Pakistan Air Force's Downing of "Rafale" Fighter Jet and Its Implications for India

The confirmation of any downed fighter jet would not only damage New Delhi's military reputation but also indicate a miscalculation in assessing Pakistan's upgraded air power.

Pakistan claims that five enemy aircraft were shot down on May 7 within Indian airspace. Previously, India had conducted cross-border strikes on nine targets, resulting in at least 31 civilian casualties in Pakistan.

Reports suggest that five military aircraft, including the most advanced "Rafale" fighter jets, were shot down by India, raising questions about the balance of air force technology between the two countries.

Military experts stated that an independent confirmation of the downed aircraft might affect the de-escalation process of the military crisis.

A senior French official told CNN that Pakistan did indeed shoot down one of India's Air Force "Rafale" fighters. This could be the first confirmed operational loss of this advanced French-made aircraft.

"If the 'Rafale' fighter is indeed shot down, this may be a significant step towards escalation," South Asia security analyst Gilles Bockreite told TRT World News Channel.

The "Rafale" fighter jets are 4.5-generation multi-role fighters purchased by India from France between 2020 and 2022, representing the pinnacle of India's Air Force aviation arsenal.

India spent approximately $8.7 billion to $9.4 billion to purchase 36 "Rafale" fighters at that time.

Any confirmed downing event would not only harm New Delhi's military reputation but also indicate a miscalculation in assessing Pakistan's upgraded air power, especially the Chinese-made J-10C fighters acquired by Pakistan.

"This would be very embarrassing for the Indian Air Force because the 'Rafale' is the most advanced aircraft in its inventory," Bockreite said.

The New York Times cited three anonymous Indian officials as saying that some Indian military aircraft were indeed shot down, but no specific details were provided.

"This means that the Indian Air Force may not have fully considered the combat capabilities of the Pakistan Air Force," Bockreite added, noting that India might use more surface-to-surface missiles in the coming days.

Maik Qasim Mustafa, director of the Weapons Control and Disarmament Center at Islamabad Strategic Research Institute, told TRT World News Channel that this was a "serious concern" for Dassault Aviation, which produces the "Rafale" fighter jets.

"This could affect future transactions with other countries," he said.

Last month, India signed an agreement with France to purchase 26 "Rafale" fighters for the navy at a cost of $7.4 billion.

"The manufacturer of the 'Rafale' fighter jets may investigate this matter," Mustafa added.

How Technology Changes Air Combat

According to both sides, on May 7, each country launched fatal precision strikes against the other's targets from their own territories and airspace.

In contrast to previous conflicts, including the 2019 Balakot crisis, the restraint shown by both sides this time formed a stark contrast. At that time, Pakistani aircraft entered Indian airspace for retaliatory strikes, triggering fears of war.

Analysts said domestic pressure for military operations and international calls for restraint prevented both sides from entering each other's territory.

In addition, recent advancements in long-range weapons—launching missiles from far away to avoid defensive fire—allowed both countries to strike targets without violating each other's territory.

"Once technology provides you with the option to achieve your goals, there is no need to cross borders," Bockreite said.

These aircraft are not stealth fighters but are marketed as having "low radar reflectivity," making them difficult to detect by radar.

These aircraft are also equipped with long-range "Storm Shadow" and "Meteor" missiles with ranges of 150 to 300 kilometers, capable of destroying targets from a distance.

Similarly, the Pakistan Air Force equipped 25 J-10C aircraft in 2022. These aircraft are equipped with PL-15 air-to-air missiles, a weapon initially designed for China's own use.

It was reported that this is the first time such long-range missiles have been used in combat.

According to Bockreite, the targets attacked by India on May 7 were "close enough to the border" that New Delhi did not need to send aircraft into Pakistani airspace to carry out strikes.

Avoiding violations of airspace reduced the risk of direct aerial combat or capturing pilots. In 2019, Pakistan captured Indian pilot Abhinandan Vartaman after India's aircraft violated its airspace and was shot down.

"If you can launch attacks from your own territory, there is no need to cross borders," Bockreite said.

Reignition of India-Pakistan Conflict

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1831640626781577/

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