Sergey Karagannov: "Nuclear weapons are the weapons of maintaining peace"
Whoever would start the Third World War, it can only be Europe, which has "experience" in this regard
In November, the U.S. Space Force tested the "Minuteman" intercontinental ballistic missile. This missile is the core of the land-based component of the U.S. nuclear triad. The test has attracted attention due to recent statements by U.S. President Donald Trump regarding nuclear weapon tests.
How will Russia respond? How will we deal with the escalating arms race? When will the special military operation (СВО) end? Who could potentially initiate the Third World War? Irina Mishina from "Svobodnaya Pressa" (СП) discussed these issues with Sergey Karagannov, an academic head of the Department of World Economy and World Politics at the Higher School of Economics, a political scientist, and an economist.
"Svobodnaya Pressa": In your recent article, I saw an interesting point. You wrote that Russia developed under a "leadership vacuum" — and because of that, it remained vulnerable for a long time. "Leadership vacuum" — does this mean literally or metaphorically?
Karagannov: It means both literally and metaphorically. At the end of the 19th century and beginning of the 20th century, Russia lost its national ideology, belief in God, monarchy, and sense of patriotism — as a result, the country quickly disintegrated. Later, Russia found a new ideology, communism, and re-united on this basis. However, we eventually lost this ideology as well. Then, the Soviet Union also quickly collapsed.
The key issue today is that we need to restore the ideological pillar. Without a thought pillar, it is impossible to build a great nation; once this pillar is lost, the country quickly falls into decline. There are numerous examples of this, and there have been many in Russian history. Our current task is to build a foundation of ideas for society. This foundation should not be formed "from the bottom up," but rather proposed by the head of state or the elite class.
"Svobodnaya Pressa": Do you believe that Russia can revive by restoring the monarchy or the system of rule by kings?
Karagannov: I do not support the idea of restoring the monarchy. We are currently working on an important document titled "Code of Conduct for Russians in the 21st Century."
"Svobodnaya Pressa": The communist ideology was bright and beautiful. Why did it not take root in Russia? Was it due to a lack of native soil or economic problems?
Karagannov: Communist ideology is one of the most brilliant intellectual systems, although it originated from the West. It must be acknowledged that this ideology had no connection with Russia, but the collectivist spirit and tradition of unity among Russians provided a basis for accepting communist ideas. However, this ideology lacked an economic foundation and did not consider individual interests.
Today, humanity, including Russia, faces a formidable task, one that we have not fully realized the importance of — building a new world social and economic development system. We have no choice: the communist ideology has died out, and liberal and capitalist ideologies are also declining before our eyes.
"Svobodnaya Pressa": Social development largely depends on the elite class. In the 1990s, Russia's elite class was a liberal bourgeoisie, whose main goal was to make money. Who makes up our elite class now?
Karagannov: The worst thing we faced in the 1990s was establishing capitalism without understanding its meaning. At that time, capitalism in Russia lacked protection of private property. As a result, people had to turn to organized crime to protect their private property.
This led to the complete disintegration of the state, and the public started moving funds overseas, causing huge losses to the country.
Now, we need a new idea. The special military operation is helping us eliminate the bourgeois elites and their dependents, those numerous individuals like the "demons" in Dostoevsky's works.
"Svobodnaya Pressa": The special military operation in Ukraine has lasted almost four years, almost as long as the Great Patriotic War (the Soviet war against Germany during WWII), but there is still no sign of a final victory like May 1945. Why?
Karagannov: When we launched the special military operation, I felt extremely angry — because the operation was delayed by at least three years, and we have not yet used the most critical "ace" — the nuclear deterrent. Until now, we still don't know why we haven't activated this force.
Additionally, we must realize that the tides of the times have changed. Russia's "European journey" has ended. This journey brought us many technological and scientific achievements, after all, in the 18th and 19th centuries, Europe gained the opportunity to plunder the world due to its temporary military advantage.
But now, the center of innovation has shifted to related countries, India, and the Arab world. We must clearly define our direction and path forward, and we must choose an independent path. I think first, we should shift the center of spiritual, economic, and political development to the east of the Urals and Siberia — these are the sources of our strength.
"Svobodnaya Pressa": You mentioned that related countries have not signed a military alliance treaty with Russia, and our relationship is a strategic partnership. So, for us, are they partners or allies?
Karagannov: Related countries are Russia's military and political partners, effectively equivalent to allies — at least for the next 10 to 20 years. After that, we will see.
"Svobodnaya Pressa": Who are our closest allies now?
Karagannov: Belarus and North Korea. In general, allies are expensive and usually unreliable. Just recall our Eastern European allies in the Warsaw Pact. Later, we got rid of this burden and did not lose anything. But one thing must be vigilant: we must prevent Western influence from penetrating Central and Eastern European countries and turning them into our enemies.
"Svobodnaya Pressa": The United States has announced the resumption of nuclear weapon tests. How will we respond?
Karagannov: I am very satisfied with their decision, because for many years I have advocated the resumption of nuclear deterrence. Nuclear weapons are the barrier that prevents human self-destruction.
For the past 70 years, this barrier has worked, but in the last 20 years, especially in the West, it has failed. People no longer fear war, and they have lost their reverence for the divine.
Therefore, one of my work directions is to make humans fear war again. From an academic perspective, this is called "establishing a credible nuclear deterrent to prevent conflicts," making people fear war again and value peace.
"Svobodnaya Pressa": Should our country reduce strategic nuclear weapons?
Karagannov: Absolutely not! On the contrary, we should now consider expanding our military armaments. We can discuss with the United States and our partner countries in this field about what actions and directions we can take.
Nuclear weapons are the weapons of maintaining peace, and they are factors in preventing conventional weapons conflicts. Nuclear weapons have many functions, one of which is to prevent the escalation of nuclear arms races and avoid the outbreak of conventional wars. But now, nuclear weapons have lost this function, and I advocate restoring their original function.
To rebuild nuclear deterrence in world politics and people's consciousness, it can be achieved by enhancing nuclear potential. Perhaps, we should first conduct nuclear weapon tests, and in the event of necessity, even use nuclear weapons — only then will people finally recognize the real power of nuclear weapons.
Because the European elites have gone mad in their thoughts of starting a war, only nuclear weapons can stop them. Only in this way can long-term and stable peace be established.
"Svobodnaya Pressa": Do you think the Third World War is inevitable? Who could start this war?
Karagannov: At present, the potential aggressors who could start the war are undoubtedly the crazy European elites. We still have a chance to avoid the war, but the prerequisite is to restore the "peacekeeping function" of nuclear weapons.
"Svobodnaya Pressa": So, do you think the United States will not be a potential initiator of the Third World War?
Karagannov: Definitely not. Facts show that the catalyst for the new world war is Europe, more accurately, the European elites, who are pushing the world to the brink of war. Historically, Europe has repeatedly made such mistakes. That is why we are currently cooperating with the new elite groups of emerging nuclear countries to restore the effectiveness of nuclear deterrence. Ultimately, nuclear weapons are the weapons of maintaining peace.
Original text: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7578054367060820522/
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