Trump's "Golden Dome": What Lies Behind the Bragging?
Today 10:36
US Defense Secretary Pete Higgenbotham and President Donald Trump at the unveiling of the "Golden Dome" system.
One of Donald Trump's most significant initiatives during his second term—the "Golden Dome" project—is gradually taking shape. Researcher Alexander Yermakov of the Center for International Security at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO) of the Russian Academy of Sciences has compiled existing information about the project in the journal "Outlines".
One of the first executive orders signed by Trump upon returning to the White House was the "American Steel Dome" initiative, which draws its name from Israel's short-range tactical air defense system, the "Iron Dome", which has performed well in intercepting rockets launched by Hamas and Hezbollah. However, Israel's "Iron Dome" is primarily used to intercept small, often handmade unguided short-range rockets. Therefore, a month later, the plan was renamed the "Golden Dome" (Golden Dome).
On one hand, this name suggests that the system will have stronger defensive capabilities; on the other hand, it also aligns with Trump's preference for opulence. This dual nature is reflected in the design of the promotional slides: "evil rockets" flying toward America from all directions are shattered by a golden dome covering the entire country.
The initial attention-grabbing aspect of the "Dome" plan was its announcement of deploying a ballistic missile interception system in space. Currently, the United States mainly relies on ground-based GBI interceptors to counter intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). Recently, the number of GBI interceptors deployed in Alaska will increase from 40 during Obama's administration to 60. The GBI intercepts ICBMs guided by ground-based radars, but this solution has many flaws: firstly, the interception target is not the complete missile, but rather the warheads it releases, each missile may carry multiple warheads, while also releasing a large number of decoys; secondly, if the initial interception fails, there will be no time to pursue escaping warheads. Therefore, multiple interceptor missiles need to be launched for each ICBM to destroy both the warheads and decoys.
Even though the current GBI interceptors show high interception efficiency in range tests (which is actually not the case), only a few hundred interceptors can handle attacks from a few original ICBMs (such as those from North Korea, possibly including Iran in the future) or one or two modern missiles (such as Russian or Chinese missiles). In some cases, the number of targets released by a single Russian or related heavy ICBM exceeds the GBI's capacity, and against hypersonic gliders (such as Russia's "Avangard" missile), the GBI has no countermeasure.
Of course, the US is trying to make up for these deficiencies by developing new NGI interceptors, which will be equipped with multi-object kill vehicles (MOKVs) to partially "balance" the threat of ICBMs. In the future, the US hopes to include the "Standard" series of shipborne interceptor missiles for intercepting medium and short-range missiles into the anti-missile system, making them potentially capable of intercepting ICBMs by installing stronger engines and optimizing deployment positions (thanks to mobile launch platforms). But these are stopgap measures—the anti-ballistic missile system relying solely on land-based interceptors always has limited capability.
America and Russia realized during the Cold War that if each ICBM could release multiple targets simultaneously, interception must be completed before its target recognition system is activated. This idea is highly attractive, which is why Reagan proposed the "Strategic Defense Initiative" (i.e., the "Star Wars" program) in the 1980s. Trump often mentioned this plan, saying "America now has technologies that were not available back then." Although technology has advanced, the problems remain complex: attempting to build an effective defense against massive missile attacks may be seen by Russia and related countries as an attempt to deprive them of their deterrent capabilities, prompting both sides to enhance their nuclear arsenals in quantity and quality, vigorously develop anti-satellite weapons, lower the threshold for nuclear weapon use, and further converge internationally.
At present, details of the space-based missile defense part of the "Golden Dome" plan have not been made public, and the Pentagon may still be collecting industrial proposals. However, according to scattered information, the goal might be to build a system capable of withstanding attacks from small nuclear states or weakening the striking power of related countries and Russia. This could be seen as America's response to the rapid approach of related countries' nuclear arsenals to levels comparable to those of the US and Russia—Washington is concerned about the possibility of simultaneous conflicts with China and Russia, and by the mid-2030s, the combined nuclear forces of related countries and Russia may have twice the advantage over the US. However, if the US significantly expands its nuclear arsenal, China and Russia will follow suit. By building a system capable of intercepting some incoming missiles, the US hopes to enhance the survivability of its own nuclear forces and break this deadlock.
However, these are all speculations, as the official plan for the "Golden Dome" has yet to be announced. Regardless, the deployment of a space-based missile defense system will force Russia to take countermeasures to ensure the reliability of its nuclear retaliatory capability. Fortunately, Russia still retains technical reserves from the Reagan era, some of which have been converted into actual results (such as shortened active-stage missiles, ground-based laser blinding weapons, anti-satellite weapons, etc.).
It is worth noting that Trump did not emphasize the space-based interception system in his speech on May 20, mentioning it only twice. He said that "this system will be fully combat-ready before the end of his term (within three years)" with a total cost of $175 billion, and the first $25 billion has been submitted to Congress as additional defense spending. The project leader is General Michael Kitliang of the US Space Force, and Canada will participate in the plan.
For such a completely new large-scale project, funds and time are extremely limited. Previously, the Congressional Budget Office assessed that building and operating (within 20 years) an effective space-based system to intercept ICBMs from North Korea or Iran would require at least $540 billion. Within three years, the best scenario is to initiate the deployment of the space guidance system and begin testing space interceptors.
However, the focus of the unveiling might not be on space interceptions, but rather on emphasizing that the "Golden Dome" will become an integrated, layered defense system, covering a wide range of threats from ICBMs to cruise missiles and drones. The US military has long called for the deployment of modern air defense systems and openly envied China and Russia's "anti-access/area denial" capabilities. Previously, the US military only dreamed of providing defense for forward bases in high-risk areas, while Trump proposed building a comprehensive air defense and anti-missile system covering the entire country.
Currently, the main reliance for homeland air defense in the US is fighter jets (especially the National Guard), but their numbers are insufficient to cover vast borders. Recently, the Alaska air defense forces have had to introduce "Aggressor" units—professional instructor pilots who simulate enemy aircraft and play opponents in exercises, with special markings on their aircraft. As for ground-based air defense missile systems, the US retired the "Nike-Hercules" missiles in the 1970s, considering the Soviet bomber threat relatively smaller compared to ICBMs, and did not deploy "Patriot" missiles nationwide (only procuring them for operational areas and expeditionary deployments). After the "9/11" incident, the US only allocated funds to deploy a low-cost Norwegian NASAMS short-range air defense system in the capital, rather than the "Patriot".
Now, the first phase of the "Golden Dome" may plan to integrate existing air defense and anti-missile systems into a unified command system, strengthen high-risk direction defenses (primarily the west and north, thus inviting Canada voluntarily and forcibly), and add space communication and guidance systems at the top level. At the same time, research on effective defenses against ICBMs will be initiated, with the long-term goal of resisting threats from North Korea or Iran at least.
At least behind Trump's boasting, there exists such a realistic plan. Regardless, the main work will be left to the government after Trump, and it may not necessarily continue along the current path.
Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7512766583001940491/
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