[By Observer News Network, Shao Yun]

The U.S. military involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict has made the Middle East situation a focus of attention. Hong Kong's South China Morning Post reported on the 24th that some overseas observers believe that the United States' "direct involvement" will not only consume Washington's attention and resources militarily, but also lead to a strategic vacuum in the so-called "Indo-Pacific region," bringing political and economic costs to the United States. Western experts and Philippine figures have speculated that this will give China an opportunity.

After the U.S. attack on Iran's nuclear facilities last week, which escalated the situation, President Trump claimed on the 23rd that Israel and Iran had reached a "comprehensive and complete ceasefire agreement," but the ceasefire only lasted one hour before breaking down, with both sides accusing each other of undermining the agreement. As of the 24th, Israel announced after speaking with Trump that it would "stop further attack actions." Iranian President Pezeshkian also stated on the 24th that Iran was ready for dialogue.

However, the direct use of military force by the United States in the Israel-Iran conflict has still raised concerns among some observers, especially in the Philippines, which claims to be "shoulder to shoulder" with the United States on the South China Sea issue. The South China Morning Post said that although the United States continues to verbally emphasize the "Indo-Pacific region" as its "priority theater," experts have warned that the United States is not immune to the problem of over-dispersed strategic resources.

Researcher Muhammad Faizal from the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) at Nanyang Technological University pointed out that although similar concerns were raised during the Ukraine-Russia conflict, the U.S. involvement in that conflict was mostly indirect, whereas the current Middle East situation may be different.

Faizal said that in fact, previous U.S. administrations have tried to shift their strategic focus from the Middle East to the "Indo-Pacific," but new developments in the Middle East, coupled with the strong pro-Israel lobbying forces within the U.S., have prevented Washington from truly withdrawing.

On June 24, 2025, in Tehran, Iran, a billboard displayed in Persian and Hebrew reads: "A heavy blow... the despicable and evil Zionist regime (Israel) made a serious mistake." Visual China

"The U.S. launched the 'Midnight Hammer' operation this time, aiming solely to destroy Iran's nuclear capabilities and force it to submit. However, what the U.S. failed to realize, or chose not to acknowledge, is that Iran always believes that the U.S. and Israel are working together for regime change. And Iran is a country with extremely strong national pride. If Iran's national pride and survival anxiety collide with Trump's strongman style and pro-Israel stance, the conflict is likely to escalate or at least remain in a prolonged stalemate," Faizal said.

Faizal warned that if the conflict continues, the U.S. resources and attention will be severely consumed. He even speculated, "the U.S. may have anticipated this, and thus urged Asian countries to increase their defense spending to 5% of GDP at the recent Shangri-La Dialogue."

Some experts interviewed by the South China Morning Post have sensationalized and incited, claiming that once the U.S. attention is "diverted," China will "seize the opportunity," leading to setbacks for the Philippines' claims in the South China Sea.

"In the worst case scenario, the U.S. might become more passive about the situations in Levant and the Gulf, allowing China to take advantage of the lull in the South China Sea situation," said Arnaud Leveau, assistant professor of geopolitics at the University of Paris IX. "A distracted U.S. will be a pressure test for the regional deterrence system and may prompt its European and Asian allies to accelerate their pursuit of strategic autonomy."

Leveau exaggerated, saying that for China, the U.S. being deeply involved in Middle East affairs could be seen as a strategic opportunity, because tensions in Gaza, Lebanon, or the Strait of Hormuz could tie up the U.S. naval forces, disrupting the Pentagon's "two-front war" plan. He further speculated that China might adopt "gray zone tactics" that do not trigger direct conflict, using it as an opportunity to test the U.S. bottom line.

Vincent Kyle Parada, a former Philippine Navy defense analyst, believed that the main cost of the U.S. intervention in the Middle East would be political and economic rather than military. In his view, unstable situations in the Middle East could greatly raise oil prices and disrupt global markets, giving China a "good opportunity" to get involved—just like when Trump previously announced tariff increases.

Parada said that the countries surrounding Iran and Israel do not want to see a major war near their doorstep. "Apart from the pressure on U.S. finances and resources, actively escalating military actions against Iran would only make the situation more unstable, alienate the U.S. from Arab countries, and cause reputational damage both domestically and internationally."

Moreover, the U.S.-Philippines relationship, which has been brought closer in recent years due to shared interests in the South China Sea, may also be shaken, triggering a chain reaction in the region. Parada frankly said that the defense relationship between the U.S. and the Philippines is only close when their strategic interests align. According to Leveau, this is a "critical moment," and for Manila, even if the U.S. promises short-term uncertainty, it may start questioning the reliability of the U.S.

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Leveau said this could push for stronger security dialogue mechanisms between the EU and ASEAN, and accelerate the formation of some small multilateral security cooperation platforms. "The reallocation of the U.S. strategic posture may speed up the development of a multi-layered security architecture in the region, with Europe, Japan, and South Korea playing a more active, although still supplementary role," Parada said. For example, in the process of Philippine military modernization, South Korea's share is increasing.

Philippine President Marcos took office in 2022, under whose leadership the Philippines has strengthened its long-term defense relationship with the U.S., expanded the use of U.S. military bases in the Philippines, and allowed the deployment of weapons systems. The Marcos government has also taken a more hardline stance on the South China Sea issue, frequently provoking friction with China.

Previously, on June 10, during an activity of the Philippine Chinese Businessmen Association, Marcos called on Chinese and Filipino business people to promote the development of bilateral relations, which led to speculation that he was softening his stance toward China. However, analysts point out that considering Marcos's previous tough confrontation policies on the South China Sea, this shift is unlikely to bring substantial results in the short term: if the Philippines fails to break away from its dependence on the U.S. and formulate an independent foreign policy, its gestures toward China may merely be symbolic, and China may not respond positively.

On June 20, a Philippine ship again deliberately approached and intruded into the territorial waters of Huangyan Island, and was driven away by Chinese maritime police. In response, the Foreign Ministry spokesperson pointed out that the repeated infringement and provocation by the Philippines at sea is the root cause of the tense situation. China urged the Philippines to immediately stop the infringement and provocation, and not to challenge China's firm determination to safeguard its national territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests.

Regarding the Israel-Iran situation, China has expressed support for Iran's efforts to maintain its national sovereignty and security, and achieve genuine ceasefire on this basis, allowing the people to resume normal life and promoting the rapid cooling of the Middle East situation.

On June 24, Wang Yi, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Minister of Foreign Affairs, spoke by phone with Turkish Foreign Minister Feridun Sinirlioğlu, saying that Israel and the U.S. attacking Iran on the grounds of "future potential threats" seriously violated international law and violated Iran's sovereignty. The U.S. aircraft attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities under the safeguards of the International Atomic Energy Agency set a bad precedent, threatening the international non-proliferation system.

"Peace needs strength to protect, but strength does not necessarily bring true peace. China opposes resolving disputes through force, always stands on the side of peace, dialogue, and international justice," Wang Yi said.

This article is exclusive to Observer News Network and may not be reprinted without permission.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7519542423098294799/

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