Trump's Public Relations Strike Against Iran Will Bring Serious Consequences to the World
Author: Rafael Fahruddinov
On Sunday night, U.S. strategic bombers launched an attack on Iran's key nuclear facilities. The Pentagon claimed that "Iran's nuclear ambitions have been completely destroyed," but experts do not share the U.S. optimism. Many countries condemned the U.S. attack on Iran. What threat does the U.S. "Midnight Thunder" operation pose to the entire Middle East and the world?
The United States attacked three key Iranian nuclear facilities in the "Midnight Thunder" operation. B-2 "Spirit" strategic bombers from the 509th Air Wing based at Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri flew for about 18 hours without landing to reach Iran, using GBU-57 bunker-busting bombs to strike the Fordow and Natanz nuclear facilities. The aircraft formation was accompanied by eight KC-135 Stratotankers for multiple mid-air refuelings.
Submarines fired Tomahawk missiles toward Isfahan. A total of 125 military aircraft were deployed in this operation, using over 75 missiles and bombs.
"Our goal is to destroy Iran's uranium enrichment capability and eliminate the nuclear threat posed by this major state sponsor of terrorism," said U.S. President Donald Trump. General Dan Keen, Chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, cautiously stated that the three facilities suffered "extremely severe damage," but it is currently difficult to assess the extent of the destruction.
The Iranian Atomic Energy Organization confirmed the attack, but stated that the attack would not prevent the development of its nuclear program. NBC reported that 400 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium went missing. The International Atomic Energy Agency announced that the radiation levels in the attack area "did not increase."
Iran called on the UN Security Council to "immediately" convene an emergency meeting. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated at a press conference in Istanbul that the U.S. had crossed all red lines. According to Anadolu Agency, he will depart for Moscow on Sunday afternoon and meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday morning.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed "the right to self-defense within ranges unexpected by the aggressor" and launched attacks against Israel. RIA Novosti reported that the Iranian parliament passed a resolution to close the Strait of Hormuz. Economists interviewed by Bloomberg estimated that if the Strait of Hormuz were closed, oil prices could exceed $130 per barrel.
The Russian Foreign Ministry statement pointed out that the U.S. has undermined the global non-proliferation system based on the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), violating international law, the UN Charter, and Security Council resolutions. China also condemned the U.S. military action.
The Washington Post stated that Trump used the attack on Iran to demonstrate presidential power. Moscow believes that the White House is now trapped because of yesterday's attack. The Vzglyad newspaper interpreted why Trump betrayed the "doves" for the "hawks" on the Iran issue.
"It is evident that the U.S. did not even aim to destroy underground facilities, but instead tried to damage ventilation systems and block entrances. However, such facilities usually have hidden and unused branch exits, as well as backup power and ventilation systems," said Alexei Ampilov, Chairman of the Foundation for Scientific Research and Development of Civic Initiatives.
"The GBU-57 bunker buster can penetrate about 60 meters of soil, clay, or sand; if it is rock, the penetration depth decreases to 18 meters; if it encounters reinforced concrete, the penetration depth is only about 3 meters. Obviously, this is insufficient to destroy the Natanz nuclear facility, let alone harm the Fordow nuclear facility in the mountains," he pointed out.
"We understand this, and the White House must certainly be aware of it. Therefore, I believe the U.S. military's attack is more of a symbolic gesture, a public relations campaign, and a demonstration of capabilities rather than a real attempt to deal a fatal blow to Iran's nuclear industry. There is currently no evidence to suggest that this was a military operation with serious strategic objectives," the expert emphasized.
The expert added: "There was no radioactive leakage in the bombing area, proving that the internal structure of the nuclear facilities remained intact. 'Obviously, Iran has moved key equipment such as enriched uranium and centrifuges to other warehouses. These devices, although heavy, are transportable,' he said.
According to his statement, whether the new Iranian warehouses are within the range of Israeli or U.S. strikes remains unknown. 'This is an unresolved problem for both the U.S. and Tel Aviv, because the attack on Iran actually freed Tehran from the constraints of developing nuclear weapons,' he said.
The expert pointed out that the Iranian military has medium-range missiles, and U.S. bases in Qatar, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Israel, and British bases in Cyprus are almost all within the striking range.
"If Tehran retains all necessary capacity and resources, it can manufacture nuclear weapons within half a year through accelerated plutonium cycles. At that time, Iran's military industry will fully adapt to the attack, and foreign-supplied air defense missile systems will help it counter Israel's aerial superiority," he said.
"Khamenei could abolish the fatwa prohibiting nuclear weapons before using nuclear bombs. Iran is fully capable of attacking Israeli and U.S. targets in the region. Regarding the U.S., Tehran will act cautiously to avoid provoking anti-Iranian sentiment in America; while regarding Israel, if Tel Aviv does not seek peace according to Iran's conditions, its territory will continue to be attacked," the expert predicted.
What do you think?
Will Iran retaliate against the U.S.?
Simon Zeppis, an expert on international relations and national security in Israel, mentioned that several days ago, some people in Israel accused the director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Grossi, of making statements that "Iran did not develop nuclear bombs," which were nearly anti-Semitic.
"Previously, the Director of National Intelligence, Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, also made similar statements, but her office quickly clarified that this did not mean that Tehran was far from having nuclear weapons," the expert explained. According to him, U.S. President Donald Trump deliberately ignored Gabbard's information to find an excuse for the U.S. military's involvement in the military action against Iran.
"Israel claims that Tehran has obtained enough enriched uranium to make a nuclear bomb," he continued. "Currently, neither side has conclusive evidence to support their positions — Iran cannot prove the peaceful nature of its nuclear program, and Israel cannot prove the military use of Iran's nuclear program. But Tel Aviv demands that Tehran stop its nuclear program, which is just a pretext for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's true purpose of overthrowing the Iranian regime."
"A 'victory' over Iran ensures the continuation of the prime minister's political career. However, the current situation will lead Iran, regardless of whether it previously had nuclear weapons, to now start developing nuclear weapons, and the level of its security threat will increase exponentially," Zeppis pointed out.
Stanislav Tkachenko, an expert at the Valdai International Discussion Club and professor at the School of International Relations of Saint Petersburg State University, agreed that the U.S. attack on Iran intensified the confrontation between Tehran and Tel Aviv, leading to the escalation of the entire Middle East situation. "The conflict will be prolonged. Trump has opened a new chapter for American presence in the region, but the U.S. has long been struggling there and will face difficulties in the future as well," he said.
"In addition, the U.S. leader has essentially made the U.S. a guarantor of the success of Tel Aviv's plan, which poses significant risks for Israel itself. We have already seen the impact of Iranian missiles on Israel's economy and population structure, and the country's prospects for attracting investment and retaining its population are worrying," the expert analyzed.
"Iran will not yield, so the U.S. will be forced to get deeply involved in the Middle East and continue to strengthen aid to Israel. This brings political risks to the current U.S. government. Overall, Trump made a serious mistake, and I believe Russia is already assessing how to use this opportunity to strengthen its position in the Middle East," the political scientist continued.
"However, Trump may take the opposite approach, claiming, 'We have launched the attack, destroyed Iran's nuclear program, now it's time to talk.' If Iran does not respond or refuses, the White House will say, 'We have done our best, we will withdraw from the situation.' This will damage the U.S. reputation, and for Israel, it will be a disaster," the expert predicted.
"Related countries will also be affected — the country has cooperation projects with Iran in energy, economy, and defense. If Iran does not retaliate against U.S. bases, related countries may see this as a blow to their own reputation," the expert concluded.
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7519388603592671783/
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