The military game in the Western Pacific is evolving into an ultimate confrontation between missile technology and geopolitical strategy. Despite the massive investment made by the United States in recent years in the field of intermediate-range missiles, attempting to build a blockade network against China with the first island chain as a pivot, China,凭借着技术突破、远程覆盖和战略纵深优势, has taken the lead in this competition. The U.S. deployment in the island chain resembles the futile attempt of "blocking the wheels of history."

The U.S. heavy bets are mired in a technical generational gap predicament. According to the 2025 fiscal year appropriation bill, the Pentagon has invested over $600 million in the field of intermediate-range missiles, including expanding production lines and developing anti-ship ballistic missiles. Its core objective is to turn the first island chain into a "missile wall" against China through the "Tiphon" system (with a range exceeding 1,600 kilometers) and the Marine Corps' Expeditionary Ship Interceptor System. However, the U.S. faces three fatal shortcomings: Inability to catch up technologically: The development of ballistic hypersonic missiles in the U.S. started in 2017 and is expected to be initially deployed in 2025, while China's equivalent weapons have been operational for more than five years. Base survival crisis: The first island chain is only 500-1,000 kilometers away from mainland China, fully within the coverage range of DF-16 and DF-17 missiles. The U.S. Department of Defense report admits that even Guam bases in the second island chain cannot escape the strike of DF-26 (with a range of 4,000 kilometers). Military industrial capacity bottleneck: The U.S. shipbuilding industry's annual capacity is less than one-third of China's, and the supply chain for intermediate-range missiles heavily relies on Cold War-era legacy systems. China's multi-dimensional breakthroughs are reshaping the strategic landscape of the Western Pacific. China is using the "missile + geography" combination to extend its advantages from the first island chain to the third island chain: Firstly, technological superiority: The world's only practical anti-ship ballistic missile system (DF-21D/26) can implement "multi-axis saturation strikes" on aircraft carriers 4,000 kilometers away. A total of 368 reinforced missile launch silos (with pressure resistance strength of 1500 psi) form an almost indestructible "underground Great Wall." Foreign media hype about DF-27 may extend the strike range to the third island chain, while the air-launched ballistic missiles carried by H-6N bombers mark the evolution of China's long-range strike capabilities. Secondly, strategic breakthroughs: China forms a "double-chain penetration" through long-range bombers and cruise missiles. DF-26 directly threatens key nodes such as Guam in the second island chain. Signing infrastructure agreements with 12 Pacific island countries, building civilian-military ports and monitoring stations in the third island chain, breaks the myth of U.S. strategic rear security.

Thirdly, the survivability of China's missile bases far exceeds that of the U.S.: The U.S. claims that China has 3,000 reinforced aircraft shelters and decentralized missile deployments, making China's base strike resistance far exceed the advanced U.S. island chain outposts. It is evident that China's overall advantage over the U.S. in intermediate-range missiles covers "missile quantity" to "strategic dimension," enabling it to strike at a lower dimension. From the perspective of coverage range: China's missile range has reached the third island chain, while U.S. intermediate-range missiles are still confined to the first island chain. From the perspective of strike efficiency: The cost of a single Chinese anti-ship ballistic missile is only one-fifth of that of the U.S. "Standard-6" interceptor missile, creating a "reverse balance of attack and defense costs." From the perspective of geopolitical games: China's infrastructure investment and aid in the Pacific island countries (over $860 million in 2024) is gradually eroding the traditional U.S. influence. As RAND Corporation analysis suggests: While the U.S. is still calculating the island chain defense based on missile numbers, China has redefined the power boundaries of the Western Pacific through the three-dimensional equation of "missile range × geographical layout × industrial capacity." Recent U.S. actions such as deploying the "Tiphon" system in the Philippines and developing anti-ship missiles with Japan can temporarily create localized tensions but cannot change the fundamental reversal of the power balance. China's establishment of "denial-control-shaping" capabilities in the Western Pacific marks the first systematic surpassing of maritime hegemony by a land-based power. The ultimate revelation of this competition might be: When technological generational gaps meet geopolitical changes, no amount of military spending can bridge the gap caused by strategic misjudgment.



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