【Wen/Observer Net Columnist Chen Hongbin】
From June 24 to 25, the NATO summit was held in The Hague, Netherlands. But just a day before the summit began, the Japanese government announced that Prime Minister Ishiba Shoichi had canceled his plan to attend this summit.
Although the Japanese side had previously given the reason of the tense situation in the Middle East, and that Prime Minister Ishiba was currently conducting coordination, there were no signs of this. The real issue for Ishiba's no-show was the defense budget.
According to a report by the Financial Times on June 21, the US government recently asked Japan to increase its defense spending to 3.5% of GDP, while only three months ago it had been asking to raise it to 3%, and previously there were even reports that the Pentagon had even demanded an extremely high level of 5%. How long will this go on?
The Japanese government was extremely dissatisfied with this demand. To have defense spending account for 3.5% of GDP is financially unfeasible for Japan at present, and Ishiba also stated that he could not accept the requirement to determine specific ratios in advance. For this reason, Japan postponed the bilateral "2+2 talks" scheduled for July 1 in Washington. This unusual measure has fully reflected Japan's long-standing strong dissatisfaction with the United States in this area.
It is well known that the previous Abe Shinzo government decided in late 2022 to significantly expand defense spending, aiming to make this spending reach 2% of GDP by 2027. Previously, Japan had always kept this ratio within 1%, which was already the maximum effort Japan could make.
After years of financial difficulties, to ensure the realization of this goal, Japan will face a fiscal gap of up to 4 trillion yen by the 2027 fiscal year. Therefore, the Japanese government can only try its best to raise funds, including increasing income tax. Now this goal is still being achieved through difficult efforts, and the United States is again making excessive demands, which clearly exceeds Japan's capacity.
Moreover, how much a country's defense expenditure should be should naturally be decided by the government of that country, and other countries should not interfere. Even if the United States bears the responsibility of protecting Japan, this is obviously overstepping. Ishiba Prime Minister clearly stated earlier this year that the decision on Japan's defense spending level can only be made by the Japanese government. This statement clearly expresses his dissatisfaction with the White House.
Since his first term, Trump has repeatedly expressed dissatisfaction with the current state of US-Japan security cooperation, accusing the US-Japan Security Treaty as a one-sided protection treaty, where the US military bears the obligation to protect Japan, but Japan does not bear any obligation to protect the US military, which is obviously unfair. Since returning to the White House this year, Trump has repeated his complaints, showing strong dissatisfaction. On March 6 this year, he told American media: "We must protect Japan according to the treaty, but Japan doesn't need to protect the US, and I don't know who signed this treaty!" In addition, Trump also accused Japan of gaining great benefits through similar deals with the US.
As soon as he took office in his first term, in February 2017, he forced Japan to sign a large order to purchase US arms during a meeting with then-Prime Minister安倍晋三, including 147 F-35 fighter jets and two land-based Aegis defense systems. This temporarily eased Trump's dissatisfaction. Moreover, the price of the land-based Aegis system, originally 120 billion yen per set, soared to 392 billion yen almost immediately, which was a clear price hike. However, since the supplier of such equipment is the only one, Japan had no choice but to accept it.
To avoid trouble, the then Abe government had to remain silent. Therefore, in the 2019 fiscal year, Japan's expenditure on US equipment reached 701.3 billion yen. After the Abe administration decided to significantly increase defense spending, in 2023, this expenditure soared to 1.4768 trillion yen.
Because Trump's complaints were not expressed in high-level talks between the two countries, but only in his statements to American media, the Japanese government used to ignore them. Now, the US government's demand for a significant increase in Japan's defense spending is simply unrealistic, so Japan no longer ignores it. Postponing the "2+2 talks" is a clear signal from Japan to the US, indicating that although the two countries are allies, the US cannot force Japan to do anything.
From Japan's perspective, there is no so-called "unfairness" in the Japan-US security cooperation. Indeed, the US bears the obligation to protect Japan, but in return, Japan provides many bases for the US, which is crucial for the US to maintain its military presence in the Asia-Pacific and is irreplaceable. Trump's complaints are clearly out of line.
Since World War II, the US military has been stationed in Japan for more than half a century. Japan has a very small territory, with few plains due to its mountainous terrain. Despite this, there are 81 US military bases exclusively used by the US military, and 130 bases shared with the Self-Defense Forces. All US military bases are like "American enclaves," and other Japanese citizens cannot enter except for staff employed by the base. Over the years, US military personnel have committed various crimes, and Japanese law has been completely powerless against them, leading to widespread resentment among the Japanese people. However, to maintain bilateral relations, the Japanese government has only been able to turn a blind eye.
The source of the US military base in Okinawa, Japan: Asahi Shimbun
In addition, the noise disturbances caused by frequent takeoffs and landings of fighter jets at air force bases also enraged local residents. Although the local government and the US military signed an agreement stipulating that no takeoffs or landings should occur at night or early morning, the US military ignored it completely, forcing local residents to sue the US military base. The court ruled that both the US military and the local government should pay half of the compensation, but the US military refused to pay a penny, and the Japanese government was helpless. In addition, the sewage discharged arbitrarily by the base has polluted the groundwater, causing local governments and residents near the base to be fed up.
The US military has bases in many countries and has long been stationed there. According to a 2004 Pentagon statistical data, the German government covered 32.6% of the costs of the US military stationed there, the South Korean government covered 40% of the costs of the US military stationed in South Korea, while the Japanese government paid as much as 74.5% of the costs of the US military stationed in Japan. From the Japanese government's perspective, Japan has already been so accommodating; what else does the US have to complain about?
Currently, the Japanese government provides approximately 800 billion yen annually for the US military bases, covering the salaries of staff working at the US military bases and the water and electricity expenses of the barracks outside the bases. So much so that the costs related to the relocation of the US Marines stationed in Okinawa are also borne by Japan. There is even a special term in Japanese to express the financial expenditures for the US military, called "considerate budget" (also translated as "care budget"), which refers to the welfare expenses of the US military personnel stationed in Japan, all of which show that the US military's dependence on Japan's finances is constantly increasing.
In fact, the costs of stationing in Japan are significantly lower for the US military than those in the US. Even for entertainment purposes, the toll fees for vehicles passing through highway toll stations should be paid by the Japanese government. The US military gave the excuse that entertainment is also part of the US military's protection of Japan! Therefore, from the perspective of the Japanese people, Japan is the "paradise" for US military personnel. Additionally, Japan provides maintenance and repair services for US fighter jets and ships, and the efficiency and quality of these services are far superior to those in the US, which are all contributions made by Japan to the US.
The Japanese government is even confused about the number of US military personnel stationed at the bases because, according to the Japan-US Status of Forces Agreement, US military personnel entering Japan do not need to go through immigration checks, let alone quarantine. During the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020, the US domestic epidemic remained severe, and many American tourists were refused entry to Japan, but US military personnel stationed at the bases did not need to undergo nucleic acid testing and could freely enter and exit, leading to a group infection at the Okinawa base.
In 1995, three US soldiers stationed in Okinawa raped a local girl, and the Okinawa police requested the US military to hand over the suspects for punishment. However, the US military refused outright, citing the Status of Forces Agreement between the two sides. This led to outrage among the Okinawa residents, who sent representatives to Tokyo to strongly demand amendments to the extremely unequal Status of Forces Agreement, but the Japanese government was powerless and eventually nothing was done.
Helpless, the angry Okinawa local government sent a delegation to Germany and Italy to learn how those countries handle relations with US military personnel. Both countries informed the Okinawa delegation that they dealt with the criminal acts of US military personnel according to their own laws, and the police had the right to question suspects in US military bases. This left Tokyo caught between the local residents and the US military. Japan has been so tolerant, why is Washington still complaining endlessly?
The Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs has a section on its website titled "FAQ on the Japan-US Status of Forces Agreement." Regarding the question "Should US military personnel stationed in Japan abide by Japanese laws," the previous answer was: "In international law, it is generally believed that compliance with the laws of the host country and being subject to trial is exempt." After the Okinawa local government conducted relevant investigations in Germany and Italy, this FAQ only deleted the word "generally," in an attempt to slightly ease the strong dissatisfaction of the Okinawa residents.
On November 23, 2023, in Okinawa Prefecture, Japan, demonstrators shouted slogans at a rally. Locals in Okinawa held a large anti-war peace rally in Naha, the prefectural capital, strongly opposing the Japanese government and the US military's attempt to turn Okinawa into a military stronghold, and calling for a peaceful path through dialogue.
In fact, even before Trump took office, the former Prime Minister Abe Shinzo, who advocated "moving beyond the post-war system," had already started to change the status quo where Japan could not provide protection obligations to the US military. The 2015 "Security Law" that relaxed the restrictions on Japan's collective self-defense rights was a major step in this direction. However, to completely change the status quo, it would require major surgery, i.e., amending the Constitution. Because the Constitution explicitly states that Japan renounces war and therefore does not possess the power to wage war. At that time, Abe Shinzo even arrogantly set the year 2020 for the amendment of the Constitution.
However, circumstances are stronger than people. For years, the Liberal Democratic Party has worked tirelessly to push for constitutional amendments, but it has never made progress. Therefore, Abe Shinzo had to leave quietly in 2020 and was assassinated less than two years later. This has made the constitutional amendment even more distant. As long as the Constitution is not amended, it is impossible to require Japan to provide protection for the US military, which is futile regardless of how much pressure Trump exerts.
Currently, Japan has 200 F-15 fighter jets, and plans to increase the F-35 to 147 (more than half of which have completed the purchase procedures), while the US military stationed in Japan only has dozens of fighter jets, and its naval vessels are only half of the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force. The number of Japan Self-Defense Forces personnel is several times that of the US military stationed in Japan. Therefore, from Japan's perspective, in maintaining peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region, Japan's contribution is no less than that of the US.
In the meeting with Trump in February this year, Prime Minister Ishiba clearly informed him that after achieving a defense spending ratio of 2% of GDP by 2027, Japan would continue to strive to increase defense spending. However, this topic has not been discussed domestically in Japan, and Ishiba's commitment has sparked widespread doubts.
Evidently, Trump is not unaware that Japan is significantly increasing its defense spending. From Japan's perspective, his repeated complaints are merely hoping that Japan will further increase its purchases of US military equipment. In fact, regardless of who is in charge of the US and Japan, the status of "US dominance and Japanese subordination" in the Japan-US relationship will not change. Accepting another country's military presence, you want to be too tough? It's like trying to negotiate with a tiger!
In reality, when the US says that Japan is its "most important ally," it's not really the case. For example, Japan has long wanted to introduce the F-22 fighter jet, but the US has blocked it under the pretense of legal "export bans," while the US has exported the F-22 to Israel. Japan is left with no words to say.
In fact, it is natural for the US to export the most advanced equipment to Israel, as Israel is the US's closest "friend." The Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs once conducted a survey, and in a certain year, the consistency between Japan and the US in the UN vote was only 44%, while Israel reached 90%. Why would the US prohibit the export of F-22 to Israel?
Recent events have shown even more clearly. In the Israel-Palestine conflict and the recent Iran-Israel conflict, the US not only unreservedly supports Israel but also directly participates in bombing Iran's nuclear facilities. For the anti-Israel tendencies that have appeared on some university campuses, the US has ruthlessly suppressed them, and the relationship between the two sides is so close that it is beyond description. The US clearly treats Israel differently, and Japan has no words to say.
On the afternoon of June 19, 2025, Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shoichi gave an interview at the prime minister's residence. Kyodo News
Additionally, the maintenance and repair of US military fighter jets in Japan involve core technologies that are strictly prohibited for Japanese technicians to approach. Japan hopes to cooperate with the US to develop the next-generation fighter jet, but the US has repeatedly refused with various excuses, forcing Japan to jointly develop it with the UK and Italy, resulting in the next-generation fighter jet being delayed indefinitely. Now Japan is not only unable to independently develop the next-generation fighter jet, but even the regional aircraft it has been developing for years has ended in failure.
In fact, the US has a very clear sense of vigilance towards Japan. The two main functions of the US military bases in Japan are not only to maintain the US global strategy, but also to prevent the resurgence of Japanese militarism. However, in recent years, due to considerations of maintaining bilateral relations, the US no longer emphasizes this function. More than 80 years ago, the US and Japan fought fiercely in the Pacific, and the US, in its 200-year history, has openly attacked its territory only once, which is Japan. How can the US erase all this? Americans' minds are not empty, they will never completely forget this.
However, the US's actions of pressuring Japan in bilateral security cooperation have already made Japan very frustrated. Now, Trump repeatedly complains about "unfairness," and Japan's response is clear: the US is the one that is unfair!
The Japan-US Security Treaty has been in place for over six decades, and the US military has been stationed in Japan for over 80 years. The Japanese people have long been fed up with the obvious inequality in the bilateral relationship, and this situation cannot last forever. One opinion in Japan has long been that the alliance relationship with the US should be adjusted to a treaty relationship similar to the Sino-Japanese Peace and Friendship Treaty. Trump, relying on Japan's dependence on the US, keeps raising the stakes, and this will eventually lead to a revolt by the Japanese people. Trump's extreme pressure on Japan is undoubtedly accelerating this process.
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