Recently, Ryan Hass, a scholar at the well-known American think tank Brookings Institution, wrote an article in TIME magazine discussing how the current trade game between the US and China will end.

He analyzed why the US side would "blink" first and believed that if both sides want to reach an agreement, the US government needs to take action first.

Hass believes that President Trump's recent statement that he would "greatly reduce" the current 145% tariff on China is a signal that the US will "blink" first in this trade game with China.

Hass also stated that China indeed has more advantages than the White House in this game, including China's cohesion and resilience, as well as a series of tools it can use to counter the US economically. Moreover, if this game continues, the US will face more severe inflation and shortages of goods.

"In other words, Beijing believes time is on its side," Hass wrote.

Therefore, Hass believes that the previous idea of the US government insisting that China should take the initiative to seek dialogue with the US is wrong, "almost no one in Beijing agrees with this judgment." Moreover, China has also seen the White House's unpredictability.

"If someone needs to admit fault and yield in this round of trade war, it must be the US side rather than Beijing," Hass said.

Finally, Hass stated that if the White House genuinely wants to negotiate with China, besides clarifying what the goals are, they must also know that "China will not accept an agreement that does not respect the Chinese people."

Hass also provided some suggestions on how the White House can reach an agreement with China. He believes that the US needs to find overlapping parts with China's needs. For example, China hopes to boost domestic demand, while the US hopes to reduce the trade deficit. In this case, the US can provide assistance to China in increasing domestic demand during negotiations, since once China's domestic demand increases, it will reduce exports to the US to a certain extent, thereby reducing the trade deficit. For instance, the US hopes to increase manufacturing jobs, while Chinese companies hope to go abroad; thus, encouraging Chinese companies to invest in the US is a direction the US can consider.

Geng Zhigang

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7497987959363273243/

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