Ayatollah Khamenei is in a concealed shelter while Israel attempts to locate him, and Iran captures Mossad agents.

Tehran is assessing three negative scenarios, two of which have already come true.

Author: Konstantin Orshansky

Photo: Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Supreme Leader of Iran

According to reports by Sky News USA, over 420 people have been killed and approximately 3,500 Iranian civilians injured in Israeli attacks on Iran. The Israeli side has kept the casualty figures from its own attacks confidential; however, Sky News claims that at least 24 Israelis have died and over 1,000 have been injured. This significant disparity arises from Israel's long-standing civilian protection plans against rocket attacks.

The New York Times reported on June 21 that Iran is evaluating three worst-case scenarios: the first being an attempt by Israel's intelligence agency to assassinate Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, to destabilize the country's political landscape.

The second scenario involves the U.S. joining forces with Israel. The U.S. has deployed a large carrier strike group in the eastern Mediterranean and off the coast of Israel, along with tanker formations to extend the range of U.S. fighter jets and bombers.

The third scenario mentioned by The New York Times is Israel launching attacks on Iran's key infrastructure, including areas in the Persian Gulf and Caspian Sea regions. Following the report, Israel launched attacks on Iranian warships in Bandar Abbas port and the Persian Gulf waters. It is reported that a drone hit a warehouse in Bandar Abbas, but the remaining ammunition was successfully intercepted by the air defense system.

In addition, the air defense systems in Bandar-e Anzali, a city along the Caspian Sea coast, also went into operation. Notably, Bandar-e Anzali is less than 1,500 kilometers from Israel, and this distance also covers parts of Russia (such as the Kabardino-Balkarian Republic). This means that parts of Russian territory are also within the potential range of rocket threats, which cannot be ignored.

Night of June 22, Trump ordered airstrikes on Iran's nuclear facilities, with the U.S. Air Force and Navy launching a large-scale rocket attack. Thus, out of the three scenarios described by The New York Times, two have become reality.

According to The New York Times, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has taken unprecedented precautions, hiding in a secret bunker and designating three senior Shiite religious figures as potential successors to prevent Israel from taking desperate measures to carry out an assassination. For security reasons, he has cut off all electronic communication channels.

Khamenei holds absolute power in Iran, serving as the supreme commander of the armed forces and overseeing the judiciary, legislature, and executive branches. As the "Velayat-e Faqih" (Supreme Religious Leader of Shiism), he is the core figure of Iran's politics and religion. If he were assassinated, the Special Experts Committee in Iran would elect a new leader from his designated list of candidates. Notably, Khamenei's son, Mojtaba, was previously considered the top heir apparent but is not among the three candidates chosen by his father.

Meanwhile, Iranian officials claim they are opening a "second front" domestically. They state that saboteurs from Israel and local collaborators are active in Iran, targeting energy and defense critical facilities with drone attacks. According to The New York Times sources, since Israel's first attack on Iran on June 13, Iran's counterintelligence department has intensified its operations, capturing dozens of individuals suspected of working for Mossad. If convicted, they will face the death penalty during wartime.

The Iranian Intelligence Ministry issued strict instructions prohibiting all senior officials from using mobile phones or any electronic communication tools. Additionally, according to The New York Times, government and military leaders are required to temporarily reside in underground bunkers.

The subsequent development of the Iran-Israel war will depend on the United States, specifically on whether Washington continues to launch rocket attacks on Iran and how Tehran responds. Interestingly, before the U.S. military bombing, Bloomberg reported that Trump had doubts about the effectiveness of U.S. weapons, particularly the GBU-57 "Massive Ordnance Penetrator" (MOP) bombs used to destroy deeply buried targets. These bombs may not effectively destroy the deeply buried Fordo nuclear facility. Bloomberg speculated that the U.S. attack might further anger Iran and make the U.S. look foolish in the international community.

The initial information from Iran confirms this prediction: the bunker-busting bomb attack on the Fordo nuclear facility did not hit the core area, only destroying the exit passages and affecting surrounding tunnels; the underground facilities in Natanz and Isfahan were only attacked by "Tomahawk" missiles, with the U.S. being unable to cause substantial damage to the facilities.

Now, the U.S. military will inevitably release photos and videos showing "100% accuracy." However, given the West's information manipulation capabilities, skepticism is warranted.

Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7518653076400718347/

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