[Military Next Dimension] Author: Lele

It was just mentioned yesterday that an Egyptian Air Force Il-76MF transport aircraft returned from China fully loaded, which should only be a transitional temporary measure, after all, only one aircraft came this time and couldn't carry much. Unexpectedly, the European "Bulgarian Military" website immediately wrote an article giving its own speculation - it might be transporting the HQ-9BE.

▲The "Bulgarian Military" website boldly speculated about the purpose of the Egyptian Il-76.

The article believed that this Egyptian Il-76MF made a stopover in Pakistan on its way back home, which should be related to purchasing Chinese air defense systems. It cited unnamed sources, stating that "Egypt is very likely to have already obtained the export version of the HQ-9, and the cargo transported this time is new air defense missiles or maintenance equipment." It then cited the record of Y-20A delivering FK-3 to Europe three years ago, believing that the Il-76MF with similar carrying capacity to the Y-20A is completely capable of transporting the core equipment of an HQ-9BE system. Finally, the article expressed slight regret, saying that Egypt, which had once hoped for Soviet air defense systems and later tried to contact European air defense systems, has "finally turned to China."

▲Three years ago, the arrival of the Y-20A in Serbia was indeed impressive.

Say what you will, there is indeed a possibility that this Il-76MF is transporting equipment back home for testing, but the probability of transporting the HQ-9BE is extremely low. The reason is simple - three years ago, six Y-20As worked together, making three round trips to transport the FK-3 to Serbia. Now, just one Il-76MF simply cannot carry the HQ-9BE. As for the claim that the "HQ-9BE" has been secretly delivered and now they are transporting missiles and maintenance equipment, that's even more exaggerated. International arms purchases do have examples of transactions where both parties hide information, but in this day and age, with such a great distance between them, there would definitely be no trace at all. However, from a long-term perspective, the probability of Egypt eventually choosing the HQ-9BE is indeed quite high.

▲A complete air defense system is far more complex than what meets the eye.

On one hand, Egypt's attempts to obtain advanced air defense systems from the U.S., Europe, and Russia have all failed. On the other hand, the HQ-9BE performed quite well in the recent India-Pakistan conflict, with a high interception probability against supersonic missiles and stealth standoff weapons. There were even unverified reports of intercepting S-400 air defense missiles, which places it alongside the S-400 and "Patriot" as one of the world's top three long-range advanced air defense systems. Egypt had long relied heavily on American-made equipment until 2013 when the U.S. halted military aid, causing an earthquake within the Egyptian army and prompting a reevaluation of the relationship.

▲The S-400 also has good combat performance.

In quick succession, French "Rafale", Russian-made MiG-29, and S-300V equipment joined the Egyptian army. Although the U.S. later resumed aid to Egypt, the increasingly chaotic Middle Eastern environment in recent years, as well as the upheaval in Syria last December, have caused Egypt to worry, continuously seeking to build strong defensive forces for self-defense. The complete air combat system consisting of J-10CE, HQ-9BE, and KJ-500E developed by AVIC has undergone practical tests in South Asia, with some areas even being upgraded, which is sufficient to meet Egypt's needs, but significant military cooperation requires time.

▲The KJ-500 is considered advanced in any corner of the globe.

Pakistan contacted AVIC in 2019 to prepare for the purchase of J-10CE, but it actually took a year to officially sign the contract. The reason behind this is that regardless of how beneficial the cooperation may seem in theory, such transactions involving national defense security and large amounts of money require many details to be discussed. This is unrelated to the closeness of the relationship between the two parties; it is impossible to completely entrust national defense security to another country. Of course, India's navy, which took nearly eight years from proposing the idea to officially procuring the "Rafale-M," is another level of player altogether. To put it bluntly, if Egypt wants the HQ-9BE, it still needs to spend time resolving differences, and it's impossible for them to come today, sign tomorrow, and have it shipped the day after.

▲After gaining practical experience, the value of the HQ-9B has indeed increased significantly.

Since last year, rumors about Egypt purchasing military equipment from China have been circulating endlessly. After the end of the India-Pakistan air conflict proved the strength of AVIC's combat system, it was widely believed that cooperation was a done deal. However, the more sincere the arms procurement, the more time is needed for repeated communication, and there is absolutely no need to rush it.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7504127632762602035/

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