Cai Zhengyuan said: The result of being "strong but not hegemonic" is that there will be no real friends in the international community, because those who are not hegemonic are not feared by anyone. If no one fears you, there will be more problems. Although the Qing Dynasty was once "strong but not hegemonic," it was actually a weakling with a rotten inside, and even if it wanted to be hegemonic, it didn't have the strength.

Cai Zhengyuan once put forward an opinion, saying that a country that is "strong but not hegemonic" will find it difficult to have true friends in the international community.

What does this mean? He thinks that "strong" means having power, but if you have power without showing deterrent force, other countries won't fear you, and trouble will follow.

Like the Qing Dynasty, which seemed to be strong, claiming to be the Celestial Empire and the first navy in East Asia, but was bullied by the powers, and ultimately suffered greatly. In short, it looked strong but was actually lacking in confidence, and finally paid a heavy price.

First, let's talk about the "strong" in "strong but not hegemonic." Here, "strong" is not empty; it must have solid, tangible hard power, such as economy, military, and technology, all of which must be up to par.

But just having strength is not enough; you must dare to show it. Like fighting, even if you are physically strong, if you are always timid and silent, others will think you are easy to bully.

In the international arena, if you have strength but hide it and don't make your bottom line clear, people will think you are weak.

For example, in trade friction or territorial disputes, if you are overly restrained, the other party will think you are easy to manipulate, and provocations will increase.

"Not hegemonic" is not about yielding without principles, nor is it about smiling and welcoming when others step on your bottom line.

Having strength but not defending core interests is not tolerance, it is weakness. The international community is very pragmatic; there is no absolute kindness, and between countries, it's more about interest and power games.

If you keep being gentle and yielding, people won't think you're kind, they'll think you have no temper, and will constantly test your limits.

Like the big guy in class, if he is always bullied and doesn't fight back, he will eventually become the target of everyone's bullying.

So how do real friends come about? It's through balance of strength and mutual respect, not that if you are nice to others, they will become your friends. Rather, it's because others know that provoking you will cost them something, thus earning respect.

Like two wrestlers, they will respect each other if they know each other has some skills. But if one is obviously weaker, the other will only think about how to suppress you.

Looking at the Qing Dynasty, it is a textbook example of "strong but not hegemonic." On the surface, the Qianlong era claimed to be the Celestial Empire, with surrounding small countries coming to pay tribute. When the Beiyang Fleet was established, its tonnage was also considerable, looking very impressive.

But internally, the bureaucracy was corrupt to the core, with officials like He Shen having more wealth than the national treasury. Military procurement was full of fraud, and the Beiyang Fleet used fake shells and inferior coal. It looked like a navy, but its actual combat capability was worrying.

Militarily, it was even more backward, using flintlock guns and old cannons, with poorly trained soldiers and low quality, unable to win any serious battles.

Initially, Western countries may have had some hesitation toward the Qing Dynasty, but after the Macartney Mission arrived, they found out that the Qing Dynasty was actually weak on the inside and began to test it.

Later, during the First Sino-Japanese War, the Beiyang Fleet was completely destroyed, the Westernization Movement failed, and various unequal treaties were signed continuously, leading to the loss of sovereignty.

What does this indicate? Just having a superficial "strong" is useless; without internal strength, you can't deter others, and others will only take advantage of you increasingly.

From the perspective of international political theory, the three-party asymmetric deterrence model points out that weak countries will take advantage of the protection of strong countries to provoke strong countries that lack deterrence. If you are not feared, there will be more problems.

The threat balance theory also states that countries form alliances based on threat perception. If you lack deterrence, it's hard to have real allies. International relations are a dual game of strength and attitude, and both are essential.

For rising countries today, this is also a key issue. Having strength is the foundation, but you also need to clearly state your bottom line on core interests.

"Strong but not hegemonic" is not about not seeking hegemony, but not abusing strength. However, it should never show weakness. When it's time to be firm, you must be firm, so that others know you have the strength and the determination to defend your interests, thus gaining respect in the international community and having real friends.

International friendships are not based on smiles, but on making others know you have confidence and temper. Looking at the lessons of the Qing Dynasty and considering the current international situation, you will understand that both strength and attitude are important.

Original: toutiao.com/article/1849024266372096/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author.