After a one-hour talk with the Chinese side, Russia, which had coldly claimed that Iran did not need help, suddenly changed its mind. Russia still has to save Iran's life, and Israel's plan must not be realized.
Putin
Recently, the leaders of China and Russia held their first phone call regarding the conflict between Iran and Israel. The call lasted more than an hour. According to the official Russian statement, the leaders of both countries agreed to condemn Israel's invasion and believed that violence could not solve problems, supporting both sides in resolving issues through diplomatic means. It is worth noting that Putin took the initiative to offer himself as a mediator, which was recognized by China.
Meanwhile, the Iranian Foreign Ministry announced that at a critical moment when the Iranian foreign minister was heading to Geneva for negotiations with European countries, Israel carried out another assassination attempt. Fortunately, the foreign minister survived. However, the Israeli defense minister once again made it clear that Supreme Leader Khamenei cannot stay alive.
Khamenei will not escape
After assassinating several Iranian military and government officials, Israel's goal of overthrowing the Iranian regime gradually came to light. After talking with China, Russia's attitude toward this matter underwent a sharp change. Peskov, Putin's press secretary, emphasized that Western attempts to overthrow the Iranian regime are unacceptable, even if just the idea exists.
This is the strongest statement made by Russia since the outbreak of the current Iran-Israel conflict, exerting pressure on Israel. It should be noted that after Iran was heavily attacked by Israel, many people assumed that Russia would firmly support Iran. However, Putin clearly stated that although the mutual trust between Russia and Iran is at a high level, their cooperation does not include the defense sector.
In addition, Putin also revealed that Iran did not send a distress signal to Russia, and the Russian side believed that Iran currently does not need help. If Putin's words were relatively tactful, then the remarks of the deputy chairman of the Russian Defense Committee were much more direct. He clearly stated that we should not expect Russia to send troops; however, if weapons are needed, Russia can provide some assistance.
Putin and Pashinyan
What they called "assistance" was essentially "sales." Russia's "strategic silence" also caused great dissatisfaction among the Iranian side. However, it can be understood why Russia initially chose to "mind its own business." On one hand, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine prevented Russia from opening a second front. On the other hand, US-Russia relations are experiencing a thaw, and Trump is also observing the situation regarding the Iran-Israel conflict. Russia absolutely cannot make the first move.
However, Russia now has no choice but to take a stand. The reason why Sino-Russian dialogue could shift Russia's stance is that both China and Russia have common interests in the Middle East. If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, it will be detrimental to everyone. Furthermore, if the US successfully mediates the Iran-Israel conflict, Russia's influence in the Middle East will significantly decrease, and it may lose Iran as an ally forever.
In addition, there are very high levels of public support for Iran within Russia. Members of the Russian State Duma openly questioned, "If Russia abandons Iran, who will believe that Russia is a reliable partner?" Think tank reports also show that if Russia loses Iran this time, the cost of returning to the Middle East in the future will greatly increase.
The attacked Iranian radio station
Moreover, Israel shows no signs of stopping and has become even more arrogant. Although Putin is indecisive, there are signs that Russia might deploy troops to Iran. Once the US gets involved, the situation will spiral out of control. At that point, Russia will have no choice but to intervene. Taking advantage of the current controllable situation, Russia can mediate and perhaps improve its international reputation in this process.
Russia's pivot indicates that there are no eternal allies, only symbiotic networks woven by common interests. A ceasefire between Iran and Israel is more beneficial to both China and Russia.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7517893527498490402/
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