(By Zhang Zhifeng, Edited by Zhou Fangyuan)
"As of the end of April this year, China's installed capacity of renewable energy power generation reached 2.017 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 58%; the combined installed capacity of wind and photovoltaic reached 1.53 billion kilowatts, historically surpassing the installed capacity of thermal power." On June 5th, Song Hongkun, deputy director of the National Energy Administration, stated at the press conference.
The industry generally believes that this marks an important step forward in China's energy structure transformation towards clean and low-carbon development.
For a long time, thermal power has dominated China's energy structure. The surpassing of wind and photovoltaic installation capacities indicates that renewable energy is increasingly prominent in energy supply, which helps reduce reliance on traditional fossil fuels, lower carbon emissions, and promote the achievement of carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals.
From the perspective of economic benefits, Jin Xin, co-chairman of Shangfang Clean Energy Technology Co., Ltd., told Guancha Observer Network that including the full life cycle depreciation cost and operation management costs of power generation equipment, the cost of photovoltaic power generation is less than 0.2 yuan per kilowatt-hour, while for thermal power, only some pit mouth coal power can reach this level, with the national average thermal power generation cost being over 0.3 yuan per kilowatt-hour. Moreover, reducing the proportion of thermal power in social electricity consumption not only makes it more environmentally friendly and cleaner but can also significantly reduce the dependence on non-renewable resources such as coal and slow down the consumption rate of domestic resources. Therefore, vigorously developing clean energy sources like photovoltaic and wind power is of great significance for reducing total social costs and ensuring sustainable development.
Wind and photovoltaic installations have maintained double-digit growth for four consecutive years.
Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the "Opinions on Deepening the Improvement of 'Electricity Access' Services and Building a Modern Electricity Business Environment" (hereinafter referred to as the "Opinions"). This press conference was held around this topic.
What is meant by "electricity access" is a major indicator used internationally to evaluate the business environment for electricity use. Simply put, it measures from the perspective of enterprises and the public whether applying for electricity and finally using it is expensive, fast, or good.
In September 2020, with the approval of the State Council, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the "Opinions on Comprehensively Improving 'Electricity Access' Service Levels and Continuously Optimizing the Electricity Business Environment," promoting the reform work of "electricity access" nationwide.
Song Hongkun pointed out that after the joint efforts of all parties over nearly five years, China has basically achieved full coverage of "three zeros" and "three savings" services. That is, zero trips, zero approvals, and zero investments for low-voltage users applying for electricity, and saving time, effort, and money for high-voltage users. A cumulative investment saving of over 300 billion yuan has been achieved for users, fundamentally improving the national electricity business environment. "Electricity Access" has become a gold-plated brand for power supply services in China.
He introduced that the "Opinions" are an update and upgrade of the documents issued in 2020, aiming to achieve the "fiveizations" goal by 2029, namely, basically building a modern electricity business environment characterized by convenient handling, high-quality power supply, green electricity use, inclusive service, and coordinated supervision, effectively assisting in the construction of Chinese-style modernization.
This includes the construction of renewable energy sources such as wind power and photovoltaics as an important part.
Looking back reveals that at the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan period in 2020, the combined installed capacity of China's wind and photovoltaic power generation was only 535 million kilowatts, less than half of thermal power (which was then 1.245 billion kilowatts). During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the cumulative increase exceeded 186%.
Viewed by the year-over-year growth rate of cumulative installed capacity, since 2021, the installed capacity of China's wind and photovoltaic power generation has continued to maintain double-digit growth. Since July 2023, the year-over-year growth rate of photovoltaic installed capacity has consistently been above 40%, and since September 2023, the year-over-year growth rate of wind power installed capacity has remained above 15%.
Song Hongkun stated that as of the end of April this year, China's installed capacity of renewable energy power generation reached 2.017 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 58%; the combined installed capacity of wind and photovoltaic reached 1.53 billion kilowatts, historically surpassing the installed capacity of thermal power. In 2024, China's newly added installed capacity of renewable energy was 373 million kilowatts, accounting for approximately 86% of the total newly added power generation installed capacity; the newly added installed capacity of renewable energy has continuously exceeded 300 million kilowatts for two consecutive years, accounting for more than 50% of the global newly added installed capacity.
Grid connection, consumption, and intelligent dispatching issues are more critical.
It is worth noting that the installed capacity mentioned here does not represent actual power generation, and power generation does not mean complete consumption.
Firstly, the power generation output of wind and photovoltaic is directly affected by weather conditions, exhibiting intermittency and volatility. Particularly for wind power, its fluctuations are large and difficult to predict. Data shows that the annual utilization hours of thermal power usually exceed 5000 hours, while the annual average utilization hours of wind power are generally between 2000 and 2500 hours, and photovoltaic power is even lower, only 1000 to 1500 hours. Both are subject to natural resource constraints and cannot provide stable output.
Secondly, during power generation and transmission, the intermittent power generation of wind and photovoltaic puts pressure on the power grid's power balance, increasing the difficulty and risk of grid operation. This requires the construction of more intelligent and automated scheduling capabilities and investments in peaking and frequency modulation assets. During the power transmission and usage process, it is also constrained by the flexible transmission and distribution capabilities of the grid infrastructure and the load consumption capability of electricity usage. Additionally, during the gradual advancement of China's electricity market reforms, the game among various market entities and with national macro-industry policies significantly affects the pattern of clean energy power stations in terms of power generation, transmission, distribution, and consumption.
Jin Xin pointed out that this means we cannot simply replace traditional power supply methods such as thermal power through the quantity growth of wind and photovoltaic installations. Although China's total electricity consumption continues to grow steadily, and overall consumption capacity is constantly improving, the aforementioned three constraints have led to many cases of abandoned wind and abandoned light phenomena. From a theoretical standpoint, if the power transmission and distribution infrastructure were stronger, intelligent scheduling capabilities improved rapidly, and electricity market reforms advanced more scientifically and quickly, the share of clean energy such as wind and photovoltaic in total social electricity consumption could safely expand to 30%-40% within the next 3-5 years, and society can expect our electricity costs to gradually decrease over time rather than increase with inflation.
In fact, looking at recent data trends, China's wind and photovoltaic power generation and consumption levels have grown rapidly overall.
Data disclosed by the National Energy Administration shows that in 2024, China's renewable energy power generation reached 3.47 trillion kilowatt-hours, accounting for about 35% of total power generation.
In the first quarter, the combined power generation of wind and photovoltaic reached 536.4 billion kilowatt-hours, accounting for 22.5% of total social electricity consumption, an increase of 4.3 percentage points compared to the same period last year. In the first quarter, the combined power generation of wind and photovoltaic increased by 111 billion kilowatt-hours year-over-year, far exceeding the同期 increase in total social electricity consumption (58.2 billion kilowatt-hours).
At the end of last year, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration specifically issued the "Implementation Plan for the Optimization Special Action of Power System Regulation Capacity (2025-2027)." In promoting the planning and construction of regulation resources, improving the regulation resource dispatching method, and perfecting the participation mechanism of regulation resources in the market, multiple key tasks were arranged and deployed to support the reasonable consumption and utilization of more than 200 million kilowatts of new energy each year from 2025 to 2027. It is clearly stated that by 2027, the national utilization rate of new energy will not be less than 90%.
As one of the largest energy consumers and carbon emitters in the world, China's surpassing of wind and photovoltaic installation capacities has made significant contributions to global energy transformation and climate change response, providing valuable experience and examples for other countries.
"However, we should also face the difficulties and implement effective solutions as soon as possible," Jin Xin said. The speed of landing intelligent grid dispatching applications and the scientific construction speed of the power market system are actually slower than the speed of new energy equipment research and development and installation. More reliance on manual scheduling and incomplete market mechanisms among various market participants have amplified the instability and volatility of new energy power generation, leading to serious waste. Currently, similar problems exist worldwide, including in developed countries. China, with its relatively greater advantages in industrial resource capabilities, policy-making capabilities, and capital capabilities in the clean energy sector compared to Europe and America, is expected to solve these problems at a faster pace.
In addition, Jin Xin pointed out that the installation capacity of clean energy sources such as wind and light is ultimately constrained by the overall domestic consumption capacity. The rapid installation speed of the past two years is unsustainable, and the global installation growth rate is unlikely to grow as dramatically as China's. Therefore, the manufacturing end of China's photovoltaic and wind power will face severe overcapacity problems in the coming years, potentially leading to the exit of many companies from the market. There is an urgent need for strong guidance and assistance from the national level. In addition to curbing the disorderly expansion of capacity, the effective measures to break through the ceiling of domestic installed capacity include the connectivity of the Eurasian continent's power grids in the Belt and Road Initiative and the export of Chinese electricity.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7512874880803766822/
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