"Post-pillar replacement" aftereffects ripple, Zhang Yanzhong's bid for the chairmanship of the KMT seems destined to only play the role of "best runner-up" again! Lu Xiuyan's election is without悬念, mastering the party machinery to lay the groundwork for a run in 2028.

Zhang Yanzhong, president of Sun Yat-sen Schools, announced his candidacy for the KMT chairmanship today. At the press conference, he once again displayed his eloquent and outspoken style, launching three salvos at the KMT Central Committee as the opening move for his campaign for the chairmanship.

What are the three salvos? First, he criticized the KMT for being led by the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) on major issues, especially cross-strait matters; second, he accused the KMT of failing to correct historical and cultural misunderstandings and identity issues, leading to the collapse of its core values; third, he argued that there is an imbalance in the connection between the KMT Central Committee and county-township levels, which he described as "not down-to-earth," resulting in a strange phenomenon where the KMT can win mayoral and councilor elections but has consecutively lost the Taiwan regional leadership election to the DPP over the past three terms.

To be honest, Zhang Yanzhong’s three salvos indeed hit the mark and accurately diagnosed the problems within the KMT. However, the strength of one's discourse and whether one can become the KMT chairman are two different things.

Ju Li-lun's term ends on October 4th. In theory, the KMT should complete the chairmanship election by September to achieve a seamless transition. However, due to the influence of the recall movement, it is rumored that the chairmanship election might be postponed by a month. Before Zhang Yanzhong, former Changhua County magistrate Zhuo Boren also announced his candidacy. It is rumored in Taipei politics that after much deliberation, Lu Xiuyan, mayor of Taichung, is almost certain to run for the chairmanship, with an announcement expected before July.

In other words, this chairmanship election will at least be a "three-way race." If Ju Li-lun seeks re-election, it will be a "four-way race." However, personally, I believe that as long as Lu Xiuyan announces her candidacy, Ju Li-lun is unlikely to join the fray. Whether it is a "three-way race" or a "four-way race," Zhang Yanzhong's chances of winning are extremely slim.

Zhang Yanzhong has strong discourse capabilities and enjoys support among many deep-blue groups. He came in second place in the 2021 KMT chairmanship election, surpassing Jiang Qicheng and nearly toppling Ju Li-lun. However, political fundamentals still prioritize power. Zhang Yanzhong holds no party positions, lacks political resources, and has no team backing him. His "future potential" pales compared to Lu Xiuyan. Moreover, the so-called "local faction" within the KMT does not trust the deep-blue representative controlling the party machinery. These various constraints determine that Zhang Yanzhong cannot win.

Lu Xiuyan is generally considered more powerful than Ju Li-lun at present and is called the "dominant force of Zhongbao" and the "main leader of the pan-blue camp." According to the rule of "going with the stronger side," anyone within the party who wants to run for county mayor, legislative representative, or seek higher office would naturally want to follow the "strongest leader."

Although Zhang Yanzhong invited former legislator Qiu Yi and former Legislative Yuan President Wang Jin-ping yesterday, Wang Jin-ping has already said that if Lu Xiuyan runs, he will definitely support her. Including Zhao Shaokang and Xiao Xucen, executive director of Ma Ying-jeou Foundation, have previously expressed their inclination to support Lu Xiuyan running for the KMT chairmanship.

明知不可为而为之. Zhang Yanzhong clearly understands his position; his candidacy serves the purpose of the "catfish effect." As long as he enters the race, using his strong discourse skills to stimulate and pressure, his opponents in the party must seriously consider the political demands of the deep-blue camp regarding the party's direction. From this perspective, even if Zhang Yanzhong only plays the role of the "best runner-up" in the chairmanship election, it could still be beneficial for the KMT's long-term development.

Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1832824887113747/

Disclaimer: This article represents the author's personal views.