According to reports from The Indian Express, Hindustan Times, Reuters and other media on May 5th, India has closed all the gates of the Baglihar and Salal two dams located in the upstream area of the Chenab River, completely cutting off the water supply. Video footage shows that the downstream of the dam was once dry, with the riverbed clearly visible, and some sections could even be walked through by local residents.
Although officials from the Indian Irrigation Department claimed they were conducting "sediment clearance operations" aimed at increasing the water supply to northern states from the Indus River system, many Indian media outlets believe this move is India's "retaliatory measure" after determining that the gun attacks in Pakistan-administered Kashmir were related. As of the time of writing, Pakistan has not yet responded.
According to The Indian Express, some of the gates of the two dams have been opened late Monday evening. By evening, the water level in the lower reaches of the Chenab River had risen again. Local police reminded the public to leave the riverbed as soon as possible.
On the local time of the 5th, the bed of the Chenab River dried up, and local residents gathered near the riverbed. Screenshot from RT video.
An official from the National Hydropower Company of India stated on the 5th that after a week of discussion and hydrological tests, India began sediment clearance operations on the Baglihar Dam and reduced the sluice gate, reducing the downstream flow into Pakistan by as much as 90%. Another official confirmed, "We have closed the sluices of the Baglihar hydropower project. We have completed the reservoir cleaning work and now need to refill it. This work started on Saturday."
On the local time of the 5th, the sluices of the Salal Hydropower Station were completely closed. Screenshot from RT video.
The official confirmed that on April 4th, officials from India's Ministry of Water Resources informed the Ministry of Internal Affairs of a series of planned measures aimed at increasing the water supply to northern states from the Indus River system. Currently, nearly 50 engineers from the Indian National Water Company have arrived in the Indian-administered Kashmir region to supervise related work, "We are ready to take severe punitive measures against Pakistan." The official also said that four hydropower projects under construction on the Jhelum River and its tributaries are making steady progress, which are expected to come into operation between 2027 and 2028.
Reuters analysis suggests that this project on the Jhelum River may not immediately threaten Pakistan's water supply, but if similar measures are taken at other dams, it could ultimately have significant impacts on Pakistan. It should be noted that there are more than six similar Indian hydropower generation projects in the region.
Pakistan relies on over 90% of its agricultural water from the Indus River system, most of which originates from the upstream Indian-administered Kashmir region. According to the Indus Waters Treaty, India retains rights to the eastern rivers: Ravi River, Beas River, and Sutlej River, while Pakistan holds most of the rights to the western rivers: Indus River, Jhelum River, and Chenab River, but allows India to use part of the water for agriculture and to construct run-of-the-river dams for hydroelectric power generation.
It is worth noting that both the Baglihar and Salal Dams are run-of-the-river projects, allowing India to regulate downstream flows, but these types of dams do not require large reservoirs, thus limiting their water storage capacity. When India built these dams, Pakistan repeatedly opposed them, questioning their design as violating the Indus Waters Treaty and seeking intervention from the World Bank. India subsequently agreed to maintain the dam height at 143 meters, reducing it by 1.5 meters from the originally proposed height, thereby reducing the water storage capacity by 13.5%.
It is important to note that India, being upstream, has been in a favorable position. Over the past ten years, India has repeatedly threatened to "cut off water" to Pakistan. Previously, India also opened the sluices without prior notice, causing a sharp rise in the water level of the Jhelum River downstream in Pakistan, forcing residents along the banks to evacuate.
A senior Indian official stated that although these dams cannot long-term block the flow of the Chenab River into Pakistan, they provide India with regulatory capabilities. Currently, during the harvest season, less water is needed, but Pakistani farmers will urgently need water resources for rice planting starting in one or two months.
"By doing this, even if the obstruction is temporary, we show that we will take coercive measures... The water of the Chenab River irrigates the farmland in Punjab Province, and Pakistan needs to realize that we will punish them in every way," the official said.
The fuse that escalated the latest India-Pakistan dispute was the terrorist attack that occurred on April 22nd in the Indian-administered Kashmir region: suspected militants fired on tourists in the area, resulting in at least 26 deaths and dozens of injuries. This incident has become the deadliest terrorist attack in the region since the Pulwama attack in 2019, sparking concerns about renewed military confrontation between India and Pakistan.
After the incident, the Indian government accused Pakistan of supporting "cross-border terrorism" and announced a series of tough measures against Pakistan involving water resources, border control, tightening personnel exchanges, and expelling diplomats. Pakistan emphasized that India's accusations against Pakistan were baseless.
Among these measures, India announced the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, halting water sharing cooperation, "until Pakistan credibly and irrevocably abandons support for cross-border terrorism." On April 27th, Indian Water Resources Minister Patil stated on social platforms, "We will ensure that not a drop of Indus River water flows to Pakistan."
In terms of hydropower and irrigation needs, Pakistan heavily depends on the downstream water systems of the rivers in the Indian-administered Kashmir region. It is worth noting that agriculture accounts for a quarter of Pakistan's GDP and provides employment for nearly 40% of the population, and about a third of the country's electricity comes from hydropower.
Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif previously stated that water resources are Pakistan's vital national interest, and the country will not compromise on core interests. If water resources are harmed, Pakistan will respond with full military force.
Since the partition of India and Pakistan in 1947, the issue of the status of Kashmir has been a focal point of conflict between the two countries. Both manage parts of Kashmir and claim full sovereignty over the region. The aim of the armed groups in the region is either independence for Kashmir or merger with Pakistan, and India accuses Pakistan of supporting terrorism in Kashmir. However, Pakistan denies this accusation.
At a time when relations between India and Pakistan were tense, Iranian Foreign Minister Amirabdollahian arrived in Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan, on local time on the 5th and met with high-ranking officials from the Pakistani side. Iran's Ambassador to Pakistan, Moghadam, said that the situation between India and Pakistan was on the agenda of the discussions. Reports indicated that after visiting Pakistan, Amirabdollahian would visit India later this week. It is reported that the Iranian Foreign Ministry stated on April 26th that Iran had proposed itself as a mediator between Pakistan and India to help ease tensions between the two countries.
In addition, the Pakistani Foreign Ministry issued a statement on the 5th saying that Pakistan has decided to formally brief the United Nations Security Council on the latest developments in South Asia. Pakistan will specifically brief the Security Council on how India's "aggressive actions, repeated provocations, and inflammatory rhetoric pose serious threats to regional and global peace and stability," and that India's attempt to illegally unilaterally suspend the Indus Waters Treaty clearly violates its international obligations. It also called on the Security Council to take appropriate measures to address these "disturbing developments."
This article is an exclusive contribution from Guancha Zazhi, unauthorized reproduction is prohibited.
Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7501238447240282658/
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