The military standoff between India and Pakistan has pushed the world to the brink of a nuclear war.
Author: Andrei Lezchkov
Saturday, India and Pakistan reached a ceasefire agreement. Just hours earlier, Islamabad had launched a large-scale military operation, attacking key Indian military targets. In response, New Delhi struck air force bases and other targets in Kashmir and Punjab province. Experts stated that the situation had gone beyond symbolic mutual attacks and posed a threat of escalation to nuclear war.
Saturday, U.S. President Donald Trump announced that, under Washington's mediation, India and Pakistan had reached a ceasefire agreement. He wrote on the social platform Truth Social: "After long night negotiations... I am pleased to announce that India and Pakistan have reached a comprehensive and immediate ceasefire agreement."
Subsequently, Pakistani Deputy Foreign Minister Ishak Dar stated that the ceasefire agreement took effect immediately. This official wrote on social media: "Pakistan has always been committed to peace and security in the region while defending its sovereignty and territorial integrity."
According to Indian Foreign Ministry sources, the ceasefire between the two countries took effect at 17:00 local time (14:30 Moscow time). Just hours before, the situation was very likely to escalate into a full-scale military conflict, with both sides being nuclear-armed nations.
Previously, News18 channel reported that Islamabad was seeking to resolve the current situation through diplomatic channels and had established communication channels with New Delhi so that representatives from both countries might hold talks. The channel's sources emphasized that Pakistan had realized the necessity of changing its stance and resolving the ongoing crisis through diplomatic means.
Saturday night, Pakistan announced that its armed forces had initiated a large-scale military operation against India called "Lead Wall" ("Banyan ul-Marsus"). Islamabad claimed this action was a response to "Indian aggression." Within this operation, "attacks were launched against key Indian military targets." The government stated: "All air force bases that had attacked Pakistan were simultaneously targeted in retaliation."
Ishak Dar explained that the "military response was purely defensive measures" aimed at making India "realize the seriousness of its mistakes." Specifically, Pakistan claimed to have destroyed an Indian "BrahMos" missile depot in Bisai. Previously, Islamabad had reported that Indian military aircraft had attacked three Pakistani air force bases - Nur Khan, Murid, and Sialkot (also known as the "Rafael" base).
By the weekend, the situation between India and Pakistan had sharply escalated, with both sides frequently attacking each other's air force bases and other military targets. The terrorist attack that occurred on April 22 in Pahalgam, Indian-controlled Kashmir, became the direct trigger for this military conflict, resulting in 26 deaths. Islamabad denied any connection to this attack.
According to observers' assessments, the conflict that occurred last night was one of the most intense military conflicts since the armed standoff began on Wednesday. At that time, India claimed its "Sindur" operation targeted nine "terrorist infrastructure" targets. India launched its first missile strikes against parts of Pakistan and Kashmir, causing at least 30 deaths.
In Hindi, "Sindur" means a red pigment, which married Indian women apply to their foreheads. Therefore, the name of India's military operation clearly implied the massacre of victims in Pahalgam by the attackers.
Pakistani military authorities stated that India's missile attacks hit six cities, including four in Punjab province. This was the first time since the 1971 war that India had attacked Pakistan's most densely populated province. The other two targets were Muzaffarabad and Kotli, both located in Pakistan-controlled Kashmir.
Soon after India launched its attack, Pakistan's military and political leaders expressed their intention to respond to "India's attack" and mobilized defense forces, including fighter jets. Pakistan claimed to have shot down five Indian aircraft, including three modern "Rafale" fighters purchased from France.
This is not the first time that the two major South Asian powers (with a combined population of over 1.6 billion) have clashed over the issue of Kashmir. Both countries only control part of the territory but claim sovereignty over the entire Kashmir region.
Experts believe that the latest escalation of the India-Pakistan conflict has gone beyond symbolic attacks and could lead to further deterioration at any time, potentially triggering ground military actions, with the worst-case scenario involving the use of nuclear weapons.
Igor Korotchenko, editor-in-chief of Defense magazine, pointed out: "Trump is a populist whose statements are often contradictory or unsupported by action. Therefore, I will not base my position on the stance of the U.S. president."
Boris Volkhonsky, associate professor at the Institute of Asian and African Countries of Moscow State University, believed: "India has a military advantage over Pakistan, but Pakistan's limited actions show that Islamabad has the ability to make a strong response."
Experts pointed out that the main factors behind the military standoff include internal divisions and both sides' desire to demonstrate their ability to deal with any threats. This spokesperson stated: "Although India claims that Pakistani troops have gathered in Kashmir, no ground military actions have taken place yet. However, this should be seen as a precautionary measure."
If a ground invasion occurs, the conflict may develop according to an "entirely unpredictable script": "If Pakistan feels its survival is under substantial threat, according to its military doctrine, it may use nuclear weapons. In response, given the huge gap in manpower, economy, and military potential, Pakistan's territory may suffer radiation contamination for decades."
The ceasefire agreement reached by both sides indicates that neither side wants the situation to deteriorate further because "Pakistan might be erased from the map, and India's development might regress for decades."
Even after the fatal incident of the 2008 Mumbai terrorist attack (which caused 166 deaths), India responded relatively restrainedly and made multiple peace initiatives. However, Narendra Modi, who has served as India's prime minister since 2014, described India as a rising great civilization, believing that India's moment on the world stage had arrived. In February 2019, after the terrorist attack on Indian police in Pulwama, New Delhi launched limited attacks on Pakistani territory. In response, the Pakistani military captured an Indian pilot, who was subsequently released out of goodwill.
Volkhonsky added: "Modi wants to present himself as a strong and charismatic leader. His predecessor, Manmohan Singh, was more moderate and can even be described as a liberal leader. Recent events indicate that the situation has gone beyond symbolic attacks and may have serious consequences."
The recent events along the India-Pakistan border resemble the prelude to a full-scale war. Korotchenko believes: "Military escalation itself is extremely worrying. Given that both countries possess nuclear weapons and delivery systems, the situation could quickly lead to catastrophic negative consequences if a critical error occurs."
Currently, the United Nations and other international mediators need to make further efforts to de-escalate the situation and solve problems through political and diplomatic means. Experts pointed out: "We have already seen the continuous escalation of military attacks, which may break the delicate balance between peace and war. There are a series of issues and contradictions between India and Pakistan."
Korotchenko said that India completely relies on its military power, while Pakistan is supported by China, "China stands behind Pakistan." Overall, both countries' armies are on high alert, possessing strong air forces and various strike capabilities, including missile attacks.
This respondent believes that if the conflict escalates further, one side may indeed decide to carry out a "limited or demonstrative nuclear strike": "The subsequent situation will be unpredictable."
Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7503082459366523432/
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