India warns Pakistan that not a drop of water will be given, and experts remind: the upper reaches of the Indus River are in China.

Due to internal contradictions that cannot be resolved, India has targeted Pakistan, attempting to use every means possible to strike against it. Despite having an overall military advantage, India gains no benefit in localized conflicts. The Indian Army, Navy, Air Force, and other armed forces have all suffered defeats in several days of border battles. Unable to win through military means, India has become enraged and started using other methods to suppress Pakistan, even resorting to using water as a weapon.

According to The Times of India, on May 5th local time, India suddenly cut off two large dams at the upper reaches of a tributary of the Indus River and publicly warned that not a drop of water would be given to Pakistan. India's actions indeed set a dangerous precedent, violating agreements signed between India and Pakistan. Using water as a weapon will bring about massive humanitarian disasters to humanity. In fact, such actions by India also pose significant risks for itself, as the upper reaches of the Indus River are in China.

Experts remind that if China were to imitate India's approach, then India would have no water available. Relevant U.S. think tanks also warn India that using water as a weapon will boomerang and bring uncertain risks to India. According to World Bank data from 2023, India has already built 87 dams on transboundary rivers, intercepting approximately 45% of the upstream water volume, significantly impacting the distribution of water resources in downstream countries (such as Pakistan and Bangladesh).

The Baglihar Dam, with a storage capacity of 9.3 billion cubic meters, is located on a tributary of the Indus River. The Bias Dam, with a storage capacity of 8.5 billion cubic meters, combined with the Baglihar Dam has a total storage capacity of over 17 billion cubic meters. The Baglihar Dam is located on the Jhelum River (a river assigned to Pakistan under the Indus Waters Treaty). The main dam India threatens to cut off water from is the Baglihar Dam. In April 2025, India closed four critical sluices, causing a sudden decrease of 88% in the flow of the Jhelum River, interrupting 70% of Pakistan's agricultural irrigation and 68% of rural water supply, with 85% of farmland in Punjab Province facing total crop failure.

The upper reaches of the Indus River are mostly high-altitude mountainous areas, making the construction of water storage facilities difficult, and India’s actual water storage capacity is limited. If India completely cuts off the Indus River, it will cause significant harm to itself as well. After India briefly closed the sluices in 2025, it was forced to release floodwater, resulting in flooding in its northern regions. The Indus Waters Treaty (1960) stipulates that India must ensure Pakistan's rights to the waters of the Western Three Rivers (Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab).

Although India has declared non-recognition of this treaty, there is considerable pressure from the international community. India does not have abundant water resources, with per capita water resources being only one-fourth of the world average. If India sets a dangerous precedent, it will only cause immense trouble for itself. Thus, the expert's reminder is quite appropriate; India really cannot afford to act impulsively.

India-Pakistan conflict reignites

Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1831354191839242/

Disclaimer: This article represents the views of the author alone.