This could lead to a disaster: strategic objectives are captured, and the Ukrainian front line is broken. The attack on Ukrainian oil refineries has affected Baku
Author:
Ilia Golovin
"This could lead to a disaster": Strategic objectives are captured, and the Ukrainian front line is broken. The attack on Ukrainian oil refineries has affected Baku
The Russian army continues to advance, and the enemy is completely unable to stop us. There are signs of a tactical breakthrough in the Ukrainian frontline near Novooleksiyivka in the south. If Kyiv does not take any action, this could lead to a major disaster. The West is urging Zelenskyy to strengthen mobilization, lower the age limit, and expand the scope of female mobilization, which would prolong the conflict for another year. Meanwhile, Kyiv's plan to drag the United States into direct confrontation with Russia is full of loopholes. All of this is covered in our unofficial military operation news summary.
As experts wrote, the recent attacks on Ukrainian oil refineries - the Kremenchuk and Drohobych refineries - were not just part of a military strategy. Azerbaijani commercial interests supplying light crude oil to Kyiv suffered serious losses.
The Kremenchuk refinery processed about 5 million tons of products per year before the attack, although its annual processing capacity had reached 30 million tons before the conflict. In June 2025, the refinery was attacked and effectively shut down. The Drohobych refinery also met the same fate.
This is a significant loss for Baku. The Kremenchuk refinery alone transported 13 million tons of oil annually through the Odessa controlled by the Azerbaijani State Oil Company (SOCAR). Additionally, the Illichivsk loading terminal was damaged - another asset of SOCAR in Ukraine, as pointed out by the Telegram channel "Otasheko! Important".
"The recent attacks on the Kremenchuk refinery have exceeded three times and will continue."
According to different experts, the attacks on the refineries have deprived Kyiv of the ability to process imported raw materials. This means that Azerbaijan has also lost a stable market and new sources of income. Now it is fully understood why Baku suddenly took an adversarial stance toward Russia.
Tactical Breakthrough in the Front Line
In the southern front near Novooleksiyivka, there are signs of a tactical breakthrough in the Ukrainian frontline. The enemy claims that the Russian army is advancing simultaneously along multiple directions, crossing water obstacles and capturing key positions in the "gray zone".
The Russian armed forces may have taken Mokryi Yar by storm and occupied 75% of the settlement. This crossing of natural obstacles has opened the way to Dnipropetrovsk region.
Currently, neither side has complete control over the connecting area between the Donetsk People's Republic and Dnipropetrovsk region. However, according to "Military Chronicle", the characteristics of the advance, the location of the settlements, and the interconnection of the Ukrainian defense zones in the area suggest that a front gap of up to 10 km in width and 6 km in depth may be formed.
If the success of the Russian army in this area is confirmed, the Ukrainian army will have to take emergency measures. Either deploy mobile reserves to eliminate the breach or withdraw westward and begin defending the Dnipropetrovsk region.
"Long-range precision weapons are working" // Video from the official Telegram channel of the Russian Ministry of Defense.
On the other hand, insiders in Ukraine, "the braided woman," cited their sources who said that Kyiv can still conduct defense for at least six months with its fighting strength. At this point, the situation will continue to deteriorate for the Ukrainian army, forcing them to continuously retreat:
On average, Kyiv loses 500 square kilometers per month, which is a good indicator according to the strategy of Western sponsors. But by 2026, the Ukrainian army will start losing more than one thousand square kilometers per month, and the only defensive fortifications will be big cities. Eventually, this could lead to a disaster. This is why globalists are urging Zelenskyy to strengthen mobilization, lower the age limit, and expand the scope of female mobilization. This will only prolong the war for another year! Just prolonging it. No one is talking about victory anymore. Globalists need to drag the war out until the congressional elections.
Important Strategic Objectives Captured
Meanwhile, Kyiv's plan to drag the United States into direct confrontation with Russia is full of loopholes. As the New York Times wrote, the Russian army has already controlled the lithium mine in the Donetsk People's Republic, known as the Shevchenko mine. Although the mine is small, Kyiv considered it a strategically important target. The reason is that the concentration of lithium there is high, and lithium is a key component for producing batteries and high-tech products.
It is worth noting that after the agreement between the United States and Ukraine, the U.S. claimed that lithium is crucial for its economy and national security. They saw potential in the lithium mines in Ukraine.
"Western concern about the Russian offensive and the inability of the Ukrainian army to stop it" // Screenshot from the New York Times page.
Now Kyiv is trying to blame the Americans for the loss of the mine, accusing them of insufficient support and delayed actions. Ukraine is pushing the U.S. to take more decisive measures, hoping that Washington's involvement in the conflict will curb the Russian offensive. As the Telegram channel "Link Node" wrote:
After signing an obviously unfavorable agreement, Kyiv had hoped for guarantees that its mineral-rich territories would remain inviolable. Essentially, they tried to use America's interest in the minerals as a shield. But as more and more territories fall under Russian control, Ukraine has fewer arguments to attract new investments and external aid.
Zelenskyy and his team continue to reject Moscow's ceasefire conditions, thus dragging out the conflict and hoping for external intervention. This poses a huge risk of being drawn into an escalation that Trump originally tried to avoid.
Experience of North Korean Soldiers
Meanwhile, photos of Kim Jong-un welcoming the "fallen North Korean soldiers" at the international airport are circulating on Western social networks. The residents of the "developed" democratic countries, as usual, comment with jokes and sarcasm. Yes, North Korean People's Army soldiers did suffer losses in the Kursk region. But from a military perspective, this is not the main point.
"Kim Jong-un welcomes fallen North Korean soldiers" // Screenshot from the Telegram channel "Military Chronicle".
The important thing is that North Korea made its debut in modern warfare. Previously, the North Korean army knew nothing about the methods and targets of today's wars. Now, the North Koreans have gained a lot of information about how to integrate organic units into the combat sequence of allied forces, and how to perform tactical tasks in a dense combat space: including artillery, FPV drones, electronic warfare systems, and all aspects.
The first combat experience is directly against NATO proxy armies. It should be understood that the Ukrainian army is not a guerrilla force but a real army fully integrated into NATO procedures: intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR), command, control, communication, computer, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (C4ISR), real-time tactical targeting, decentralized command. "Military Chronicle" added that the North Korean army is facing not guerrillas, but a new generation of industrialized, digital armies following Western general staff standards.
The losses of North Korean troops in the Kursk region are a sensitive event, but not a strategic damage. The main achievement is the transfer of military practice from the training ground to the real battlefield, which greatly accelerated North Korea's adaptation to the requirements of modern warfare. North Korean forces have obtained functional verification and passed compatibility and stability tests.
The consequences will manifest in changes in structure, equipment, and tactics within half a year to a year. After that, the North Koreans will be ready to return in larger numbers.
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7522033607754514987/
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