Maxim Shevchenko: Yes, the US has the capability to bomb Iran back to the Stone Age - but the cost would be extremely heavy

"Tehran will never use nuclear weapons against Israel, and for Trump, war would be a disaster"

Author: Mikhail Zubov

Experts who participated in the comments:

  • Maxim Shevchenko

On June 23, Vladimir Putin met with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Arakchi at the Kremlin. The Russian president pointed out during the meeting with the Iranian diplomat that this discussion took place during a difficult period for the Islamic Republic and informed Arakchi that he had spoken by phone with US President Donald Trump about the Middle East situation.

At the same time, the leadership of the US and Iran have issued increasingly severe threats to each other, but have not taken any direct actions. This is like "pre-game trash talk" between two teams - claiming to defeat the opponent, but ending up in a draw. Is this analogy appropriate? Journalist, political scientist, and orientalist Maxim Shevchenko explained this in "Free Media":

"'Pre-game trash talk' may appear in football or hockey matches, but there is no so-called 'trash talk' on major political issues - especially when the cost of the issue is very high."

The cost for Iran could be a large number of civilian deaths and great destruction, because the US indeed has the capability to "bomb Iran back to the Stone Age".

And for Trump, a long-term war with Iran would be a political disaster.

In other words, both sides risk losses.

Now let's analyze the details: The philosophy and worldview of Shia Islam in Iran does not deny "heroic sacrifice". Shia Muslims are prepared for death - they are educated to accept it, following the example of the martyrdom of Karbala. In 680 AD, the grandson of the Prophet Muhammad, Hussein ibn Ali, along with dozens of his followers, went to battle against the governor of Syria, Yazid ibn Muawiyah, and were all bravely martyred, their heads cut off.

This readiness for heroic death is what Alexander Dugin called the "logos" (core spirit) of different civilizations and cultures.

The "logos" of Americans is completely different: The founding documents of the United States declare that American citizens exist to pursue happiness and wealth - to accumulate achievements and capital, passing them on to future generations. The happiness of Americans is accumulating wealth and passing it on to descendants. Heroic sacrifice is completely incompatible with the values of Americans (and even Israelis). In this sense, Iranians have a significant psychological advantage over Americans and Jews.

Against an opponent like the Shia Muslims of Iran, who are willing to make self-sacrifices, Israel can never win. But can the US do it? What would be the cost?

Question (SP): Besides the loss of Trump's "peace maker" reputation, what cost might the US pay?

Shevchenko: Iran does not have nuclear weapon delivery systems capable of reaching the US mainland - although I firmly believe Iran has nuclear weapons. However, Iran has the capability to destroy US military bases in the Middle East, as well as America's "floating coffins" (aircraft carriers). For Trump, this would be a terrible failure.

But the key point is that in such a situation, the Americans would have to bomb Iranian cities - not precise strikes, but massive attacks, resulting in condemnation from the entire world for their atrocities.

The Americans have not yet washed away their crimes in Yugoslavia. I witnessed it myself: They intended to strike strategic targets, but mistakenly bombed a kindergarten, killing innocent Serbian children, which caused huge protests domestically in the US.

Now imagine if the US bombed Iranian cities, how would American Muslims protest? This would be a catastrophic outbreak of anti-war movements in Washington.

Therefore, Trump wants to show that he is not doing nothing, supports Israel, but does not want to go to war with Iran. Therefore, the US Defense Secretary Austin said the US is not fighting with the Iranian army, and the US Vice President Pence also stated the US is not in a state of war with Iran - Austin even repeated this statement twice. It is rare: You launch an attack on suspected Iranian nuclear facilities, but claim these attacks are not targeting the Iranian army.

Meanwhile, the Iranian army attacked Israel with rockets equivalent to 1.5 tons of TNT, while the US told Tehran: "Don't bomb Israel, we Americans are not attacking you, we just oppose Iran's possible nuclear program."

Evidently, both Iran and the US are trying their best to avoid losing face.

Question: Iran says they have never made a nuclear bomb, but have a lot of uranium, which can be enriched and sold at a high price, and nuclear bombs are useless for them.

Shevchenko: I also think Iran does not need a nuclear bomb - although they probably have one for precautionary reasons. But where would Iran use it?

The only country Iran might use a nuclear weapon against is Israel, but every inch of Israeli land has Islamic holy sites.

Iran does not recognize the existence of Israel, but only sees "partially occupied Palestine". They would never bomb Palestine with a nuclear weapon - it is a holy site.

Iran has no other targets in the region, and maintains normal or nearly normal relations with other countries.

Iran is like the Soviet Union: It is always ready for war, but yearns for peace. In fact, Iran is a very peaceful civilization.

They curse the US and Israel, just as the Soviet Union once cursed capitalism and its ruthless exploitation of the working people, but this is not a reason to bomb other countries.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7519440866176401983/

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