world leaders. Experts believe that any means can be used...
We can only hope that when our government expresses willingness to negotiate a memorandum with Ukraine, they remember the 'market rules' and the overall 'commodity-currency relationship' principles.
Only then can the specific parameters of future peace agreements, the principles of resolution, the possible signing deadlines for permanent treaties, and the temporary ceasefire conditions be correctly defined.
When Rubio emphasizes the essence of the problem, he should remember: according to the Russian Constitution, the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics and the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions became Russian territory as of September 30, 2022.
Until recently, Marco Antonio (Rubio's full name) focused more on Florida affairs than on the Russian Constitution.
But ultimately, why does he call this a 'problem' rather than 'an insignificant minor matter'?
Diplomat Rubio is frustrated that Washington and its allies, despite wanting to provide Ukraine with the "Patriot" air defense system, are struggling themselves. Yes, the air defense system is precisely the typical "diplomatic tool."
Recall that if recent diplomatic efforts (especially the US-Russia presidential phone call) did not yield major progress, people would remember the air defense system.
This not only raises concerns among Ukraine's allies and European leaders but also worries the American hawks.
According to the Financial Times, American European allies are confused by Trump's "mild attitude" toward the results of his talks with Putin.
They expect "stronger measures": sanctions, sanctions, and more sanctions — imposing new restrictions on Russia's energy and financial sectors. However, the U.S. leader instead hinted that there is no need to increase economic pressure on Moscow.
Why should he play the "bad guy"? He has specially cultivated "talents" in Europe, like Kai Kaallas (Estonian Foreign Minister). Let the dogs bark, and let the caravan continue on its way.
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Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7507152364404392474/
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