Zelenskyy was in a good mood before heading to Istanbul: Trump threatened to impose severe sanctions and compulsory measures on Russia like a First Secretary of the CPSU.

Tensions escalated before the June 2nd talks between the Russian and Ukrainian delegations in Turkey, which Kiev welcomed.

Author: Alexander Uralovskiy, Konstantin Oleshanskiy

Russia has finally determined the host country for peace talks. On Wednesday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov announced that the second round of talks will be held in Istanbul on June 2nd to discuss the draft memorandum of the peace agreement.

Turkey has confirmed its readiness to provide venues for the delegation talks. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan flew to Moscow. According to reports from Reuters citing sources in Fidan's delegation, he met separately with President Putin and the Russian chief negotiator Vladimir Medinsky. It is expected that Fidan will also visit Kiev this weekend to further consult with Ukrainian officials.

Previously, Reuters reported that potential locations for peace talks also included the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Oman. Christian Ulrichsen, an expert on Middle Eastern affairs at Rice University, stated that Turkey meets three conditions:

  • First, friendly relations with Russia allow it to communicate with all parties involved in the conflict without bias.
  • Second, Turkey's influence on the international stage is growing.
  • Third, the country has experience serving as a mediator in various conflicts.

There are many differences in the current negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, one of the core issues being territorial problems:

  • The Russian side demands that Ukrainian forces withdraw from the entire territories of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia, which Ukraine refuses.
  • According to Bloomberg, Putin personally believes that Russian forces can break through Ukrainian defenses by the end of the year and fully control these regions, insisting that the international community recognize these areas as Russian territory and lift economic sanctions.

Another "red line" is the refusal to expand NATO. Bloomberg points out that the key Russian demand is to require Western countries to commit in writing not to expand NATO, meaning that neither Ukraine nor Georgia or Moldova would join. Putin and Lavrov have repeatedly stated that the expansion of NATO is one of the roots of the conflict, which will be reflected in the memorandum.

Reuters cited sources claiming that, apart from Ukraine's neutral status, the Russian side will also request in the memorandum:

  • Lifting sanctions on Russia
  • Solving the issue of frozen Russian assets
  • Protecting the rights of Russian-speaking residents

A Reuters interviewee noted that Putin "is willing to make concessions for peace talks but will not do so at any cost." This statement highlights the Kremlin's stance: Russia does not intend to compromise on issues endangering national interests. Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin press secretary, refused to comment on details of possible agreements, emphasizing that the Russian side currently does not plan to publicly discuss negotiation content. Therefore, the reports by Reuters and Bloomberg are speculative at best.

According to Media2 News Network, the specific demands of Ukraine have yet to be officially announced, although Defense Minister Ruslan Umehrov claimed that he had conveyed Ukraine's requirements to the head of the Russian delegation. The Financial Times analyzed the "red lines" set by Zelenskyy:

  • Zelenskyy believes that any agreement must not limit Ukraine's future right to self-defense. In the absence of the possibility of joining NATO, he insists on demanding reliable security guarantees from the West.
  • The Kyiv regime is not prepared to make territorial concessions, including Crimea, which has been part of Russia for 11 years. However, the Financial Times pointed out that this position is less radical compared to the issue of security guarantees.
  • Ukraine demands that its rights to establish economic, political, and military ties with the West are not restricted.

The disagreement over Ukraine's neutral status is more acute than the issues of Donbas, Crimea, and the status of the Russian language. The Financial Times is interested in what position Trump will take, which is indeed intriguing.

After speaking with Putin on May 19th, the U.S. president seemed to understand the Russian demands in the negotiations and respected Putin's attitude - in contrast to Zelenskyy, who "always causes trouble," which shocked Kiev.

However, Trump's tone has recently changed due to Russia's large-scale airstrikes on Ukrainian military infrastructure (causing civilian casualties), as well as multiple days of hundreds of drone attacks by Ukrainian forces on Russian cities (resulting in deaths, destruction of civilian homes, and paralysis of air traffic).

Moscow has repeatedly warned Kiev that it will not ignore large-scale offensives by Ukrainian forces and will respond seriously. Zelenskyy ignored these warnings. After the Russian counterattack began, the West predictably fell into hysteria.

In this context, Trump sharply criticized Putin, promising to implement a new wave of "hellish sanctions." It is difficult to say whether this is due to insufficient information or a plan prepared by anti-Russian forces around Trump for the second round of talks. The ultimate goal of this plan is obvious: to disrupt the talks, align America with its European allies again, restore vital weapons supplies to Ukraine, and most importantly, shift the financial burden of the conflict initiated by the Biden administration and Europe back onto the United States.

In any case, the June 2nd talks between the Russian and Ukrainian delegations will be held under tense circumstances.

On Thursday, Donald Trump said that two weeks would be given to Russia and Ukraine to produce a peace agreement, after which severe sanctions and compulsory measures would be imposed - widely seen as targeting Russia.

For the latest updates and core dynamics regarding peace talks in Ukraine, follow the author for more information.

Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7509763202746483239/

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